[stevenash]

Sound advice. Do you post your plays on SBR?

frequently

[JMon]

Nash ^

I noticed you said "all season" and I agree. But for one NOT to bet on a fav when the time is right is down right fukking losing money.

"Look at depleted bullpens, look at batter vs, pitcher histories, all that data is out there, you don't have to hunt for the numbers, there are multiple sources to go to."

You are looking at stats that are given to the public and figured into the line...hogwash bs. Like any sport, Baseball is situational and if you don't know that you are a fool. I have ten years of historical data to prove it and can bring it up at any moment. The current line and past 1-3 game performance it all you need to decide if it is a play or not. Current line vs past line is a remarkable indicater! In the last 3 years, I have never viewed a "depleted bullpens, look at batter vs, pitcher histories"

[stevenash]

Nash ^

In the last 3 years, I have never viewed a "depleted bullpens, look at batter vs, pitcher histories"

You should look at depleted bullpens.

Let's say Baltimore played Toronto last night.
Let's say Baltimore's #3 starter left the game in the middle of the second inning last night because of a blister.
Baltimore must got to the 'pen in the second, probably bring in a middle reliever. He gets you to the fifth inning.
Then Buck goes to his second reliever in the 5th or the 6th. Then he goes to his third reliever in the seventh.
By the end of the game, Buck has used four relievers, three of them are not available tonight.
Now, let's say the #4 starter that goes tonight is only a six inning at best starter, Buck's bull pen is not rested. So Baltimore may have to use their starter an inning or two longer than he is accustomed to. See what I am getting at?

Regarding batter versus pitcher history.
There are certain hitters that are mediocre at best, but 'own' certain pitchers, no matter how good that pitcher is.
There are certain teams that hit certain pitchers hard.
Seek them out, sometimes crappy hitting teams on the whole eat up certain pitchers, seek that out.

[stevenash]

and past 1-3 game performance it all you need to decide if it is a play or not.

I don't buy that.
How a team played last night has no bearing on how a team plays the next night.

[JMon]

I don't buy that.
How a team played last night has no bearing on how a team plays the next night.

Travel, injury, revenge, H/A....etc...very situational. And you left out the important stuff..

The current line and past 1-3 game performance it all you need to decide if it is a play or not. Current line vs past line is a remarkable indicator!

[EXhoosier10]

Nash ^

I noticed you said "all season" and I agree. But for one NOT to bet on a fav when the time is right is down right fukking losing money.

"Look at depleted bullpens, look at batter vs, pitcher histories, all that data is out there, you don't have to hunt for the numbers, there are multiple sources to go to."

You are looking at stats that are given to the public and figured into the line...hogwash bs. Like any sport, Baseball is situational and if you don't know that you are a fool. I have ten years of historical data to prove it and can bring it up at any moment. The current line and past 1-3 game performance it all you need to decide if it is a play or not. Current line vs past line is a remarkable indicater! In the last 3 years, I have never viewed a "depleted bullpens, look at batter vs, pitcher histories"

Travel, injury, revenge, H/A....etc...very situational. And you left out the important stuff..

The current line and past 1-3 game performance it all you need to decide if it is a play or not. Current line vs past line is a remarkable indicator!

JMON, please show me stats that show that stats from the previous 1-3 games are more indicative of future performance than any other data available.

And what do you mean 'current line vs past line'? If the Cubs play the dodgers 1 series a season at Chavez Ravine, are you going back to 2012 to look at a 'past line'?

[Bettalent]

Pinny

[RubberKettle]

I play only totals, dogs or favs on the run line in baseball
Seriously if you start laying heavy chalk in bases your one step away from 'brock landers'ing yourself.

Look at pitcher splits home/away day/night
Last start, walks, history with batters etc etc
Don't tail other posters

[rfr3sh]

dont look at stats you dont find an edge that way, waste of time i hit just above 53% last year with an average line of +116 so baseball is definately profitable for me, i think i am going to put money at betfair and matchbook so i can trade inplay

[JMon]

JMON, please show me stats that show that stats from the previous 1-3 games are more indicative of future performance than any other data available.

And what do you mean 'current line vs past line'? If the Cubs play the dodgers 1 series a season at Chavez Ravine, are you going back to 2012 to look at a 'past line'?

