[Romanov]

How will you acvount for the injuries on phi?

[ny92mike]

Alright, here it is.

		Record	Field Correlation	Non-Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	PhiladelphiaEagles	4 - 9	29%	27%	-52%	Group 7	18.9	19.0	17.0	-26.6
Away	CincinnatiBengals	7 - 6	56%	27%	26%	Group 2	26.8	24.0	23.0	26.6
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	AtlantaFalcons	11 - 2	88%	71%	35%	Group 2	21.5	24.0	27.0	-5.6
Away	NewYorkGiants	8 - 5	42%	71%	28%	Group 3	18.4	27.0	13.0	5.6
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	BaltimoreRavens	9 - 4	74%	81%	12%	Group 4	18.9	23.0	22.0	-16.4
Away	DenverBroncos	10 - 3	70%	71%	41%	Group 1	23.4	31.0	31.0	16.4
		Record	Field Correlation	Div	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	ChicagoBears	8 - 5	74%	28%	54%	Group 2	21.5	23.0	10.0	-1.0
Away	GreenBayPackers	9 - 4	42%	57%	28%	Group 3	18.4	24.0	19.3	1.0
		Record	Field Correlation	Non-Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	ClevelandBrowns	5 - 8	59%	0%	-2%	Group 5	23.2	20.0	17.5	-14.8
Away	WashingtonRedskins	7 - 6	42%	14%	-4%	Group 4	21.3	28.0	31.0	14.8
		Record	Field Correlation	Div	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	HoustonTexans	11 - 2	74%	57%	62%	Group 1	18.9	27.0	27.5	28.1
Away	IndianapolisColts	9 - 4	42%	42%	-10%	Group 5	21.4	23.0	22.0	-28.1
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	MiamiDolphins	5 - 8	44%	30%	-12%	Group 7	27.3	17.0	35.0	18.2
Away	JacksonvilleJaguars	2 - 11	14%	20%	-92%	Group 8	26.8	15.0	10.0	-18.2
		Record	Field Correlation	Div	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	NewOrleansSaints	5 - 8	44%	28%	-5%	Group 6	21.5	27.0	#DIV/0!	-14.9
Away	TampaBayBuccaneers	6 - 7	42%	28%	48%	Group 3	23.6	27.0	21.5	14.9
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	St.LouisRams	6 - 6	59%	50%	-12%	Group 6	18.9	17.0	18.5	-9.2
Away	MinnesotaVikings	7 - 6	14%	50%	6%	Group 5	23.6	21.0	17.0	9.2
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	ArizonaCardinals	4 - 9	44%	20%	-46%	Group 8	21.5	17.0	20.0	-36.6
Away	DetroitLions	4 - 9	28%	30%	-12%	Group 3	27.4	26.0	31.0	36.6
		Record	Field Correlation	Non-Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	BuffaloBills	5 - 8	44%	14%	-38%	Group 5	18.9	24.0	#DIV/0!	-15.9
Away	SeattleSeahawks	8 - 5	28%	27%	61%	Group 2	21.3	23.0	27.0	15.9
		Record	Field Correlation	Non-Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	SanDiegoChargers	5 - 8	29%	0%	-5%	Group 6	18.9	24.0	24.0	-0.6
Away	CarolinaPanthers	4 - 9	28%	0%	-20%	Group 6	23.6	21.0	21.0	0.6
		Record	Field Correlation	Non-Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	DallasCowboys	7 - 6	44%	27%	16%	Group 4	23.2	23.0	34.5	-3.7
Away	PittsburghSteelers	7 - 6	42%	41%	-10%	Group 4	23.4	23.0	23.3	3.7
		Record	Field Correlation	Div	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	OaklandRaiders	3 - 10	29%	14%	-81%	Group 8	27.3	17.0	26.0	7.2
Away	KansasCityChiefs	2 - 11	14%	0%	-79%	Group 8	27.4	13.0	16.0	-7.2
		Record	Field Correlation	Non-Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	NewEnglandPatriots	10 - 3	74%	14%	90%	Group 1	19.9	34.0	41.7	18.5
Away	SanFrancisco49ers	9 - 3	56%	41%	100%	Group 1	21.4	27.0	45.0	-18.5
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	TennesseeTitans	4 - 9	29%	30%	####	Group 7	18.9	19.0	21.0	-4.0
Away	NewYorkJets	6 - 7	42%	40%	-64%	Group 7	26.8	17.0	29.0	4.0

[ny92mike]

How will you acvount for the injuries on phi?

Currently, the formula I'm using doesn't account for injuries at all. GL

[ny92mike]

Here are week 16 projections
There were several games that stood out within the formula. I’ll be betting on those games but was hoping to get some feedback to make sure I’m not overlooking the obvious. Thanks.
SD +2.5
CHI -5.5
STL +3
CIN +4
BUF +4.5
NO +3
ATL -3.5

