[tedastonishing]

dont forget about NRL... 530AM EST

Gold COast Titans

[tedastonishing]

7/31/2009
Rugby NRL
A = Gold Coast Titans -213 (2.13 x 50 = 106.5) L

+5050
-106.5
+4943.5

B will be posted tonight

[masticore]

Hi

God luck with your chasing sytem

I play also a chase system .

But i play games with little better odds (maybe more gambling but i can instead put in a D bet - the D bet will little less money then )

And I have more series working at the same time

To evryone that dont like chasing system. Dont complain an lissen instead.

In sportsbetting and other gamling types (poker,roulett,blackjack etc etc) will you loose money if you have -EV and win money when you have + EV

So its doesn't matter if you straight bets or chasing the most important is that you must have the right price to right game otherwise you will lose money

Offcourse will he,me - and other chaser now or then lose our c/d bets

Therefor have a good BR managment
A good BR managment is with straight bet never bet more than 5%-10%of your BR and chasing system never try to win more than 0.5% of your BR on the A bet

Then will you never get broked

But so long we have bet +EV plays will we win in the long term

So most of the "amateur" gamblers dont understand that gambling is a long term proccess

best regards and BOL
mikke

ps sorry for my bad english - not my mother language DS

[tedastonishing]

7/31/2009
ATP
A = A Seppi -238 (2.38 x 25 = 59.5)

+4943.5

[masticore]

This is another Martingale system destined to eventually crash and burn. At $25 per pop, you'll need 200 straight wins to double your $5000 bankroll. The good news is that you have about a 99% chance of success with each series of bets (given the heavy chalk you're laying). The bad news is that winning 200 straight series will only happen 13% of the time with a 99% win average.

Hmmm.....

99% what school did you went on? The coorect result mathimatical is to get 200 straight winns in a 3 way chase system is to have a strike ratio at 86%

and have 4 way chase system you need a strike ratio at 78%

yes we cant get number like that...no one can

(- maybe if you play super duper favorites all the time)

therefor its important to get the right odds (always bet when u have + EV)

best regards and BOL

Mikke

[LT Profits]

Hmmm.....

99% what school did you went on? The coorect result mathimatical is to get 200 straight winns in a 3 way chase system is to have a strike ratio at 86%

and have 4 way chase system you need a strike ratio at 78%

yes we cant get number like that...no one can

(- maybe if you play super duper favorites all the time)

therefor its important to get the right odds (always bet when u have + EV)

best regards and BOL

Mikke

I believe that the point he was making was that the BEST CASE was a 99% successful chase based on the HUGE odds the OP likes to lay, and even at those generous odds, he would STILL have just a 13% chance of 200 straight successes.

[masticore]

I agree that he always play super fav.And there for must have a v.high hit ratio

What I said earlier was that u need the right price for your bets (+ EV)

As long you have + EV u will win, otherwise will you lose

It doesnt matter if you play chase system or not

I play chase series...and it have worked out so far (hopefully have I + EV in my bets but that will the future tell me)

best regrads and BOL

I

[durito]

If you are betting +EV bets, then just about any other money management system than this one will produce superior results.

[LT Profits]

I agree that he always play super fav.And there for must have a v.high hit ratio

What I said earlier was that u need the right price for your bets (+ EV)

As long you have + EV u will win, otherwise will you lose

It doesnt matter if you play chase system or not

I play chase series...and it have worked out so far (hopefully have I + EV in my bets but that will the future tell me)

best regrads and BOL

I

Correct and this is the sharpest post in the entire thread.

NOW, if he IS playing all +EV Bets, would it not be best to throw out this chasing garbage and optimize profits with Kelly (or even a flat % of BR each game)? He would not be increasing bets after a loss and his initial "A" bets should be bigger than his conservative starting point now.

[lakerboy]

hey durito come on buddy change your signature you know i was kidding with that one- thanks for the exposure

[masticore]

Correct and this is the sharpest post in the entire thread.

NOW, if he IS playing all +EV Bets, would it not be best to throw out this chasing garbage and optimize profits with Kelly (or even a flat % of BR each game)? He would not be increasing bets after a loss and his initial "A" bets should be bigger than his conservative starting point now.

The advantage i see in a chase system is that:

If I bet in A-bet a -EV (you dont know if a bet is - or + untill you have played it unlimited times) then i can chase back the money in the next bet (hopefully that is a + EV bet) and so on

But its a dissadvatage also:
If I lose my first bet but it's still a +EV bet and chase that back with -EV bets..than I will be in big trubble (but then must I count on my lucky star )


best regards and BOL

[durito]

oh my

[LT Profits]

The advantage i see in a chase system is that:

If I bet in A-bet a -EV (you dont know if a bet is - or + untill you have played it unlimited times) then i can chase back the money in the next bet (hopefully that is a + EV bet) and so on

But its a dissadvatage also:
If I lose my first bet but it's still a +EV bet and chase that back with -EV bets..than I will be in big trubble (but then must I count on my lucky star )


best regards and BOL

Thus, make only +EV bets to begin with.