I have a database of box scores, past lines and situational stats from the past ten years. I looks for similar situations that present themselves, look at the past line with the current line to see if it over/undervalued.

[stevenash]

dont look at stats you dont find an edge that way

I bet to differ.

Let's use this hypothetical

Let's say Baltimore is at Detroit.
Let's say the Oriole line up is 33 for 89 lifetime versus the Tiger starter Doug Fister.

Let's say JJ Hardy is 5 for 14 with 2 homers vs. Fister lifetime.
Markakis is 4 for 11 and 3 walks against Fister
Adam Jones 6 for 15
Weiters has 2 bombs versus Fister lifetime.

Let's say Baltimore is using an ordinary pitcher that has held Miggy in check in the past.

The line is Tigers -160/Baltimore +150

You wouldn't take the + money on a team that hits the other pitcher hard?

[stevenash]

situational stats

I live for 'spot plays'
Is that the same as what you call a situational play?

[JMon]

^ indeed

[stevenash]

^ indeed

Then you know how I did last season with my 'spot' plays

[rfr3sh]

I bet to differ.

Let's use this hypothetical

Let's say Baltimore is at Detroit.
Let's say the Oriole line up is 33 for 89 lifetime versus the Tiger starter Doug Fister.

Let's say JJ Hardy is 5 for 14 with 2 homers vs. Fister lifetime.
Markakis is 4 for 11 and 3 walks against Fister
Adam Jones 6 for 15
Weiters has 2 bombs versus Fister lifetime.

Let's say Baltimore is using an ordinary pitcher that has held Miggy in check in the past.

The line is Tigers -160/Baltimore +150

You wouldn't take the + money on a team that hits the other pitcher hard?

you dont think that is factored into the line
you think vegas doesn't have this in their model?
also I have noticed your spot plays and you do well in them, that is just how I feel about looking at publicly available stats


what if the sample of a team lighting a pitcher up is 3-4 ABs each and the pitcher had an off day for whatever reason it is hard to say with such small sample sizes

[stevenash]

I noticed you said "all season" and I agree. But for one NOT to bet on a fav when the time is right is down right fukking losing money.

Oh, I play faves, won't lay more than -150. If you lose a -150 play, you have to win 3 out of the next 5 (at +100 odds) to break even.
If I got a Maddux versus Joe Gas Can type of match up I love, instead of laying -210, I'll wager -1.5 runs at even money instead at times.

I look for live bow-wows, they are out there, I just love to hunt them down is all, and I will share my information with you all.
Last year, everybody was kind to me, even if they were on the other side.

If the posters are respectful, and 90 percent are, I share. I put it out there, and if somebody has another point of view, let me hear it.

[EXhoosier10]

you dont think that is factored into the line
you think vegas doesn't have this in their model?
also I have noticed your spot plays and you do well in them, that is just how I feel about looking at publicly available stats

Considering most games start at 6pm and lines for tomorrow's games come out at 7pm, opening lines can't have this factored in unless it is known before a game that a bullpen will be heavily used

[stevenash]

Considering most games start at 6pm and lines for tomorrow's games come out at 7pm, opening lines can't have this factored in unless it is known before a game that a bullpen will be heavily used

The Twins of the mid 2000's are a perfect example.
If Joe Nathan wasn't available, the first closing option they had was Jesse Crain. Crain was decent enough, but not a closer.
And the only late inning eater starter the Twins had then was Johan Santana.

So, you would have to factor in when handicapping a Twin game, if Santana wasn't starting and Nathan wasn't available, Twins are in trouble from the 6th inning on if the game was close.

Because you can't depend on Jesse Crain or Juan Rincon in a late inning pressure cooker, and you sure as hell can't rely on a Brad Radke or Scott Baker pitching deep into the 7th in a 2-1 or 3-2 type of affair.

[rfr3sh]

Considering most games start at 6pm and lines for tomorrow's games come out at 7pm, opening lines can't have this factored in unless it is known before a game that a bullpen will be heavily used

so then maybe it is irrelevant...

[EXhoosier10]

so then maybe it is irrelevant...

Hardly irrelevant.

[stevenash]

so then maybe it is irrelevant...

Bullpen handicapping is every bit important as handicapping the starting pitcher.

[rfr3sh]

Hardly irrelevant.

do you have stats to back it up or are you just assuming it is relevant?
do you think if it was that big of an edge vegas would open lines that early?

