[bigjonson]

I don't want to give out any names but I know a group of players who have been ivolved with a service who pumps out nearly 9 plays a day.

So far meh... Pro cappers hitting 50% is not a pro to me but this is just my opinion.

So they were asking if they can produce a ranked play system by showing the strongest plays of a day.

The reply was that all plays are ranked equal.

Now I ask you guys, how is this possible?!?

How can 7-9 plays on average all be ranked the same?

Does this service sound shady? Judging off the results they are average at best but I am now very fearful of the pick process.

I really don't want to give out the name but I guess I could PM if anyone was that interested in knowing.

Anyhow - thoughts and comments are appreciated.

[head_strong]

Anyone playing 7-9 plays per day would seem strange to me, more or less a crap shoot hoping you hit over 50%. I have trouble producing more then 5 leans per day and end up only playing usually 2 plays per day. Not to mention the money you have to invest to cover these 7-9 plays. One bad day going 2-7 can really hurt your bankroll, a lot more then going 0-2. At the same time it gives them some outs, if they were providing 1-2 plays per day and missing there wouldn't be much of an argument from their standpoint, having so many plays some have to hit so they can at least say some plays came through. If I was paying for a service I would much rather see fewer plays because this would tell me they have found some value and focused in on what they think is the strongest play/plays on the board. There would not be any reason for them to rank the plays or provide a star ranking because it would be clear where they think the value is. But again just my opinion, some people do well betting the board but I personally have never found any success doing it that way.

[themajormt]

I have subscribed to ONE service and that service only would have between 3-6 plays a WEEK. 7-9 a day is insane and impossible to win in the long term. If they go 6-3 on -110 games (unlikely all -110's for MLB) youre actually only picking up roughly 2 units. One decent sized favorite losing destroys profits... I am definitely a degen but 7-9 plays a day is crazy...

[u21c3f6]

I can't speak about selection services as I don't use them but here is my take on the lack of ranking.

If I were to give out my "picks", they would not be ranked either. I have a selection method that produces +EV based on a group of wagers. One wager is not more important than another and I have no way (or maybe I just haven't discovered a way) to determine which individual selection has a higher probability of winning than another selection. I must play all selections to end up +EV. The number of selections I can have on a given day can be as many as the number of games that have live wagering available.

Joe.

[bigjonson]

Well I feel a whole lot better in the advice that I gave to this group.

YOU GUYS ARE crazy.

Personally todrop a few plays a night in Soccer is one thign but in MLB that is simply a losing recipe.

Confirmed by other players and maybe I can smack some sense into these clowns.

Funny thing is they offer "12 months" if a play fails.....

Is that your pitch????? 12 months of "hopefully" 50%?!?!?@

I will pass thank you.

[Coach_K]

Hey fellas...I thought I'd throw out my 2 cents on this topic since I am a high volume capper. Personally, I find the high volume approach much more profitable in the long run based on simple math, assuming I can hit 53% and above. The more plays you play, the faster you can accumulate units, again assuming you are hitting above the 52.4% threshold on your typical 11/10. If I can hit 55% over the course of 100 plays and play an average of 5 plays per day...I'll win approx 5.5 units every 20 days wagering 1 unit per play. For someone who plays 2 plays per day, they will need to hit roughly 59% to accumulate the same amount of units over the same period of time. Since I know from my past I am able to hit 54-57% over the course of 1 year, it makes more sense to me to lay the $ on as many games I feel that will cash more than 53% of the time if the line is -110. Obviously, if the line is higher, my projection models better have the game with a higher % of winning or we don't play it.

If you have been around this racket for some time, you know that very few people actually profit in the long run and the most successful handicappers, the best of the best, hit about 58% over the course of a year. Yes, some will go on great runs where they are able to hit 70% over a 15-20 play span, but when it's all said and done, 53% (11/10) wins you money and if you take into consideration that only about 4% of regular bettors profit in the long run, even 55% is spectacular. If you buy into the hype that these clowns hit 70%-80% like they claim...I cannot help you. You'll just have to take my word, that as a person with some real connections, not even the sharpest of the sharps can hit over 60% on a regular basis!

I'll give you some real # examples of how hitting even 65% over the course of 5 years can make you a multi-Billionaire. Yes, I said BILLION. Let's say we started with a bankroll of 10k and adhere to the rules that we will never bet more than 5% of our bankroll on 1 play and will keep our bets level at an average of 14 bets per week or 2 per day. That gives us 728 total bets for the year. At 65% our record is 473-255. Over 1 year we would have won almost 100K, provided we did not increase our bet amount as our BR built up. For year 2, we now have a bankroll of about 110K, so our wager amount is now $5500. After year 2 our bankroll now sits at over $1 MILLION. In just 2 short years of hitting 65% and wagering on an average of 2 games per day and winning 65% we have increased our bankroll from 10k to 1M. See where I'm going with this?

Now, let's assume we kept our bets the same and always maintain the 5% (increasing our amount as our BR increases). Our overall profit would end up being $1750 for week 1. Now, 5% of our new bankroll total is $587.50. So our week 2 profit is 2056.25 and now our bankroll sits at 13,806.25 making our week 3 wager amount $690. After week 3 our bankroll sits at $16,221. FFWD...after 4 months we would have increased our bankroll to over 130K after starting with just 10K!!! After just 1 year hitting 65% and keeping a flat bet amount of 5% of our BR we would have won approx 43,849,946. Yes, that is 43 MILLION in 1 year. Now tell me why the hell would anyone in their right mind waste their time and energy marketing and selling their plays if they were able to place an average of 2 wagers per day and hit 65%?!