		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result	Spread
Home	DetroitLions	4 - 10	25%	27%	-26%	Group 3	20.8	25	15.5	-11	3.5
Away	AtlantaFalcons	12 - 2	72%	73%	49%	Group 2	22.7	25.5	#DIV/0!	11	-3.5
		Record	Field Correlation	Non-Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	BaltimoreRavens	9 - 5	63%	15%	21%	Group 4	20.8	23	#DIV/0!	-4.7	2.5
Away	NewYorkGiants	8 - 6	43%	15%	12%	Group 2	21.6	26.5	23.5	4.7	-2.5
		Record	Field Correlation	Non-Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	CarolinaPanthers	5 - 9	25%	15%	9%	Group 6	20.8	21	#DIV/0!	4.9	-8.5
Away	OaklandRaiders	4 - 10	14%	0%	-84%	Group 5	22.5	17	32	-4.9	8.5
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	DallasCowboys	8 - 6	51%	45%	19%	Group 3	23.2	23.5	13	-3.9	-3
Away	NewOrleansSaints	6 - 8	29%	36%	17%	Group 1	22.7	27.5	26	3.9	3
		Record	Field Correlation	Non-Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	GreenBayPackers	10 - 4	76%	29%	28%	Group 6	24.4	24	23	10	-13
Away	TennesseeTitans	5 - 9	29%	15%	-69%	Group 5	22.5	16.5	#DIV/0!	-10	13
		Record	Field Correlation	Non-Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	HoustonTexans	12 - 2	76%	29%	62%	Group 4	20.8	28	33	10.6	-7.5
Away	MinnesotaVikings	8 - 6	29%	29%	35%	Group 4	21.6	21	20	-10.6	7.5
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	JacksonvilleJaguars	2 - 12	13%	18%	-127%	Group 8	23.2	14.5	21.7	-38.2	14.5
Away	NewEnglandPatriots	10 - 4	72%	82%	100%	Group 1	25.3	34	23	38.2	-14.5
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	KansasCityChiefs	2 - 12	13%	0%	-111%	Group 7	23.2	13	13	-17.6	6.5
Away	IndianapolisColts	9 - 5	43%	54%	-6%	Group 1	23.5	22	15.7	17.6	-6.5
		Record	Field Correlation	Div	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	MiamiDolphins	6 - 8	51%	13%	-18%	Group 8	20.8	18.5	13	-3.4	-4.5
Away	BuffaloBills	5 - 9	29%	13%	-109%	Group 3	25.3	21.5	26.5	3.4	4.5
		Record	Field Correlation	Div	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	PhiladelphiaEagles	4 - 10	25%	13%	-68%	Group 5	20.8	18	18	-15.2
Away	WashingtonRedskins	8 - 6	58%	40%	12%	Group 2	23.6	29.5	31	15.2
		Record	Field Correlation	Div	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	PittsburghSteelers	7 - 7	51%	27%	-6%	Group 7	23.1	23.5	23	-9	-4
Away	CincinnatiBengals	8 - 6	72%	13%	24%	Group 3	23.5	25.5	25.5	9	4
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	TampaBayBuccaneers	6 - 8	38%	27%	14%	Group 2	20.8	25	21.5	9.9	-3
Away	St.LouisRams	6 - 7	29%	45%	-24%	Group 6	21	18	20.5	-9.9	3
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	DenverBroncos	11 - 3	63%	73%	65%	Group 1	22.4	31	36	18.7	-13.5
Away	ClevelandBrowns	5 - 9	14%	45%	-9%	Group 6	22.8	20	13.5	-18.7	13.5
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	ArizonaCardinals	5 - 9	51%	27%	-32%	Group 8	23	17	#DIV/0!	-16.5	5.5
Away	ChicagoBears	8 - 6	43%	45%	84%	Group 7	25.3	20	41	16.5	-5.5
		Record	Field Correlation	Div	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	SeattleSeahawks	9 - 5	76%	13%	94%	Group 4	24.4	23.5	22.5	-0.8	-1
Away	SanFrancisco49ers	10 - 3	72%	27%	74%	Group 5	21.6	27	13	0.8	1
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	NewYorkJets	6 - 8	38%	36%	-57%	Group 7	20.8	17	8.7	-3.3	-2.5
Away	SanDiegoChargers	5 - 9	43%	45%	4%	Group 8	23.5	23.5	31.5	3.3	2.5
	Stand out games
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	NewYorkJets	6 - 8	38%	36%	-57%	Group 7	20.8	17	8.7	-3.3	-2.5
Away	SanDiegoChargers	5 - 9	43%	45%	4%	Group 8	23.5	23.5	31.5	3.3	2.5
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	ArizonaCardinals	5 - 9	51%	27%	-32%	Group 8	23	17	#DIV/0!	-16.5	5.5
Away	ChicagoBears	8 - 6	43%	45%	84%	Group 7	25.3	20	41	16.5	-5.5
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	TampaBayBuccaneers	6 - 8	38%	27%	14%	Group 2	20.8	25	21.5	9.9	-3
Away	St.LouisRams	6 - 7	29%	45%	-24%	Group 6	21	18	20.5	-9.9	3
		Record	Field Correlation	Div	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	PittsburghSteelers	7 - 7	51%	27%	-6%	Group 7	23.1	23.5	23	-9	-4
Away	CincinnatiBengals	8 - 6	72%	13%	24%	Group 3	23.5	25.5	25.5	9	4
		Record	Field Correlation	Div	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	MiamiDolphins	6 - 8	51%	13%	-18%	Group 8	20.8	18.5	13	-3.4	-4.5
Away	BuffaloBills	5 - 9	29%	13%	-109%	Group 3	25.3	21.5	26.5	3.4	4.5
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result
Home	DallasCowboys	8 - 6	51%	45%	19%	Group 3	23.2	23.5	13	-3.9	-3
Away	NewOrleansSaints	6 - 8	29%	36%	17%	Group 1	22.7	27.5	26	3.9	3
		Record	Field Correlation	Conf	SoS	Group Rank	League Median PPG	Team Median PPG	Grouped PPG	Match Up Result	Spread
Home	DetroitLions	4 - 10	25%	27%	-26%	Group 3	20.8	25	15.5	-11	3.5
Away	AtlantaFalcons	12 - 2	72%	73%	49%	Group 2	22.7	25.5	#DIV/0!	11	-3.5

[ny92mike]

Any thoughts on the games I've pointed out?...Think they'll cover the spread?

