[Mantle7]

I've been hitting a lot of NBA middles (if you don't know what a middle is go look it up and come back) but I THINK I've figured out a way to play for free. I realized that theres a way to cover the juice if you win one lose one. Here we go... Heres an example.

Lets say its a second half bet and its..
Lakers -2 -125
Boston +3 -125

Risk $1000 both sides.

Let's say Lakers win. Lakers 94 Boston 86. Middle doesn't hit, so you win one lose one.

You win the Lakers bet for $1000 but you lose the Boston bet for $1250. So you're down $250. My objective is to cover that $250 so I'm playing for free with an insurance bet. All I need to do is "flip" my bet. B

Lakers -4 +125 risk $1000 to win $1250.
Boston +5 +125 risk $1000 to win $1250.

Feel free to shoot holes in this. Throw out a score that doesn't protect the bet. I don't have it completely figured out yet but I'm close. The trick is keeping your lines exactly the same and playing the line movement to your advantage so you get the best possible line.

[housecloud]

nope

[playersonly69]

What in the penetrate????



Where would you possibly find lines like this? First Boston is +3 and -125, then all of a sudden they are +5 and +125????

[Seaweed]

nope

[You mad bro]

[PerfectGrape]

That's a way to guarantee profit if there's line movement. If there's not though it won't work. Books wouldn't ever have those 2 bets available at the same time. Its more profitable usually to not go for a middle. When you make the second bet, your first one would already be +EV because you beat the line movement. If the second line doesn't move back though, you are paying juice and making a -EV bet on the second bet. In that case it would've been more +EV just to keep the first bet.

[Mantle7]

What in the penetrate????



Where would you possibly find lines like this? First Boston is +3 and -125, then all of a sudden they are +5 and +125????

You're right. I had that backwards. It would be Boston -1.

[ZetaPsi808]

guys lets all tail this guy and then we will become thousandaires

[Mantle7]

That's a way to guarantee profit if there's line movement. If there's not though it won't work. Books wouldn't ever have those 2 bets available at the same time. Its more profitable usually to not go for a middle. When you make the second bet, your first one would already be +EV because you beat the line movement. If the second line doesn't move back though, you are paying juice and making a -EV bet on the second bet. In that case it would've been more +EV just to keep the first bet.

5 dimes does. You can but plenty of points at halftime.

[Mantle7]

Throw out a score that doesn't cover the insurance.

[Mantle7]

Anybody?

[PerfectGrape]

You mean sell points? Say the line is -2.5 -110 and you sell to -4 +125. The the line moves to -5 -110 and you sell the +5 to +4 +125, you can guarantee profit. There still needs to be at least a lot of line movement. And you can't sell points on 5d. The point is you would have to beat the closing line to get 2 + bets.

Edit: maybe you can sell points. But still beating the closing line is how you profit whether you middle or not. But everyone already knows that.

[Mantle7]

You mean sell points? Say the line is -2.5 -110 and you sell to -4 +125. The the line moves to -5 -110 and you sell the +5 to +4 +125, you can guarantee profit. There still needs to be at least a lot of line movement. And you can't sell points on 5D. The point is you would have to beat the closing line to get 2 + bets.

Buddy, you can definitely sell points on 5dimes and I agree with you on your point about beating the closing line. I'm talking about insuring a middle by selling points basically.

[Mantle7]

Zeta and YouMadBro I don't expect you guys to have any idea what Im talking about.

[beermankirk]

nope, L

[PerfectGrape]

Usually you won't get to sell a lot of points, maybe a half point to a point. If the line moves a point or two, probably the best you would get is -4 +110/ +4 +110 for a profit of 10%. But if you just let the original bet ride, your expected value would be greater than 10% because you beat the closing lineby so much. So in the long run, it would be more profitable not to middle.

[ZetaPsi808]

Zeta and YouMadBro I don't expect you guys to have any idea what Im talking about.

dang it

[Mantle7]

More profitable not to middle? I don't have anything to prove but ill post some screenshots that prove my point..and middling is very lucrative if you do it right

[Mantle7]

[Mantle7]

[Mantle7]

[Mantle7]

[tb1984]

... let me check your screenshots.

[PerfectGrape]

If the line opens at -3, you bet -4 at + odds, then the line moves to -6 and you take +5 at plus odds. If the line holds at -6, your second bet is -EV. You are guaranteeing profit but if you repeat the bet 1000s of time you would make more if you let the first bet stand. If you beat the closing line by 3 points, you would win say 70% of the time 1 unit instead of 100% of the time .25 units. But if the line moves back down from -6 to -5, then betting the +5 at + odds before the move would be the right play. By going for a middle, all those times you would win the full unit would be wasted because of the second bet you made you'd only win .25 units or .1 units. Would you rather have a 70% chance of winning 1 unit or 100% chance of .1 units, or a 5% chance of winning both bets.

[Mantle7]

I could keep going but you get the point. When you play middles you're basically betting with Vegas's line which we all know our the sharpest lines.

Zeta, don't Fukkn condescend me man. You don't know me, man

[You mad bro]

buried

[PerfectGrape]

I see you are buying points, not selling. If one of the bets loses, you lose money. You are basically betting the game hits the middle at a 3 to 1

[Mantle7]

Idk

[MadTiger]

nope

+1

This is what happens when someone has over 3,000 posts in four months.

[PerfectGrape]

On the spurs jazz it was a 5-1 it hits 5 or 6. If you think there's a 16% chance or more it falls on those 2 numbers then its a good bet. Seeing how sharp the lines are maybe it could be profitable. Idk though maybe you just had a run of good variance.

[PerfectGrape]

It is not a free shot though, you lose if its outside the middle.

[tb1984]

If the Thunder had won by +10, you would have lost $114.

I do a lot of half time betting on 5dimes, and there is no way 5dimes lets you somehow combine numbers(I'm talking about second half numbers only) so that you can play for free and win money when you hit middle.

[Mantle7]

On the spurs jazz it was a 5-1 it hits 5 or 6. If you think there's a 16% chance or more it falls on those 2 numbers then its a good bet. Seeing how sharp the lines are maybe it could be profitable. Idk though maybe you just had a run of good variance.

Possibly, ill keep working on it. I just realized it was a possibility yesterday. It's a work in progress. Thanks for your input.

[Mantle7]

If the Thunder had won by +10, you would have lost $114.

I do a lot of half time betting on 5dimes, and there is no way 5dimes lets you somehow combine numbers(I'm talking about second half numbers only) so that you can play for free and win money when you hit middle.

Ill post an example tomorrow night. It will clear a lot of things up.

[Mantle7]

YouMadBro, I haven't checked into SBR for over a month and you trolled my shot within the first 2 minutes. Life must be going good.