Even if you started with $500 and wagered only 1% of your BR per play (avg of 2/day) and hit 60%, in 5 years you would have yourself 650K!! After 10 years...861 MILLION! Why would anyone work ever again?! You can invest $500 and never wager more than 1% of your bankroll, play 2 plays per day and be able to buy the Chicago Cubs in 10 years...how's that for an investment.

If anyone still believes the touts who claim to hit such an absurd % and aren't considered among the top 10 wealthiest individuals on Earth....give me a call, I have some land to sell you. On the other hand...being a handicapper who sells my information, I understand the marketing and sales side of things. If I am hitting 70% over my last 20 bets, you can be sure I'm going to sell it as such! Fellas, this is a business for these guys (myself included) and the sooner you realize that the better you will be able to choose who is right for your personal style. If someone claims to hit absurd #'s for their lifetime or the past year or so....be very cautious of who you are dealing with. Good Luck!!

-Coach K

[bigjonson]

Nicely put Coach.

Well I am watching the plays from this service. I will play them on paper and see how it fairs.

I will be sure to post results. If it is something worth sharing I will post some of the plays.

I don't want to steer anyone in any wrong directions here so I figured to just talk it out first.

Thanks again for the insight fellas.

[mikey360]

Nicely put Coach.

Well I am watching the plays from this service. I will play them on paper and see how it fairs.

I will be sure to post results. If it is something worth sharing I will post some of the plays.

I don't want to steer anyone in any wrong directions here so I figured to just talk it out first.

Thanks again for the insight fellas.

One thing I would look for is some sort of legitimate record keeping of all the plays they make, you won't believe the lengths some touts will go to to sell their service.

Worst case i've seen this MLB season was a service (pm me if you want to know who), about 2 weeks into the season after a less than steller start they edit the way they make plays, basically removing runline losses from there results spreadsheet, then telling members that the results sheet is a results simulator, its bollocks, oh and the service is now in the red for MLB, shady service.

There are some honest guys out there but 10 times as many shady scammers, just be carefull if you do decide to follow any touts.

Its good that you have the intention of just tracking them but at the same time if your going to do that you need to track them over a fairly long time, small sample sizes can be very misleading, I track alot of cappers free picks and some hit a decent clip over a long period but i've seen some decent guys lose 7-9 games strait with 1 pick a day but still be up overall, every capper will have his bad days/weeks and you need to see both sides of this before you can make any kind of judement on them.

[Chuck Luck]

i have friends in the biz that put out 6-12 baseball plays per day and will fire 15ish college football plays in a day.

if they would just release the top 3-4 games they would really be good at what they do instead of just an average capper.

if a service realeases over 5 plays in one night in baseball action i would say thanks but NO THANKS.

only one way to go 0-6...........

[bigjonson]

Well I have been monitring the service very closely.

The claims of hitting 70%+ on their parlays is beyond a joke.

They have gone 0-8 on their last 8 parlays and are hitting just about 51% on the rest of their plays.

Simpl toss a dart at a board.

If the board moderators don't mind I would like to post the name of the group so others can make their own decisions and voice their opinion.

Maybe they are winners but are on a terrible cold streak and someone can validate??????

The funny thing is I took a chance and faded the entire parlay and hit.

They went 0-3 on the play.

So does the Brandon Lang Fade come into play or is it worth the conversation?

IE: Your paying to fade the picks.

So while they are giving you losers it is your choice to do what you want with them.

Thoughts?

[xyz]

Fading picks in general will not give you an edige. Because if the tout is a coin flipper, your fades are just taking the other side of the coin flip. In the long run, the vig will get you just like it does to your tout. Unless the tout consistently loses at worst than coin flip, and you need to figure out what sample size is significant, I would not recommend fading any one. Are those 2 team or 3 team parlays?

[roasthawg]

I play between 15-20 plays a day on average during the mlb season... all ranked the same. I have no idea how this service is picking/ranking plays but the fact that they don't rank their plays differently and play a lot of games doesn't seem strange at all to me since I do the same.

[Dollars2Donuts]

I have subscribed to ONE service and that service only would have between 3-6 plays a WEEK. 7-9 a day is insane and impossible to win in the long term. If they go 6-3 on -110 games (unlikely all -110's for MLB) youre actually only picking up roughly 2 units. One decent sized favorite losing destroys profits... I am definitely a degen but 7-9 plays a day is crazy...

This drives me crazy.....

If somebody can create an edge in their plays, then they should bet as many games as they can find an edge in. If you understand variance, this is the best and quickest way to defend against it.

7-9 plays would be a VERY Light day for me. In 40 days posting all picks before the go off, I have placed almost 600 wagers, or almost 15 per day. Please see my thread for verification.

This way I avoid extended losing streaks, etc. As I have preached all along, betting, and winning is compound interest on your money. Why would anyone not want to speed that process up if they have an edge? You must realize that at the start of the 'compound interest' model the profits are modest, but as time passes the returns can become huge. Why would we not want this process to happen as quickly as possible?

D2D