[ny92mike]

Week 17 Projections below, my picks for the week are Jets +3/ NE -10/ Baltimore +120/ Ten -4/ Chi -3/ NO -5.5/ St. Louis +11

GL

Field	Team	Group	Conf	Div	SoS	Field Correl	League Avg	League Median	Team Adv.	Adj. Team Adv.	Match-up	Betting		Pt. Spread
Home	AtlantaFalcons	Group 2	NFC	NCS	22%	77%	25.7	24.0	23.3	21	56.9	O/U	42.0
Away	TampaBayBuccaneers	Group 4	NFC	NCS	-16%	41%	20.9	22.0	22.7	21	48.0	ATS	0.0
Field	Team	Group	Conf	Div	SoS	Field Correl	League Avg	League Median	Team Adv.	Adj. Team Adv.	Match-up	Betting		Pt. Spread
Home	BuffaloBills	Group 7	AFC	ACE	-2%	33%	24.4	23.0	21.7	21	50.5	O/U	42.0	-3
Away	NewYorkJets	Group 6	AFC	ACE	51%	41%	22.5	20.0	21.7	21	50.7	ATS	0.0	3
Field	Team	Group	Conf	Div	SoS	Field Correl	League Avg	League Median	Team Adv.	Adj. Team Adv.	Match-up	Betting		Pt. Spread
Home	CincinnatiBengals	Group 3	AFC	ACN	-58%	33%	23.8	23.0	27.3	27	52.4	O/U	62.0	-2.5
Away	BaltimoreRavens	Group 3	AFC	ACN	58%	55%	24.2	24.0	35.0	35	52.6	ATS	8.0	2.5
Field	Team	Group	Conf	Div	SoS	Field Correl	League Avg	League Median	Team Adv.	Adj. Team Adv.	Match-up	Betting		Pt. Spread
Home	DetroitLions	Group 7	NFC	NCN	-6%	22%	19.1	20.0	15.7	14	45.8	O/U	49.0	3
Away	ChicagoBears	Group 3	NFC	NCN	10%	55%	33.6	30.5	35.0	35	57.6	ATS	21.0	-3
Field	Team	Group	Conf	Div	SoS	Field Correl	League Avg	League Median	Team Adv.	Adj. Team Adv.	Match-up	Betting		Pt. Spread
Home	IndianapolisColts	Group 6	AFC	ACS	-28%	66%	17.7	18.0	23.7	21	46.7	O/U	48.0	7
Away	HoustonTexans	Group 1	AFC	ACS	-55%	82%	30.2	28.5	27.3	27	57.7	ATS	6.0	-7
Field	Team	Group	Conf	Div	SoS	Field Correl	League Avg	League Median	Team Adv.	Adj. Team Adv.	Match-up	Betting		Pt. Spread
Home	MinnesotaVikings	Group 3	NFC	NCN	-10%	66%	26.4	26.5	21.3	21	50.5	O/U	41.0	3
Away	GreenBayPackers	Group 2	NFC	NCN	-25%	55%	24.0	25.5	20.3	20	55.0	ATS	1.0	-3
Field	Team	Group	Conf	Div	SoS	Field Correl	League Avg	League Median	Team Adv.	Adj. Team Adv.	Match-up	Betting		Pt. Spread
Home	NewEnglandPatriots	Group 1	AFC	ACE	62%	55%	30.2	29.5	42.3	42	61.9	O/U	56.0	-10
Away	MiamiDolphins	Group 5	AFC	ACE		27%	15.6	16.5	16.7	14	44.2	ATS	28.0	10
Field	Team	Group	Conf	Div	SoS	Field Correl	League Avg	League Median	Team Adv.	Adj. Team Adv.	Match-up	Betting		Pt. Spread
Home	NewOrleansSaints	Group 4	NFC	NCS	7%	44%	27.6	27.5	34.3	34	52.3	O/U	51.0	-5.5
Away	CarolinaPanthers	Group 4	NFC	NCS	-16%	41%	24.6	27.0	18.3	17	51.4	ATS	17.0	5.5
Field	Team	Group	Conf	Div	SoS	Field Correl	League Avg	League Median	Team Adv.	Adj. Team Adv.	Match-up	Betting		Pt. Spread
Home	NewYorkGiants	Group 4	NFC	NCE	38%	55%	26.1	27.0	17.0	17	57.5	O/U	31.0	-7
Away	PhiladelphiaEagles	Group 8	NFC	NCE	-30%	27%	16.3	14.0	16.8	14	44.9	ATS	3.0	7
Field	Team	Group	Conf	Div	SoS	Field Correl	League Avg	League Median	Team Adv.	Adj. Team Adv.	Match-up	Betting		Pt. Spread
Home	PittsburghSteelers	Group 5	AFC	ACN	-23%	44%	22.3	22.5	24.0	24	52.4	O/U	38.0
Away	ClevelandBrowns	Group 6	AFC	ACN	-10%	14%	18.6	18.0	15.7	14	50.4	ATS	10.0
Field	Team	Group	Conf	Div	SoS	Field Correl	League Avg	League Median	Team Adv.	Adj. Team Adv.	Match-up	Betting		Pt. Spread
Home	TennesseeTitans	Group 7	AFC	ACS	4%	33%	26.5	26.0	32.7	31	51.0	O/U	52.0	-4
Away	JacksonvilleJaguars	Group 8	AFC	ACS		14%	20.8	19.0	21.7	21	48.7	ATS	10.0	4
Field	Team	Group	Conf	Div	SoS	Field Correl	League Avg	League Median	Team Adv.	Adj. Team Adv.	Match-up	Betting		Pt. Spread
Home	WashingtonRedskins	Group 2	NFC	NCE	-22%	44%	24.6	24.0	24.7	24	56.1	O/U	48.0	-3
Away	DallasCowboys	Group 5	NFC	NCE	11%	55%	22.9	23.0	26.0	24	48.3	ATS	0.0	3
Field	Team	Group	Conf	Div	SoS	Field Correl	League Avg	League Median	Team Adv.	Adj. Team Adv.	Match-up	Betting		Pt. Spread
Home	DenverBroncos	Group 1	AFC	ACW	-40%	66%	31.3	27.5	26.7	24	64.0	O/U	37.0	-16
Away	KansasCityChiefs	Group 8	AFC	ACW		14%	14.3	14.5	13.0	13	39.2	ATS	11.0	16
Field	Team	Group	Conf	Div	SoS	Field Correl	League Avg	League Median	Team Adv.	Adj. Team Adv.	Match-up	Betting		Pt. Spread
Home	SanDiegoChargers	Group 5	AFC	ACW	36%	22%	24.1	23.0	29.0	28	54.4	O/U	48.0
Away	OaklandRaiders	Group 7	AFC	ACW		14%	19.1	17.0	20.3	20	47.4	ATS	8.0
Field	Team	Group	Conf	Div	SoS	Field Correl	League Avg	League Median	Team Adv.	Adj. Team Adv.	Match-up	Betting		Pt. Spread
Home	SanFrancisco49ers	Group 2	NFC	NCW	25%	55%	30.9	27.0	32.0	31	60.3	O/U	44.0	-16.5
Away	ArizonaCardinals	Group 8	NFC	NCW	30%	14%	16.0	17.0	13.0	13	43.0	ATS	18.0	16.5
Field	Team	Group	Conf	Div	SoS	Field Correl	League Avg	League Median	Team Adv.	Adj. Team Adv.	Match-up	Betting		Pt. Spread
Home	SeattleSeahawks	Group 1	NFC	NCW	5%	77%	30.2	29.0	20.7	20	58.5	O/U	34.0	-11
Away	St.LouisRams	Group 6	NFC	NCW	-36%	41%	16.0	17.0	16.5	14	46.5	ATS	6.0	11

