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NFL Playoffs... (Divisional Round)
The Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs pretty much went as expected... All four betting favorites not only won, they also covered the spread. Injuries to quarterbacks Christian Ponder and RG3 all but sealed the deal for the Vikings and Redskins... This is what makes predicting (betting) NFL football so difficult, you just never know who will get hurt, fumble the ball, or be called for a ridiculous game changing penalty...
So now we head into the Divisional Round... Of the 8 teams that remain, 6 of them made it this far last year, including the exact same 4 AFC teams! So much for the NFL and their parity...
This weeks games:
Saturday 4:30PM ET
Ravens @ Broncos
The Line: The Broncos are currently (9) point favorites. The Total is currently (46) points.
Why the Broncos should win: They're at home with an all time great at QB. Defense is highly effective when given a lead, something Peyton should be able to give them. They were beating this same team 31-3 in the third quarter less than a month ago in Baltimore.
Why the Ravens should win: They shouldn't, but there are some things worth mentioning. The Broncos had the easiest path of all the teams in this years playoffs. I have said all year this team is overvalued, maybe this week they stumble? It will be pretty cold (20's) in Denver, this can equalize things a bit.
Betting Angle: These are two teams I have been hard on all year. Of their combined 23 regular season wins, only 5 were against teams with winning records... So I will be glad to see one of them go...
Conventional thinking is the Ravens will try to keep the clock moving with runs and safe passing. This would not only negate the Broncos great edge pass rushers, but also shorten the game and keep Peyton off the field... Whether they will be able to do this or not, is the question...
On defense, the Ravens will most likely hope to keep everything in front of them, and hold the Broncos to long drives that end in field goals. I don't think they will try to blitz Peyton too much, as that isn't usually a good idea.
So, assuming that the Ravens will at least try to shorten this game, I feel pretty good about taking the Under (23) in the first half. Don't like anything for the whole game for the simple fact that if the Ravens get behind a few scores, things could get very ugly if they are forced into obvious throwing situations...
Saturday 8:00PM ET
Packers @ 49ers
The Line: The 49ers are currently (3) points favorites. The Total is currently (45) points.
Why the 49ers should win: Better all-around team with home field and coaching advantage... They should be able to run the ball at will... Physical secondary will also have the Packers receivers on alert...
Why the Packers should win: Any team with Aaron Rodgers and a healthy receiving core should always win, right?
Betting Angle: This may seem crazy, but I think this game comes down to the health of 49ers defensive lineman Justin Smith... Not Aldon Smith, his sidekick, but Justin, who is usually responsible for freeing up Aldon to get all those sacks. Justin Smith was injured in the second half of the 49ers/Patriots game. It's no coincidence that after he got hurt, the Patriots made a lightning quick comeback, and after that the Seahawks put a pounding on them scoring 42 points.
As of now, it looks like he will play but be very limited. If this stays the case, you have to like the Packers plus the (3) points and the Over (45) points on the Total. Yes, he makes that much of a difference!
Sunday 1:00PM ET
Seahawks @ Falcons
The Line: The Falcons are currently (2.5) point favorites. The Total is currently (46) points.
Why the Falcons should win: The only game they lost at home all year was the last game of the year when they had nothing to play for. The Seahawks are clearly not as good on the road and were very fortunate that RG3 was injured...
Why the Seahawks should win: Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan has been very valuable and the key to their defensive success this year. He's made some veteran QB's (P.Manning,Rivers,Romo,Brees,E.Manning) look very bad this year, but there was one guy who he couldn't stop, Cam Newton. The Panthers should have won in Atlanta and handled the Falcons rather easily in Carolina. I think he will have similar problems this week gameplanning for Russell Wilson.
Betting Angle: I think we will see some huge plays in the passing game for the Seahawks this weekend. I can see the Falcons over-committing to stopping the run and read option of Wilson and leaving some guys on an island. I would look into "Overs" on Russell Wilson passing yards and receiving yards for the wide receivers. (I will update this later when props come out)
Sunday 4:30PM ET
Texans @ Patriots
The Line: The Patriots are currently (9.5) point favorites. The Total is currently (47.5) Points.
Why the Patriots should win: The Texans visited the Patriots almost exactly one month ago... They lost 42-14
Why the Texans should win: The main difference in the game played a month ago was quarterback play. Matt Schaub played horrible. All the other positions on the field seemed like a pretty even match up. So if Schaub learned anything from last game, and makes the proper adjustments, maybe he can pull off an upset...
Betting Angle: Last time these teams played, Gronkowski was out, and Hernandez played great. (8 catches) I think we will see another great game from Hernandez, and Gronkowski should also see some targets. Who I see having a below average game though is Wes Welker. The Texans like to get in your face and play tight man, and with JJ Watt forcing Brady into some quick throws, I don't think Welker will have the time to get open. I would look into taking the Under on Wes Welker props this weekend. (I will update this later when props come out)
Good Luck and remember to enjoy the games!
Disclaimer: Betting on sports is generally a bad idea, betting on the NFL is even a worse idea... You should only bet for entertainment reasons and only bet what you can afford.
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iifold gave El Nino 3 SBR Point(s) for this post.
Originally Posted by El Nino
