If I'm understanding you correctly and your argument is that Kelly is ineffective in sportsbetting because handicappers are unable to adequately judge their true winning percentages for any given bet, then insofar as your premise might be true for any given individual, I certainly have no argument with your conclusion. (You'll notice that I listed this as Kelly problem #1 above).Originally Posted by Dark Horse
I hope you realize, however, that this is not an issue with Kelly qua Kelly, but rather one that stems directly from from imperfect forecasting methodology.
"Garbage in, garbage out," as they say. (In other words, if your forecasts are faulty you shouldn't be using Kelly.)