[ny92mike]

Hopefully none of you lost any money following this formula. Like most it isn't without flaws. I plan to collect the data to try to figure out how to refine, what I consider, its potential to win us some money next year.

GL

[wantitall4moi]

similar to what I do with my system but mine is a lot let complicated. You cant use the score result average and compare it to the spread, best to find score result average differentials and chart them and see how they do against the spread.

For example Seattle and Rams would be a 4.2 for Team Adv, and a 6 for the adjusted team Adv. You have to then set up a chart that shows how all teams with those results fared against the spread. I would call it -4.2 and -6 since Seattle was the home team. So you have two things to compare that way. Which helps fine tune it somewhat.

The only problem is blow out games and goofy plays can effect the averages quite a bit. So you have to be mindful of that as well. Not sure if the adjusted stuff takes that into account or not. But if a team has been giving up an average of 20 at home and then one game has 4 turn overs or gives up a couple special team scores and they have 50 score on them, than is a 'fluke' not 'good' data'. So it has to be weighted.

[ny92mike]

similar to what I do with my system but mine is a lot let complicated. You cant use the score result average and compare it to the spread, best to find score result average differentials and chart them and see how they do against the spread.

For example Seattle and Rams would be a 4.2 for Team Adv, and a 6 for the adjusted team Adv. You have to then set up a chart that shows how all teams with those results fared against the spread. I would call it -4.2 and -6 since Seattle was the home team. So you have two things to compare that way. Which helps fine tune it somewhat.

The only problem is blow out games and goofy plays can effect the averages quite a bit. So you have to be mindful of that as well. Not sure if the adjusted stuff takes that into account or not. But if a team has been giving up an average of 20 at home and then one game has 4 turn overs or gives up a couple special team scores and they have 50 score on them, than is a 'fluke' not 'good' data'. So it has to be weighted.

Thanks for the feedback...Agreed, that the average needs to take into account fluke games. This is typically where I inject median rather than average. Eliminates the use of the lowest and highest score.

Someone else mentioned charting the spread so I'll be plugging in the spread totals over the next few months in an attempt to find some type of correlation with the spread and the formula I'm using. What I did notice was that the formula was extremely accurate with some teams, in both projected scores as well as projected match-up, while others rarely hit. Now some of that could account for injuries, poor play, etc. but mainly I think it came from the inconsistent teams, like the Giants and Cowboys. Where teams like Philly and NE has played very consistent with one being consistently bad the other good.

The problem I see is the number of variables that decide a win or loss. Honestly there is just to many to accurately calculate at least at my level.

If you ever wanna knockaround some ideas hit me up, love talking about this stuff.

[ny92mike]

I wasn’t happy with the results I was getting from my previous system, so I went back to excel and started looking at different ways stats correlated into wins this time with the spread in mind. The process I’m using is a calculated formula that uses stats from previous weeks to determine the next week’s outcome. When comparing the match up for each week the formula provides me with what I call a Strength Comparison Number (SCN). The SCN is then forecasted against prior season SCN results, 2009 to 2011 to be exact, to project a possible score for each team in the hopes of betting the spread.
Testing was calculated for 2010 and 2011 using SCN results using 2009 findings and the 2012 season was conducted using combined results from 2009, 2010, and 2011 with 66% ATS accuracy and 76.9% ATS when probability percentage is factored into the equation between weeks 9 and 17. I assume this is because it usually takes that long to truly start gaging how good a team really is be it stat or what I’ve heard called the “eye test”. In doing my research and viewing the results I’ve noticed that the formula appears to get confused during weeks 5 thru 8 as you’ll see in the diagram below.

