1. 11-29-12 06:11 PM #36
    possum11
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    the square side would be determined by the number of bettors on one side not the amount of money on one side, correct? sports insights is showing 56% of the bets on the saints, making that the square side. but if the money is really is really that far apart i don't understand why the line hasn't moved more towards ATL -4 or -4.5
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  2. 11-29-12 06:15 PM #37
    Dexter
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    Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
    You heard it here first. Atlanta will steamroll the sorry-ass Saints tonight. New Orleans is done, cooked.

    So many squares taking the Saints because they are a desperate team and they "need" this win. Face it guys, they are not a good team. The defense is atrocious and the offense lacks some of the firepower it had last season. I can look down their schedule and say they have 2 quality wins this season. Sunday was their big chance to really get themselves back into contention and they came up short on their home field. Now they head to Atlanta in a major revenge game and I look for a performance from the Falcons much like the one the Saints put on them last year on Monday Night Football.

    Everything I see from the line indicates that Atlanta wins this game big. Falcons are -3 1H at the greek with the Saints being juiced heavily indicating to me that they will collect on the juice as Atlanta jumps out to a big lead early. Also at the Greek, Falcons -7.5 is a mere +165 and -10.5 is only +230.

    The Falcons will bury the Saints tonight and put them out of their misery.

    Falcons -3.5 -110 for 10 units
    hope you're right....i need to get goin already in the nfl.
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  3. 11-29-12 06:19 PM #38
    Dexter
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER View Post
    New Orleans$85,785

    Atlanta$226,670

    ATL looks to be the Square side according to beta consensus................
    interesting - i never knew that $$$ on a play equated to "square/sharp" labels....

    were you being serious pauly? i know you joke a lot...
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  4. 11-29-12 06:20 PM #39
    MakeitRain
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    I love that most of you are saying the falcons. Took Saints +4 for 3 units.
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  5. 11-29-12 06:20 PM #40
    PAULYPOKER
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER View Post
    New Orleans$85,785

    Atlanta$226,670

    ATL looks to be the Square side according to beta consensus................


    Quote Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER View Post
    Consensus Update

    New Orleans$97,094
    Atlanta$252,867
    Update as of 7:18PM
    New Orleans$127,400
    Atlanta$287,277
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  6. 11-29-12 06:23 PM #41
    Big Bear
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    So i guess sharp money on the dirty birds
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  7. 11-29-12 06:24 PM #42
    PAULYPOKER
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dexter View Post

    interesting - i never knew that $$$ on a play equated to "square/sharp" labels....

    were you being serious pauly? i know you joke a lot...
    A Square side is the side that is enticed or manipulated by a tasty line which oddsmakers provide.............
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  8. 11-29-12 06:29 PM #43
    paco
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    Gl twizz
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  9. 11-29-12 06:30 PM #44
    t-wizzle
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    Quote Originally Posted by paco View Post
    Gl twizz

    Thanks paco.
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  10. 11-29-12 06:34 PM #45
    PAULYPOKER
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dexter View Post

    interesting - i never knew that $$$ on a play equated to "square/sharp" labels....

    were you being serious pauly? i know you joke a lot...
    For instance if you were a bookmaker and you had one sided or 70% action on the ATS of-3.5

    What would you do to even the action out?

    A.move the line a half point until the action evens

    b.leave it where it is and hope it evens out

    c.leave it where it is because you the book are betting on the underdog to cover
    Last edited by PAULYPOKER; 11-29-12 at 07:21 PM.
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  11. 11-29-12 06:37 PM #46
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER View Post
    Update as of 7:18PM
    New Orleans$127,400
    Atlanta$287,277
    Are these figures including just the spread? Or the ML too?
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  12. 11-29-12 06:39 PM #47
    PAULYPOKER
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post

