[i_pick_winners1]

Now known as:

7 Reasons I'm POUNDING Eagles...

Well, my friends, here I am. The first doucher that's going to take the Eagles and take them HARD tonight. Not only that, I plan on hammering the line if it continues to walk up, and I'll keep you posted on that. Here's why the Eagles have a chance.

1. They're home.

Philly are some of the most miserable and abusive football fans, and in this vein they expect toughness and balls from their teams. I can bet with full confidence that the vibe in that locker room today is one of wanting to play spoliers to a team that's gunning for the playoffs, and fans will show up and get loud to back that cause as well.

2. The Bengals are just not THAT good.

Let's face it, if this was New England coming into Philly needing a playoff spot, I could see the line running up several points from WHEREVER it started. This is the Andy Dalton-led Cincinatti Bengals that we're talking about though. Are they better on paper than Philadelphia? Yes. But, it's close enough here that heart is going to play a factor, and that's where Philly -- having an abhorrent season -- could show up tonight. Cinci showed their lack of spine last week against Dallas, enough said. The Philly O-line is going to have their hands full, yes, but they will double team accordingly and give the kid enough time to get his play off. Celek is the only NEW name out for Philly, and he did absolutely nothing last week. It might even be a welcome change for the Eagles at the position of TE.

3. Nick Foles' football IQ is high.

If you've watched the kid, he's improving. Constantly. Since he's been a starter he's shown improvement every week and heart every week. He doesn't make stupid plays : he slides when he scrambles, he throws the ball away instead of throwing picks, etc. He has great vision, which combined with the fact that...

4. The PRESSURE is on Cincinnati tonight...

...is going to allow the already cool, calm, and collected Foles to make smart, short gain, consistent plays and get his team into the endzone. Cinci know they're favorites the same way the Eagles know that nobody expects them to win. Sometimes, that's all a struggling team like Philly needs. Dalton has no playoff resume and hasn't been properly pressure tested in the NFL yet, he's going to be feeling it tonight -- and it could drive him to stupid plays.

5. Bryce Brown is going to be extremely focused on not fumbling.

Brown has had several great starts, all written off due to his seemingly consistent problem with holding the football like a loaf of bread and fumbling it the first time someone gets near him. He corrects this tonight. He's had weeks to settle in, the pressure of starting is off of him now as he's used to getting the nod. Tonight's the night his game comes together. I'd look for him to get ample yardage off of screen passes that are no doubt going to be one of Foles' fallback plans tonight for a lot of pass plays. When the kid gets the ball, he's lightning.

6. Andy Reid is STILL playing for his job in Philly.

If you think Andy Reid is definitely out after this year, you don't know him OR Jeffrey Lurie, and the relationship these two have. Lurie stated pre-season Eagles must go 8-8 if Reid wants to stay. Reid is still playing for that. Lurie seriously doesn't give a crap about the coach, as long as he makes money. Reid will be using personal excuses with them and knows if he can get a couple more wins, Lurie will keep him on. The two have been in bed together since they've been together in Philly. Philly fans hate it, but citing "bringing up a new QB in Foles", Reid has a chance of keeping his job next year if he can win out.

7. Eagles receiving core is showing signs of life.

Avant had the catch of his career last game and Cooper is coming around, into the system more with Jackson out. These are no BS receivers, who play with little or no showmanship. They are mostly going to be playing tonight for jobs elsewhere, with the exception of Cooper who will be playing to keep his job. Must be the haircut, but Foles seems to have taken a shine to Cooper who is consistent at best. I'd look for him to be a difference maker tonight though in a game that he no doubtedly convinced himself is going to be one that will dictate his future in both Philly and the NFL.

---

Don't get me wrong, I love a good chalk-fest. NE was an easy pick for me on Monday despite the line moving -- but tonight has all the makings of the perfect storm of upset. Bookies will love this game, but the big money is on Philly as well as Cinci. Difference in bet sizes between the two isn't much, it's just that the general public is leaning on Cinci about 61%/39% as of right now.

My play tonight is huge on Eagles +5.5, half-huge on Eagles ML, half-huge on -6.5 (+400), with a matching huge play on the over.

Also, I plan on consistently and systematically ADDING to my bet as the line moves in my advantage every half point.

---

Best of luck to all bettors.

[i_pick_winners1]

59%/41% now, action evening out between 5 & 5.5. Still expect to see 6 before the game, which I'm going to hit in addition to my original action.

[SteveRyan]

Michael Vick - OUT
Lesean McCoy - OUT
Desean Jackson - OUT

good luck with that....

Cincinnati by 20

[i_pick_winners1]

Michael Vick - OUT
Lesean McCoy - OUT
Desean Jackson - OUT

good luck with that....