	Count	sum	%	Count	Sum	%
Week_05	14	5	35.7%	4	1	25.0%
Week_06	14	6	42.9%	3	1	33.3%
Week_07	13	2	15.4%	0	0
Week_08	14	3	21.4%	3	2	66.7%
Week_09	14	9	64.3%	5	3	60.0%
Week_10	14	9	64.3%	3	2	66.7%
Week_11	14	7	50.0%	3	3	100.0%
Week_12	16	12	75.0%	4	3	75.0%
Week_13	16	10	62.5%	4	3	75.0%
Week_14	16	11	68.8%	2	2	100.0%
Week_15	16	12	75.0%	5	4	80.0%
	106	70	66.0%	26	20	76.9%

For week two, the outcome has been most welcoming. Excluding Monday night’s game, the straight up was 64% accurate; ATS 71% accurate; ATS w/ Probability 70%; over / under managed to hit 86% accuracy and the Vegas Dif. (The difference between the projected line and that of the Vegas Line) landed at 70%. Now obviously, the formula isn’t going to hit like this every week as you can see in the chart above, it is sporadic at best in the early weeks of the season.

Weekly Schedule	Straight Up	Sides	Against The Spread	ATS Prob.	Over / Under	Vegas Dif.
Week_02 | StLouisRams @ AtlantaFalcons	0	Dog	0	58.52%	1	11.0
Week_02 | CarolinaPanthers @ BuffaloBills	1	Dog	1	44.66%	1	9.5
Week_02 | MinnesotaVikings @ ChicagoBears	1	Fav	0	42.55%	1	1.7
Week_02 | MiamiDolphins @ IndianapolisColts	1	Dog	1	57.26%	0	7.0
Week_02 | WashingtonRedskins @ GreenBayPackers	1	Dog	1	46.43%	1	12.1
Week_02 | TennesseeTitans @ HoustonTexans	1	Dog	1	45.79%	1	2.9
Week_02 | DallasCowboys @ KansasCityChiefs	1	Dog	1	50.93%	1	2.0
Week_02 | SanDiegoChargers @ PhiladelphiaEagles	0	Dog	1	44.30%	1	1.2
Week_02 | ClevelandBrowns @ BaltimoreRavens	1	Fav	1	42.91%	1	0.4
Week_02 | DetroitLions @ ArizonaCardinals	1	Dog	1	51.71%	0	2.4
Week_02 | NewOrleansSaints @ TampaBayBuccaneers	0	Dog	1	52.02%	1	3.7
Week_02 | DenverBroncos @ NewYorkGiants	0	Dog	0	51.94%	1	4.7
Week_02 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ OaklandRaiders	1	Fav	1	45.36%	1	0.9
Week_02 | SanFrancisco49ers @ SeattleSeahawks	0	Dog	0	53.08%	1	3.7
Week_02 | PittsburghSteelers @ CincinnatiBengals
	Straight Up	Fav | Dog	Against The Spread	ATS Probability	Over / Under	Vegas Dif.
Count	14	67%	14	10	14	10
Sum	9	73%	10	7	12	7
Percentage	64%		71%	70%	86%	70%

The above listing shows the results from week 2, in columns “Straight Up”, “Against the Spread”, and “Over / Under” a 1 is displayed for the formula selecting a correct pick and a 0 for an incorrect pick. The ATS Prob. is the probability percentage of the formula making the correct selection. The Vegas Dif. is the difference between the projected Vegas line and the actual Vegas line.
The Lines used to determine this week’s wins are from Bovada http://sports.bovada.lv/ I’m sure there is probably a better site, if so please educate me.
I’m not completely sold on the O/U results from the system regardless the high percentage from this week. Reason being is when using the forecast formula to project the score the forecast will average out to 43 to 44 total points for each game throughout 3 years of data. I’m currently looking at other methods to find the over/ under. Also, I don’t suggest betting on games using this method until after week 8. I just wanted to get it out there so I could show a week to week result.
I keep bringing up past data which I’m sure that you want to check out as well, should you have any interest in my handicapping system. There are several lines of data so I’ll pull only 2009 results which is still 256 rows.

