1. 01-31-13 11:13 AM #1
    sweep
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    does anyone feel soory for Seaweed? Where is his future?

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  2. 01-31-13 11:16 AM #2
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    Seaweed is most likely a very kind person in the real world
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  3. 01-31-13 11:23 AM #3
    onacloud
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    Hopefully he goes back to where ever he came from and takes PhillyFlyers with him

    I remember his first thread was touting how he has had like 10 winning years in a row but then couldn't even make it thru the first month of the NBA without abandoning his thread http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...over-66-a.html



    Now dropping a 10 unit bomb on a kick-off prop you have to be shitting me
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  4. 01-31-13 11:32 AM #4
    tto827
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    Seaweed is spot on with that play onacloud. In domes this year the two kickers are well above 60% that it is a touchback, that covers the juice here.
    Something tells me the books know SF is going to defer if they win the toss, because Baltimore ALWAYS defers, yet is only -140 to kick off first. Looking at this season SF is 50/50 on defer/receive when they win the toss. So by my thinking Baltimore should be -300, since theoretically they would kick off 75% of the time.
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  5. 01-31-13 11:35 AM #5
    BIGDAY
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    Seaweed is spot on with that play onacloud. In domes this year the two kickers are well above 60% that it is a touchback, that covers the juice here.
    Something tells me the books know SF is going to defer if they win the toss, because Baltimore ALWAYS defers, yet is only -140 to kick off first. Looking at this season SF is 50/50 on defer/receive when they win the toss. So by my thinking Baltimore should be -300, since theoretically they would kick off 75% of the time.
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  6. 01-31-13 11:36 AM #6
    Louisvillekid1
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    sharp post TTO
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  7. 01-31-13 11:37 AM #7
    VegasInsider
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    Seaweed is spot on with that play onacloud. In domes this year the two kickers are well above 60% that it is a touchback, that covers the juice here.
    Something tells me the books know SF is going to defer if they win the toss, because Baltimore ALWAYS defers, yet is only -140 to kick off first. Looking at this season SF is 50/50 on defer/receive when they win the toss. So by my thinking Baltimore should be -300, since theoretically they would kick off 75% of the time.
    Actually, the break even point for plays of -180 is about 65%

    You'll need to be more accurate with your percentages to figure out if it has break even potential or not.

    Big difference between 65% and "well above 60%"
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  8. 01-31-13 11:39 AM #8
    VegasInsider
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    C'mon guys....DO THE MATH

    65 x $100 = $6,500

    35 x $180 = $6,300

    The break even point is just a oyster hair under 65%
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  9. 01-31-13 11:41 AM #9
    BIGDAY
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    It's +EV VI
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  10. 01-31-13 11:42 AM #10
    onacloud
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    That -180 line is down to -155 right now... so I should go all-in right? +EV

    How many times has a returner took the ball out of the end zone 5 yards deep only to get tackled inside the 15? I know you guys see this every Sunday now in the Super Bowl every one wants to make the big play especially to start the game off

    I just think its a dumb bet but if its free money go grab that -155
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  11. 01-31-13 11:44 AM #11
    VegasInsider
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    It's +EV VI
    What evidence shows it's +EV??

    I'm a math guy and if the numbers don't add up, then they don't add up.

    I agree it SHOULD hit, but I'm not playing anything that I have to hit 65% to break even.
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  12. 01-31-13 11:44 AM #12
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasInsider View Post
    C'mon guys....DO THE MATH

    65 x $100 = $6,500

    35 x $180 = $6,300

    The break even point is just a oyster hair under 65%
    I didn't look it up, I'll admit that, but I've got a very trusted prop source who hammered the -180 on less than 4.5 returns and moved it to the -215 it now stands at. His research backed that up, and I'll trust it. Now if you want to go find out the exact percentages, I'll be willing to bet you it's above 70% of kickoffs by those two in domes that are not returned.
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  13. 01-31-13 11:44 AM #13
    TheCentaur
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    Seaweed seems all nice and innocent in his threads.

    Then he gets you alone in a poker room and becomes a raging bull queer. Stay away, unless you like that
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  14. 01-31-13 11:45 AM #14
    VegasInsider
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    Quote Originally Posted by onacloud View Post
    That -180 line is down to -155 right now... so I should go all-in right? +EV

    How many times has a returner took the ball out of the end zone 5 yards deep only to get tackled inside the 15? I know you guys see this every Sunday now in the Super Bowl every one wants to make the big play especially to start the game off

    I just think its a dumb bet but if its free money go grab that -155
    I think it's +EV at -155, because the season statistics for touchbacks in a dome show that percentage of touchbacks is higher than the break even point.