Cincinnati by 20

Michael Vick - Led the team to it's horrible state this year, played awful.
Lesean McCoy - Bryce Brown had just under a combined 350 rushing yards in the first two starts of his career this year, and will bounce back after a shitty week last week.
Desean Jackson - Did precisely jack, with no hustle, all season before getting injured.

Why not go as far as to cite Celek being out as a problem, too? ROFL.

[nrok2118]

As an Eagles fan, Im now hoping they lose (for selfish better draft pick reasoning). But I definitely see a lot of angles for the upset tonight. Main ones are a lot of young guys trying to prove themselves. And Andy Reid is coaching for his life and will pull out all the stops from here on out, which is even more deadly since they have nothing to lose. The Bengals are VERY hit and miss, and could easily miss tonight. I love the line movement, Eagles should easily cover at 5.5. Im staying away though, unless it keeps going and buying to 7 is reasonable. I will disagree with you, though, on the total. Thursday night games are usually under gems with both teams on short rest and short gameplanning. Plus these two teams can be explosive, but pretty tame for the most part, and the Eagles have a lot of trouble getting the ball in the end zone. 1H under is my play...but wouldnt surprise me one bit if the Eagles win this game tonight.

[tailin junkie]

Best eagles can finish is 7-9

[i_pick_winners1]

@nrok, nice post -- and I really think losing out vs. winning out, the draft situation isn't going to mean that much.

@tailin -- you're right, but that's enough for LURIE to say "close enough", and keep his boyfriend Reid on the payroll.

[PAULYPOKER]

6. Andy Reid is STILL playing for his job in Philly.

Best one liner of the year............

[stevenash]

Opening post is well written, good job.
I just don't trust Philly is why I'll lay off, I hope the OP cashes though.

[i_pick_winners1]

6. Andy Reid is STILL playing for his job in Philly.

Best one liner of the year............

I have people very close to Lurie in Philadelphia and his relationship with Reid is EXTREMELY tight-knit. Shouldn't be a laugh, it's unfortunately true.

[i_pick_winners1]

Opening post is well written, good job.
I just don't trust Philly is why I'll lay off, I hope the OP cashes though.

Thanks -- on a side note, I like your Lakers tonight on the ML as well.

[Big Bear]

Heres the thing i watched the Bengals get stomped by the Ravens in the first game of the season after that i just completely dismissed them and havent even thought about betting on them once this season.

I just think they are inconsistent and extremely overrated. A fraud if you will.

And Philly well talk about jeckll and hyde. Most unpredictable team not named the Cowboys.

This game is a no bet for me. I dont need the action that bad.

But just a lil FYI to the OP the Stadium will be half empty tonight... The Philly fans gave up on this team a long time ago.

[PAULYPOKER]

I have people very close to Lurie in Philadelphia and his relationship with Reid is EXTREMELY tight-knit. Shouldn't be a laugh, it's unfortunately true.

Well this explains why he wasn't fired 5 years ago,

Eagles are doomed until they are gutted and rebuilt from the inside out............

[coitus_maximus]

I see the game close. Think all value is lost on Cincy now past the key numbers of 3 and 4. I would be a bit surprised to see the Eagles win, but can also see them playing hard. It is just more difficult playing the Natti since I see them more balanced. Had Cincy -3 to begin, but as line climbs higher, may take eagles money

[i_pick_winners1]

Well this explains why he wasn't fired 5 years ago,

Dude, you're 100% right.

But just a lil FYI to the OP the Stadium will be half empty tonight... The Philly fans gave up on this team a long time ago.

Disagree. The city is interested in the kid Foles and tickets are cheap and available. People will show up.

[i_pick_winners1]

Betting public showing a *bit* more confidence on the Eagles heading into 8PM.

Consensus lists the action at 57%/43% now with $703,881 on the Bengals (avg bet size $197) & $407,056 on Eagles (avg bet size $152).

[crackerjack]

As an Eagles fan, Im now hoping they lose (for selfish better draft pick reasoning). But I definitely see a lot of angles for the upset tonight. Main ones are a lot of young guys trying to prove themselves. And Andy Reid is coaching for his life and will pull out all the stops from here on out, which is even more deadly since they have nothing to lose. The Bengals are VERY hit and miss, and could easily miss tonight. I love the line movement, Eagles should easily cover at 5.5. Im staying away though, unless it keeps going and buying to 7 is reasonable. I will disagree with you, though, on the total. Thursday night games are usually under gems with both teams on short rest and short gameplanning. Plus these two teams can be explosive, but pretty tame for the most part, and the Eagles have a lot of trouble getting the ball in the end zone. 1H under is my play...but wouldnt surprise me one bit if the Eagles win this game tonight.

What does that even mean? Reid is as good as gone...he's not even on life support here. That plug got pulled weeks ago.

[crackerjack]

I have people very close to Lurie in Philadelphia and his relationship with Reid is EXTREMELY tight-knit. Shouldn't be a laugh, it's unfortunately true.