Week	Visiting SCN	Visiting Score	Home SCN	Home Score	O/U	Difference	Vegas Spread	Probability
week_10	-75.97	28	75.97	23	51	-5	-14.5	99%
week_05	-74.37	38	74.37	10	48	-28	-10.5	99%
week_07	-68.97	42	68.97	6	48	-36	-14.5	99%
week_11	-63.98	38	63.98	7	45	-31	-10.5	97%
week_17	-63.76	21	63.76	13	34	-8	-10	97%
week_12	-62.48	34	62.48	12	46	-22	-11.5	97%
week_07	-59.65	31	59.65	3	34	-28	-9	99%
week_01	-56.65	34	56.65	20	54	-14	-4.5	97%
week_13	-55.68	30	55.68	23	53	-7	-13.5	97%
week_03	-54.93	27	54.93	7	34	-20	-5.5	97%
week_07	-50.95	38	50.95	0	38	-38	-6	97%
week_10	-50.82	16	50.82	0	16	-16	-11	97%
week_15	-50.69	17	50.69	10	27	-7	-7	97%
week_05	-46.10	26	46.10	20	46	-6	-7	97%
week_03	-44.78	36	44.78	17	53	-19	-6.5	96%
week_17	-43.82	28	43.82	6	34	-22	-7	95%
week_14	-43.73	26	43.73	3	29	-23	-3.5	95%
week_03	-42.27	24	42.27	0	24	-24	-6.5	94%
week_15	-42.04	35	42.04	31	66	-4	-3	94%
week_01	-40.68	24	40.68	20	44	-4	-10	94%
week_07	-40.00	46	40.00	34	80	-12	-6.5	93%
week_06	-38.50	9	38.50	13	22	4	-14	92%
week_04	-38.45	27	38.45	16	43	-11	-9.5	92%
week_09	-38.43	28	38.43	38	66	10	-9.5	92%
week_08	-38.29	31	38.29	10	41	-21	-3.5	92%
week_13	-37.88	44	37.88	13	57	-31	-6	92%
week_11	-37.28	24	37.28	20	44	-4	-3.5	90%
week_06	-37.14	28	37.14	21	49	-7	-3	90%
week_16	-36.57	17	36.57	0	17	-17	-7	84%
week_05	-36.27	28	36.27	20	48	-8	-11	88%
week_07	-34.98	35	34.98	7	42	-28	-15.5	86%
week_02	-34.78	27	34.78	13	40	-14	-10	86%
week_13	-34.68	19	34.68	13	32	-6	-3.5	86%
week_15	-34.50	16	34.50	13	29	-3	-14	86%
week_07	-34.12	37	34.12	7	44	-30	-5.5	86%
week_16	-33.22	42	33.22	17	59	-25	2	88%
week_13	-29.67	33	29.67	30	63	-3	-8	85%
week_12	-29.65	27	29.65	17	44	-10	-3.5	85%
week_01	-28.88	34	28.88	21	55	-13	-5	84%
week_05	-28.79	31	28.79	9	40	-22	-3.5	83%
week_11	-28.54	21	28.54	13	34	-8	-9	85%
week_04	-28.32	23	28.32	20	43	-3	-6.5	84%
week_17	-27.93	7	27.93	30	37	23	8	80%
week_03	-27.54	23	27.54	3	26	-20	-2.5	83%
week_07	-26.28	27	26.28	17	44	-10	-9	85%
week_14	-25.13	21	25.13	14	35	-7	-4	86%
week_14	-24.79	26	24.79	23	49	-3	-10	79%
week_16	-23.66	30	23.66	36	66	6	-8.5	79%
week_16	-23.36	27	23.36	20	47	-7	2	79%
week_11	-22.96	17	22.96	20	37	3	-8.5	78%
week_17	-22.93	20	22.93	10	30	-10	-3	78%
week_01	-22.63	38	22.63	10	48	-28	-2.5	78%
week_11	-20.58	24	20.58	27	51	3	-11.5	76%
week_13	-20.57	34	20.57	7	41	-27	-4	76%
week_14	-20.57	34	20.57	13	47	-21	-2.5	76%
week_15	-20.01	31	20.01	24	55	-7	-14	74%
week_13	-19.96	21	19.96	22	43	1	-5	73%
week_06	-19.73	27	19.73	3	30	-24	3	71%
week_11	-19.71	32	19.71	3	35	-29	-6	71%
week_14	-19.63	6	19.63	13	19	7	-10	71%
week_03	-19.59	31	19.59	10	41	-21	3	71%
week_09	-19.13	21	19.13	20	41	-1	4.5	71%
week_13	-19.06	18	19.06	23	41	5	-1.5	68%
week_02	-18.08	27	18.08	23	50	-4	-3	63%
week_14	-17.49	45	17.49	38	83	-7	-1	72%
week_17	-17.24	10	17.24	23	33	13	10	71%
week_15	-17.09	45	17.09	12	57	-33	-3	68%
week_17	-16.24	33	16.24	7	40	-26	3	66%
week_15	-16.17	7	16.17	26	33	19	-9	68%
week_10	-15.32	17	15.32	27	44	10	-3.5	53%
week_17	-15.19	30	15.19	24	54	-6	-3	50%
week_15	-15.15	36	15.15	37	73	1	2.5	50%
week_09	-14.91	41	14.91	21	62	-20	3	56%
week_13	-14.77	17	14.77	30	47	13	-3	56%
week_09	-13.96	7	13.96	17	24	10	-3	62%
week_07	-13.68	17	13.68	27	44	10	6	63%
week_04	-13.54	28	13.54	38	66	10	5.5	60%
week_06	-13.30	28	13.30	17	45	-11	3.5	53%
week_04	-13.24	17	13.24	37	54	20	-3.5	48%
week_02	-13.10	31	13.10	17	48	-14	3	53%