    It's simple math.
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  15. 01-31-13 11:47 AM #15
    VegasInsider
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    I didn't look it up, I'll admit that, but I've got a very trusted prop source who hammered the -180 on less than 4.5 returns and moved it to the -215 it now stands at. His research backed that up, and I'll trust it. Now if you want to go find out the exact percentages, I'll be willing to bet you it's above 70% of kickoffs by those two in domes that are not returned.
    I'd be curious to see it myself. I would make the play at -155 solely because the break even point is significantly lower.
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  16. 01-31-13 12:03 PM #16
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasInsider View Post
    I'd be curious to see it myself. I would make the play at -155 solely because the break even point is significantly lower.
    Good thing we didn't bet it lol, as you'll see in the other thread these two only had touchbacks 55% of the time in domes this year.
    Tucker 4/5, Akers 2/10 in the reg season, and 5/5 last week.
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  17. 01-31-13 12:13 PM #17
    VegasInsider
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    Oh wow, odds now need to be -120ish

    No value at all in terms of math

    Thanks for the info. I hope it wins anyways for these guys
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  18. 01-31-13 12:15 PM #18
    Colts03
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    seaweed is good people
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  19. 01-31-13 12:26 PM #19
    sweep
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    Quote Originally Posted by Colts03 View Post
    seaweed is good people
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  20. 01-31-13 02:36 PM #20
    Kermit
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    Seaweed is a solid guy.
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  21. 01-31-13 02:48 PM #21
    Seaweed
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    sweeper just jealous cause i outlasted him in poker today

    sweeperwhere is my future?

    sweeper we're living in the future

    think about it
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  22. 01-31-13 02:51 PM #22
    Seaweed
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCentaur View Post
    Seaweed seems all nice and innocent in his threads.

    Then he gets you alone in a poker room and becomes a raging bull queer. Stay away, unless you like that
    You're too easy to throw off your game, it's all mind games, think about it
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  23. 01-31-13 02:58 PM #23
    sweep
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    Pissed away a 3-1 chip lead to bring it up the rear in 12th HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHa
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  24. 01-31-13 03:03 PM #24
    Seaweed
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    Quote Originally Posted by sweep View Post
    Pissed away a 3-1 chip lead to bring it up the rear in 12th HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHa

    Sweeper, i thought i would fold to top 5 but the blinds and Antes got me. What place did you finish again? Oh right, you got a participant ribbon
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  25. 01-31-13 03:06 PM #25
    Russian Rocket
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    I was under impression that Seaweed was a good peoples
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  26. 01-31-13 03:07 PM #26
    sweep
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seaweed View Post
    Sweeper, i thought i would fold to top 5 but the blinds and Antes got me. What place did you finish again? Oh right, you got a participant ribbon
    Weeder- Do me a solid and shine my badges while you're here, while you're at it dust off the old leg lamp for me...Its been 2 months since I was crowned top poster in all of forumville. Thanks guy
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  27. 01-31-13 03:11 PM #27
    ttwarrior1
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    he could shack up with moyal
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  28. 01-31-13 03:12 PM #28
    Seaweed
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    Quote Originally Posted by sweep View Post
    Weeder- Do me a solid and shine my badges while you're here, while you're at it dust off the old leg lamp for me...Its been 2 months since I was crowned top poster in all of forumville. Thanks guy
    Sweeper, i got nothing to say you just buried me.
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  29. 01-31-13 03:13 PM #29
    Seaweed
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    Quote Originally Posted by ttwarrior1 View Post
    he could shack up with moyal
    Don't talk with your mouth full
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  30. 01-31-13 03:20 PM #30
    sweep
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seaweed View Post
    Don't talk with your mouth full
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  31. 01-31-13 03:58 PM #31
    innovation
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    I feel sorry for the kids that get on Seaweeds computer when it's unattended.




    Some of those porn images will haunt them for ever.
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  32. 01-31-13 03:58 PM #32
    GUMMO77
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    Seaweed's future, I hope, lands in my beautifully sculpted arms.

    Dreamers can dream .. eh?
    Last edited by GUMMO77; 01-31-13 at 05:24 PM.
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  33. 01-31-13 04:22 PM #33
    ttwarrior1
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    handicapping contest , moyal vs seaweed, id be all in on moyal

    this is your chance moyal and ill back you
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  34. 01-31-13 04:27 PM #34
    Russian Rocket
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    Quote Originally Posted by ttwarrior1 View Post
    handicapping contest , moyal vs seaweed, id be all in on moyal

    this is your chance moyal and ill back you
    thanks for stopping by
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  35. 01-31-13 04:27 PM #35
    sweep
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