[mathdotcom]

LT save your breath.

Just let him choke on his.

[tedastonishing]

On some other issues people, this weekend will be packed with picks.

Probably No more ATP after this series till Monday, not sure yet.

Tonight/tomorrow morning (EARLY) there is the NRL B and an Aussie Football A.

MLB is only yielding one pick for today, if it loses the B will be played tomorrow. (most likely will be +1.5 on a fav for today's pick which can be done on Betcris so please no bitching about it.)

There will also be Boxing this evening A and B if needed.

MMA wont happen unless the limits are raised by the first fight...as of right now they are too low.

And thats about it.

[Mudcat]

tedastonishing = cute handle

[G's pks]

Ted I have a system like this... What is left in baseball a few months? Four months have gone by in the season, I started my thread when the season started... I did need to make a few adjustments and especially to the money management end. I am up, all the picks every single one is posted in my baseball thread. The way I did it was try to build the bankroll up very slowly, which I did. Now for documentation sake.... I am slowly trying to build on that... I am up...and I believe I am one of a few... if not the only one in this thread that has kept a posted winning record since day one of the season. Maybe take a look through my thread and it might be helpful... GL G.

[tedastonishing]

7/31/2009
ATP
A = A Seppi -238 (2.38 x 25 = 59.5) W (3-0)

+4943.5
+25
= +4968.5

So Until next time Everybody MAJIDEEE

[HedgeHog]

I believe that the point he was making was that the BEST CASE was a 99% successful chase based on the HUGE odds the OP likes to lay, and even at those generous odds, he would STILL have just a 13% chance of 200 straight successes.

Thank you. That was exactly my point.

[tedastonishing]

Alright alright here we go.

MLB
A = Tampa Bay -290

NRL Rugby
B = Penrith Panthers -345

AFL
A = Collingwood Magpies -278

Boxing
A = Carl Davis Drummond -240

MMA
A = Pat Smith -245

Notes: All plays are to make 25, accept the AFL that is to make 50. MLB MMA and AFL will have B's tomorrow if needed.

[tedastonishing]

Oh sorry the B in NRL is trying to win 156 so 156 x 3.45 = 538.2 risk, all others are trying to win 25 and one 50

[tedastonishing]

Oh and also note that the NRL C if needed will be NEXT WEEK

[HedgeHog]

I knew you were going to bet Tampa, the heaviest baseball favorite on the board. BTW, -290 is a poor price, especially when you can get -265 at 5-Dimes ( and even better at Matchbook). I guess shopping for the best price isn't important to your "system".

[tedastonishing]

well if you wanna be a dick about they are -222 on Interwetten and the price I post is an average of 40 to 50 sports books. Oh and your astute guess non my pick was good, but there are 3 rules for MLB that made the play a go. I have not taken the heaviest fav if doesnt follow said rules, or I will just take the day off. TB met em.

[pico]

how come whenever there is a new system. there is always a rookie start following it

[wtf]

come on pico, this guy is ASTONISHING, he will be here for years flogging favorites

[tedastonishing]

hate all you want, I am simply showing another way to invest. I could have taken J Isner today in Tennis and he was just as favored as A Seppi, but I had Seppi...he won...Isner lost . So please stop telling me I am just doing martingale, when I am using a strategy and capping with set rules.

[pico]

I knew you were going to bet Tampa, the heaviest baseball favorite on the board. BTW, -290 is a poor price, especially when you can get -265 at 5-Dimes ( and even better at Matchbook). I guess shopping for the best price isn't important to your "system".

quote from jjgold: there is no juice when you win.

a win is a win. who cares about the line.

[tedastonishing]

7/31/2009
ATP
A = T Haas -333

If needed, B will be tomorrow

[LT Profits]

hate all you want, I am simply showing another way to invest. I could have taken J Isner today in Tennis and he was just as favored as A Seppi, but I had Seppi...he won...Isner lost . So please stop telling me I am just doing martingale, when I am using a strategy and capping with set rules.

And I had Ball +200 over Isner, as you may have seen in my thread. Point being, I feel it is MUCH better to build up a bankroll with +EV underdogs or small favorites. If you go through all my plays, you will almost never see me lay more than -130 on anything, and until this bad baseball season I am having, I had 14 straight winnings seasons across all sports. Laying big chalk may SEEM safe, but it will end up biting you in the ass in the end, especially when you are not getting the best possible price (i.e., Tampa Bay).

[tedastonishing]

+4968

MLB
A = Tampa Bay -290 risking 72.5

NRL Rugby
B = Penrith Panthers -345 risking 538.2

AFL
A = Collingwood Magpies -278 risking 139

Boxing
A = Carl Davis Drummond -240 risking 60

MMA
A = Pat Smith -245 risking 61.25

ATP
A = T Haas -333 risking 83.25

Total Risk tonight = 954.2

[pico]

they love you over there at eog

[pico]

quiet a following too

[tedastonishing]

yes I do try to diversify myself and see what diff forums have to bring to the table

[pico]

betfirstclass likes the system too