week_02	-11.66	34	11.66	31	65	-3	7	31%
week_14	-11.49	20	11.49	17	37	-3	3.5	37%
week_05	-11.29	17	11.29	20	37	3	-3	45%
week_17	-11.12	37	11.12	23	60	-14	-4.5	50%
week_10	-11.04	16	11.04	10	26	-6	2.5	50%
week_02	-10.76	9	10.76	16	25	7	-3.5	31%
week_17	-10.53	17	10.53	13	30	-4	-6	31%
week_02	-9.98	14	9.98	17	31	3	-3	41%
week_12	-9.85	14	9.85	31	45	17	-3.5	41%
week_16	-9.78	20	9.78	23	43	3	3	41%
week_12	-9.63	35	9.63	27	62	-8	-3	37%
week_05	-9.19	27	9.19	31	58	4	-3	53%
week_13	-8.01	17	8.01	20	37	3	-1	58%
week_01	-7.65	12	7.65	7	19	-5	5	60%
week_05	-7.37	45	7.37	10	55	-35	1	62%
week_17	-6.83	27	6.83	34	61	7	7.5	71%
week_03	-6.18	14	6.18	19	33	5	-6	65%
week_05	-5.96	21	5.96	28	49	7	6	65%
week_14	-5.93	14	5.93	10	24	-4	2	65%
week_17	-5.77	0	5.77	24	24	24	3	65%
week_12	-5.70	17	5.70	20	37	3	2	60%
week_17	-5.44	17	5.44	23	40	6	2	58%
week_04	-5.19	10	5.19	17	27	7	-3	48%
week_03	-4.83	25	4.83	19	44	-6	-2.5	41%
week_02	-4.22	48	4.22	22	70	-26	-2.5	41%
week_03	-4.18	20	4.18	23	43	3	-3.5	45%
week_14	-4.07	9	4.07	24	33	15	-4	34%
week_13	-3.43	24	3.43	31	55	7	-1.5	37%
week_14	-2.47	16	2.47	10	26	-6	-2.5	48%
week_10	-2.13	19	2.13	28	47	9	-1	48%
week_10	-1.87	34	1.87	35	69	1	1.5	45%
week_11	-1.47	37	1.47	38	75	1	3	56%
week_04	-1.47	23	1.47	30	53	7	5	56%
week_15	-0.95	41	0.95	34	75	-7	3	65%
week_12	-0.57	6	0.57	26	32	20	-4.5	63%
week_11	-0.44	17	0.44	15	32	-2	-1.5	58%
week_08	0.26	34	-0.26	21	55	-13	10	53%
week_05	1.02	0	-1.02	41	41	41	2	28%
week_15	1.29	10	-1.29	7	17	-3	7	25%
week_15	1.47	24	-1.47	27	51	3	4.5	25%
week_05	1.52	6	-1.52	3	9	-3	5.5	24%
week_04	1.92	21	-1.92	27	48	6	2	20%
week_02	2.13	20	-2.13	28	48	8	5.5	24%
week_10	2.18	23	-2.18	31	54	8	1.5	22%
week_09	2.52	28	-2.52	10	38	-18	-3	27%
week_11	2.53	31	-2.53	34	65	3	7	27%
week_08	3.00	38	-3.00	26	64	-12	3	15%
week_12	3.05	17	-3.05	38	55	21	1.5	19%
week_12	3.42	6	-3.42	17	23	11	3.5	14%
week_01	3.61	24	-3.61	7	31	-17	4.5	15%
week_09	3.64	34	-3.64	27	61	-7	4	15%
week_06	3.91	31	-3.91	33	64	2	3	13%
week_11	3.92	15	-3.92	18	33	3	8.5	13%
week_16	4.65	41	-4.65	9	50	-32	8.5	20%
week_10	4.82	6	-4.82	10	16	4	3	24%
week_02	4.86	31	-4.86	26	57	-5	1	22%
week_07	4.88	24	-4.88	17	41	-7	8	22%
week_09	4.96	17	-4.96	20	37	3	8.5	21%
week_17	5.11	0	-5.11	37	37	37	10	25%
week_10	5.13	18	-5.13	12	30	-6	6.5	25%
week_02	5.18	20	-5.18	33	53	13	4	27%
week_13	5.37	14	-5.37	27	41	13	4	21%
week_01	5.57	20	-5.57	16	36	-4	4.5	19%
week_07	5.80	10	-5.80	45	55	35	-2	16%
week_07	5.95	21	-5.95	37	58	16	5	15%
week_09	6.40	21	-6.40	24	45	3	7	11%
week_01	6.79	10	-6.79	13	23	3	6.5	14%
week_08	7.39	13	-7.39	30	43	17	3	9%
week_16	7.51	9	-7.51	23	32	14	3	11%
week_02	7.65	33	-7.65	31	64	-2	3	10%
week_03	7.73	17	-7.73	24	41	7	1	9%
week_01	7.90	7	-7.90	19	26	12	4	6%
week_09	7.93	20	-7.93	32	52	12	10	6%
week_02	8.01	10	-8.01	23	33	13	1	6%
week_03	8.08	7	-8.08	21	28	14	8.5	4%
week_04	8.37	13	-8.37	16	29	3	9	4%
week_12	9.03	3	-9.03	20	23	17	3	1%
week_08	9.19	17	-9.19	40	57	23	-1	0%
week_08	9.37	7	-9.37	30	37	23	3.5	0%
week_14	9.42	16	-9.42	28	44	12	6.5	0%
week_06	9.53	14	-9.53	6	20	-8	6.5	1%
week_10	9.56	7	-9.56	17	24	10	-3	1%
week_06	9.62	14	-9.62	21	35	7	3.5	4%
week_08	9.65	6	-9.65	30	36	24	13.5	6%
week_12	9.78	17	-9.78	20	37	3	8	4%
week_09	9.84	20	-9.84	16	36	-4	3	4%
week_04	9.85	10	-9.85	38	48	28	1.5	4%
week_07	10.03	21	-10.03	24	45	3	3	8%
week_11	10.76	14	-10.76	31	45	17	11	9%
week_16	10.96	27	-10.96	30	57	3	7	12%
week_02	11.04	13	-11.04	10	23	-3	1.5	14%