    Are these figures including just the spread? Or the ML too?
    Spread.............
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  13. 11-29-12 06:46 PM #48
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER View Post
    Spread.............
    Probably have to correct it a bit to account for those opting for -3 (-135) instead of -3.5 (-110), but still very one-sided. And it certainly reinforces that the public betting % numbers that are listed everywhere do not tell the whole story. Money is what counts, not number of bets.
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  14. 11-29-12 06:57 PM #49
    coop
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    where are these dollar amounts from...?
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  15. 11-29-12 07:13 PM #50
    PAULYPOKER
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    Quote Originally Posted by coop View Post
    where are these dollar amounts from...?
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/consensus/
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  16. 11-29-12 07:14 PM #51
    Lee Jones
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    Saints ML
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  17. 11-29-12 07:15 PM #52
    PAULYPOKER
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    Looks like the books are calling for a 3 point ATL win....................
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  18. 11-29-12 07:16 PM #53
    Dexter
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER View Post
    A Square side is the side that is enticed or manipulated by a tasty line which oddsmakers provide.............
    thank you for that lesson paulypoker...
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  19. 11-29-12 07:16 PM #54
    paco
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    None of that matters cuz saints are lock of the year
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  20. 11-29-12 07:18 PM #55
    Speedy88
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    Good luck Wizzle. Your right on in your analysis. Saints are crap. Only reason why the Saints are still in the playoff discussion is because Brees covers up so many of the Saints' flaws. They can't stop anyone on defense, and they still struggle to run the ball.

    Agreed, if NO was going to make any type of playoff push, they needed to beat SF at home. They're pretty much dead, and if they lose tonight, put a fork in them.
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  21. 11-29-12 07:18 PM #56
    double
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    Quote Originally Posted by paco View Post
    None of that matters cuz saints are lock of the year
    Surely Paco is on the Falcons. This confirms it.
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  22. 11-29-12 07:19 PM #57
    PAULYPOKER
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    Quote Originally Posted by paco View Post
    None of that matters cuz saints are lock of the year
    @+3.5 that is.....................
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  23. 11-29-12 07:19 PM #58
    t-wizzle
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    Quote Originally Posted by Speedy88 View Post
    Good luck Wizzle. Your right on in your analysis. Saints are crap. Only reason why the Saints are still in the playoff discussion is because Brees covers up so many of the Saints' flaws. They can't stop anyone on defense, and they still struggle to run the ball.

    Agreed, if NO was going to make any type of playoff push, they needed to beat SF at home. They're pretty much dead, and if they lose tonight, put a fork in them.
    Thanks Speedy. Get the fork ready.
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  24. 11-29-12 07:22 PM #59
    Dexter
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER View Post
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/consensus/
    how did you set that up on your live odds page that it gives you $$ wagered?
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  25. 11-29-12 07:28 PM #60
    t-wizzle
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dexter View Post
    how did you set that up on your live odds page that it gives you $$ wagered?
    Those #'s are prob from 5Dimes. That's interesting, I've never seen that. Still probably won't use it, it just kinda complicates things I think.
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  26. 11-29-12 07:31 PM #61
    PAULYPOKER
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dexter View Post

    how did you set that up on your live odds page that it gives you $$ wagered?
    You can't unless you have them opened side by side in separate windows..............
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  27. 11-29-12 07:35 PM #62
    t-wizzle
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    Forgot to mention the fact that Saints are coming off a game against the Niners in which they were physically beat up. Now on a short week they have to play a huge game. New Orleans looks beat.
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  28. 11-29-12 07:36 PM #63
    Bdolan33
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    Saints are up to +300 on live betting, wtf is going on
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  29. 11-29-12 07:42 PM #64
    t-wizzle
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    Keep throwin picks Brees.
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  30. 11-29-12 07:43 PM #65
    Parligod
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    I dropped on Saints ML just because I think they have a shot at winning here. They match up well vs. Falcons and excepting last week they're still playing much more composed than they started out this season. I also give some leeway given the 49ers are the best team right now imo. At this writing Brees just threw his 1st interception which is bad for me, so we'll see.
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  31. 11-29-12 07:51 PM #66
    AnthonyColes
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    Falcons are over rated. When you guys gonna learn.
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  32. 11-29-12 07:57 PM #67
    paco
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    Under is free money.
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  33. 11-29-12 08:10 PM #68
    t-wizzle
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    Keep it going Atlanta.
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  34. 11-29-12 08:10 PM #69
    You mad bro
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    Quote Originally Posted by paco View Post
    Under is free money.
    Nice call on te eagles monday night
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  35. 11-29-12 08:10 PM #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by AnthonyColes View Post
    Falcons are over rated. When you guys gonna learn.
    Raping the saints tonight
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