Are they bed buds? What is the line on Andy Reid coaching in Philadelphia next year? Whatever the odds, I'd bet against it as a lock of the century. The only reason he hasn't been fired yet is out of professional courtesy.

[i_pick_winners1]

Are they bed buds? What is the line on Andy Reid coaching in Philadelphia next year? Whatever the odds, I'd bet against it as a lock of the century. The only reason he hasn't been fired yet is out of professional courtesy.

You'd think so, but the fact that the Eagles have fired every other coach on the team plus their VP of Communication and VP of Marketing -- plus Lurie & Reids track record -- lead this guy to think the odds aren't as crazy as you'd think for Reid staying if he can win out this season with Foles.

[NittanyLionsFan]

Lol T eagles -6.5 get a mother penetrating clue bro

[nrok2118]

What does that even mean? Reid is as good as gone...he's not even on life support here. That plug got pulled weeks ago.

Dont be so sure. While I agree hes good as gone, theres a lot of buzz in Philly that with a late run he may be given one last chance. Hes always touted as a "QB developer", so if we want to stick with Foles next year Lurie could easily say "Because of many unforeseen injuries, Reids personal dilemma (son dying), and lack of supporting staff (all these assistant firing), we've decided to bring Andy back another year to help develop Foles and lead this team to the Championship run this town deserves"....or some bullshit. And whether or not we know Andy is gone, as long as he has his job hes gonna do what he can to win in any last ditch effort to keep his job.

[crackerjack]

Dont be so sure. While I agree hes good as gone, theres a lot of buzz in Philly that with a late run he may be given one last chance. Hes always touted as a "QB developer", so if we want to stick with Foles next year Lurie could easily say "Because of many unforeseen injuries, Reids personal dilemma (son dying), and lack of supporting staff (all these assistant firing), we've decided to bring Andy back another year to help develop Foles and lead this team to the Championship run this town deserves"....or some bullshit. And whether or not we know Andy is gone, as long as he has his job hes gonna do what he can to win in any last ditch effort to keep his job.

He was told before the season that an 8-8 season wasn't going to cut it... This season has been a debacle. I will bet all my points that Reid doesn't coach the Eagles next year, bet refunded if they lose one of their last three games.

[crackerjack]

Dont be so sure. While I agree hes good as gone, theres a lot of buzz in Philly that with a late run he may be given one last chance. Hes always touted as a "QB developer", so if we want to stick with Foles next year Lurie could easily say "Because of many unforeseen injuries, Reids personal dilemma (son dying), and lack of supporting staff (all these assistant firing), we've decided to bring Andy back another year to help develop Foles and lead this team to the Championship run this town deserves"....or some bullshit. And whether or not we know Andy is gone, as long as he has his job hes gonna do what he can to win in any last ditch effort to keep his job.

This I agree with but three wins won't save his job.

[nrok2118]

He was told before the season that an 8-8 season wasn't going to cut it... This season has been a debacle. I will bet all my points that Reid doesn't coach the Eagles next year, bet refunded if they lose one of their last three games.

Actually Lurie came out and said (mid season) that his 8-8 statement was not considering unforeseen injuries, and basically gave himself a reason for a cop out since I think he really didnt think this team could fail this year.

[hugh4310]

Well it's a good thing your on Eagles! They get blown out tonight

[i_pick_winners1]

Minor abberations so far. Nick Foles, cool calm and collected will lead them back. I'm hitting Eagles ML live betting as we speak.

[Parligod]

Ouch sofar. Also I found out someone I know is pounding Bengals hard in FFL who is one of the best around; doesn't bode well for Eagles when I saw this guy doing that.

GL either way.

[nrok2118]

Minor abberations so far. Nick Foles, cool calm and collected will lead them back. I'm hitting Eagles ML live betting as we speak.

Dude, seriously? This team is bad. They have glimmers of decency, but its clear they have their B game tonight. They are gonna get blown out. They're killing my under with all these turnovers already

[El Sol]

Ouch sofar. Also I found out someone I know is pounding Bengals hard in FFL who is one of the best around; doesn't bode well for Eagles when I saw this guy doing that.

GL either way.

Parli- You still playing online poker full time?

[ttwarrior1]

saloon this shit from a ghost

[i_pick_winners1]

Better throw ANOTHER nickel on Eagles +13.5 live.

[Butterface]

Good luck man I got Eagles +12.5 before tip off. Hopefully they can pick it up offensively. If it wasn't for those 2 turnovers it would be 0-0.

[paco]

Back within 3...

[i_pick_winners1]

Ri-Ri. Gettin' the white boy a touch.

Must be the haircut, but Foles seems to have taken a shine to Cooper who is consistent at best. I'd look for him to be a difference maker tonight though in a game that he no doubtedly convinced himself is going to be one that will dictate his future in both Philly and the NFL.

[paco]

Turnover. Can the eagles capitalize here?...