week_04	11.12	24	-11.12	48	72	24	9.5	16%
week_10	11.32	17	-11.32	41	58	24	7.5	13%
week_17	11.51	7	-11.51	44	51	37	8	18%
week_11	11.66	20	-11.66	17	37	-3	3.5	24%
week_03	12.06	10	-12.06	26	36	16	4.5	31%
week_10	12.08	20	-12.08	31	51	11	8.5	31%
week_05	12.43	17	-12.43	20	37	3	5.5	37%
week_06	12.58	27	-12.58	48	75	21	3	37%
week_06	13.13	34	-13.13	23	57	-11	3.5	48%
week_11	13.15	24	-13.15	17	41	-7	3.5	48%
week_16	13.25	29	-13.25	15	44	-14	3	56%
week_04	13.82	10	-13.82	24	34	14	7.5	37%
week_05	13.96	17	-13.96	14	31	-3	9	31%
week_15	14.06	24	-14.06	17	41	-7	7.5	34%
week_14	14.18	10	-14.18	20	30	10	12.5	41%
week_09	14.56	17	-14.56	31	48	14	9	41%
week_02	14.71	7	-14.71	9	16	2	10	37%
week_08	14.89	17	-14.89	10	27	-7	4	34%
week_08	14.99	14	-14.99	18	32	4	13.5	31%
week_10	15.03	23	-15.03	25	48	2	10	34%
week_08	15.11	27	-15.11	35	62	8	12	28%
week_06	15.44	20	-15.44	23	43	3	9.5	31%
week_12	15.45	7	-15.45	16	23	9	12	31%
week_07	15.62	20	-15.62	9	29	-11	7	29%
week_16	15.94	6	-15.94	20	26	14	14	29%
week_16	16.40	10	-16.40	17	27	7	13	34%
week_01	16.46	0	-16.46	28	28	28	7	34%
week_15	16.52	13	-16.52	27	40	14	7.5	31%
week_13	16.62	17	-16.62	27	44	10	6	41%
week_13	16.92	13	-16.92	23	36	10	13.5	37%
week_01	17.09	17	-17.09	23	40	6	6	34%
week_09	17.24	20	-17.24	30	50	10	13	41%
week_15	17.66	24	-17.66	7	31	-17	6.5	58%
week_15	17.72	24	-17.72	27	51	3	7	62%
week_16	17.75	3	-17.75	31	34	28	8	60%
week_14	17.86	10	-17.86	30	40	20	6	58%
week_14	18.04	7	-18.04	34	41	27	7	58%
week_06	18.49	0	-18.49	59	59	59	9	53%
week_08	18.76	17	-18.76	38	55	21	9.5	60%
week_03	18.84	24	-18.84	27	51	3	7	58%
week_06	19.63	14	-19.63	27	41	13	14	74%
week_13	19.65	9	-19.65	17	26	8	9	73%
week_08	19.75	30	-19.75	25	55	-5	3.5	75%
week_15	19.75	7	-19.75	31	38	24	11	76%
week_09	19.96	17	-19.96	27	44	10	10.5	76%
week_02	20.03	6	-20.03	27	33	21	3	75%
week_11	20.31	24	-20.31	30	54	6	6	76%
week_11	20.51	6	-20.51	7	13	1	10.5	78%
week_13	20.80	6	-20.80	16	22	10	3.5	78%
week_03	21.80	13	-21.80	23	36	10	5.5	80%
week_14	22.84	7	-22.84	47	54	40	14	83%
week_12	22.93	17	-22.93	20	37	3	12.5	83%
week_04	23.00	17	-23.00	34	51	17	10.5	83%
week_12	23.66	10	-23.66	36	46	26	10	83%
week_01	24.01	12	-24.01	14	26	2	6	84%
week_01	25.13	15	-25.13	21	36	6	5	86%
week_16	25.89	7	-25.89	35	42	28	9	88%
week_12	26.28	24	-26.28	27	51	3	10	89%
week_11	26.85	9	-26.85	35	44	26	11	91%
week_16	28.32	10	-28.32	48	58	38	13.5	91%
week_17	28.46	20	-28.46	23	43	3	3	89%
week_16	28.54	10	-28.54	31	41	21	16	89%
week_10	28.79	24	-28.79	22	46	-2	6.5	89%
week_05	29.31	7	-29.31	44	51	37	15	89%
week_03	29.40	3	-29.40	34	37	31	13.5	88%
week_01	29.81	24	-29.81	25	49	1	13.5	89%
week_01	30.36	24	-30.36	38	62	14	13	90%
week_14	30.87	3	-30.87	48	51	45	14	91%
week_02	31.33	31	-31.33	24	55	-7	7.5	93%
week_03	31.94	14	-31.94	34	48	20	7.5	95%
week_03	32.40	31	-32.40	24	55	-7	4.5	95%
week_12	34.12	14	-34.12	43	57	29	13.5	95%
week_05	34.65	14	-34.65	33	47	19	15.5	95%
week_06	34.68	16	-34.68	13	29	-3	9.5	95%
week_10	34.78	10	-34.78	27	37	17	17	95%
week_01	35.85	27	-35.85	45	72	18	14	95%
week_06	36.25	0	-36.25	26	26	26	14	95%
week_17	37.88	44	-37.88	24	68	-20	10	97%
week_08	40.68	16	-40.68	24	40	8	16.5	99%
week_04	43.82	0	-43.82	35	35	35	9.5	99%
week_13	46.39	27	-46.39	24	51	-3	15	99%
week_15	48.91	20	-48.91	19	39	-1	14	99%
week_04	54.56	6	-54.56	29	35	23	8	99%
week_12	57.13	7	-57.13	24	31	17	13.5	99%
week_16	63.98	20	-63.98	17	37	-3	14	99%