[ebbearsfb1]

Agree, idk why I'm so excited I get crushed every year.

the biggest thing with mlb is its a grind... cant have these 20 or 30 unit plays that you can get away with in college hoops...


which cause of the grind makes it very difficult to want to put in the leg work, or no where to even look...


what stats to use etc...
i think doing fantasy baseball could be an extremely useful tool, when it comes to betting as well

my biggest problem is i dont have the time to take 2 or 3 hours to go game by game and make plays..


home dogs, checking betting % i think could be useful quick tools any body opinion on that?

[davidmiru]

Sportsbook.sbrforum.com

Must have out

what did richi said to you

[rcene]

5dimes

[shipppbeermoney]

do you have stats to back it up or are you just assuming it is relevant?
do you think if it was that big of an edge vegas would open lines that early?

I know this question was not for me but I find it somewhat funny that someone is asking for stats to prove the notion that bullpen health is a relevant consideration in handicapping baseball. Admittedly, I don't have such stats but I also don't have stats about the sky being blue.

The early/overnight lines have much lower limits for a reason. They have not been sharpened yet. Part of the sharpening might be done by how much the bullpen had to pitch last night.

[EXhoosier10]

do you have stats to back it up or are you just assuming it is relevant?
do you think if it was that big of an edge vegas would open lines that early?

Do starting pitchers have any affect on the game? Do hitters? Bullpen pitchers pitch in games. If a closer throws 40 pitches one night, he's not coming out if there's a game the following day. Therefore he won't play. If Albert Pujols gets hit by a pitch in the hand the night before, he probably won't play the next day. Both will have an effect on the outcome of the next day's game; some bullpen pitchers bigger than others, but yes, there is an effect.

I know this question was not for me but I find it somewhat funny that someone is asking for stats to prove the notion that bullpen health is a relevant consideration in handicapping baseball. Admittedly, I don't have such stats but I also don't have stats about the sky being blue.

The early/overnight lines have much lower limits for a reason. They have not been sharpened yet. Part of the sharpening might be done by how much the bullpen had to pitch last night.

seconded.

[rfr3sh]

Go and check 5 dimes opener vs pinnacles closers last year they generally don't differ much

[EXhoosier10]

Go and check 5 dimes opener vs pinnacles closers last year they generally don't differ much

It's probably one game a day where an above average bullpen arm is unavailable therefore making your point moot.

[rfr3sh]

It's probably one game a day where an above average bullpen arm is unavailable therefore making your point moot.

would you care to start a thread and track it all season?
the only problem I have with this is you are guessing how many innings the SP will pitch
you will look at his past games vs this team and say ok well he lasted 3, 4 , 5 innings in his last 3 games vs them so I think he will last around 4 today..X is not available in the bullpen because of whatever reason, therefore the vegas line is wrong and I have an edge

[EXhoosier10]

would you care to start a thread and track it all season?
the only problem I have with this is you are guessing how many innings the SP will pitch
you will look at his past games vs this team and say ok well he lasted 3, 4 , 5 innings in his last 3 games vs them so I think he will last around 4 today..X is not available in the bullpen because of whatever reason, therefore the vegas line is wrong and I have an edge

no, i don't really care to track it. you're missing the point here. Nobody makes bets based solely on 1 RP being unavailable. What Nash and I were saying is that if I think there is value in the yankees and I see that Mariano has pitched the past 3 games, and therefore will most likely not be avaialable for the game i'm interested in, the edge I see is less (assuming the pitcher who will see action as a setup guy is worse than mariano).

I'm not sure why you're arguing that having a lesser pitcher more likely to pitch has no effect on the probability of a team winning.

[rfr3sh]

My point is that you don't need to look at any stats to win at gambling
you are not looking at anything vegas does not know

[apalm8]

5Dimes 100%

[EXhoosier10]

My point is that you don't need to look at any stats to win at gambling
you are not looking at anything vegas does not know

You should have made your point 5 posts ago. There is more than one way to win when betting baseball.

[JMon]

You should have made your point 5 posts ago. There is more than one way to win when betting baseball.

you got it! it appears rfr3sh and I agree and you and Nash agree... as per rfr3sh..I wouldn't mind a season long cap off between the four of us.