[dj_destroyer]

If you want to make sports betting easier and more fun, then follow these simple guidelines that will help you focus your resources and hopefully win you more in the long run.

1. Don't bet the favourite. Yes, favourites win often but so do the dogs. By limiting yourself to the dogs only, you're challenging yourself to make a difficult pick. This will result in less picks over time, reducing the house edge applied to yourself. Furthermore, most +EV situations come in on less-favourable 'dog' teams so this will hopefully help you discover more.

2. Don't bet the public team. There are certain teams that you should simply NEVER bet because of their perceived value. If the public is in love with a team, there are corresponding bets being made. This skews the line and puts the opposite team in valuable territory.

3. Don't bet props, alternate lines, parlays, teasers, etc. Until you are making money and able to fully utilize these tools, stay away from them. They are sucker bets for 99% of people and will simply confuse you in the long run. The juice is way too high anyways.

4. Don't take a stale line. Before you make any bet, check Covers' "Line Moves" to make sure you're getting the best possible number. This means, if the number was at anytime better than the number you have, don't bet it. This will also help train you in line movement analysis. This will chop a lot of your games out, especially if you're betting close to game time as the line has likely experienced some movement by then. A lot of people may disagree with this but let me ask you this: if someone got a product yesterday for $5; do you really want to pay $10 for the same product today? Even if you know the product is going up to $15 tomorrow, I'm the kind of the guy that's sour he didn't get in at $5 and may scoff at $10 in spite. Call it stupid or ignorant, but it will limit your plays which is a good thing for anybody. Also, if you never take a stale line and always predict the movement correctly then you'll always have the best number... then you're really #winning.

5. Bankroll management. Use percentages so your bets vary as your bankroll does. Anywhere from 1 to 5 percent is fine. Always vary your wager size by the edge you have on that game and not anything independent that has happened in the past (like losing your last few bets). Never gamble anything you can't afford to lose. Max 3 bets a day. And be responsible, it is your own hard-earned money after all.


*Disclaimer*
I understand that there is a time to bet the favourite and there may be +EV situations on public teams or what have you; but from a general perspective, these are great guidelines for beginners and veterans alike who find themselves constantly losing money or making errant picks. Also, feel free to add in anything you like.

[tto827]

Number 1 is the only one I have to flat-out disagree with (unless you are referring to the ML, then I agree, new/bad bettors will not find value at -300, they just bet it because they think in cannot lose)

The rest are over-exaggerated but the right idea. Props have way too much juice if you don't know what you're doing. And for a rookie, if they truly followed 4 they would never make a bet, the chances of actually getting the best number are slim if you are not following it for days. Also you can definitely make more than 3 bets a day, in pro sports that may be a decent number, but in college sports there can be dozens of games where value can be found.

All in all a good starting point for people, hopefully it helps some people out.

[beermankirk]

Disagree with #3. Alot of props are only $50 max. but sometimes are so far off that they will flip from a +150 to a -150. I've been quite profitable at them. Also 2 team Wong teasers when used properly, to turn a 3 into 2.5 or a 7 into a 6.5, or going the other way, can be quite effective. That's why you see pinnacle and 5Dimes open a line a -9 +125, while other books have that line at -7 -110
.

[DrStale]

A nice list of things that are either common sense or just entirely wrong. Well done.

[mbs4]

Props are profits

[23Edler_Salo6]

You guys are clearly just reading what you want to read...

He is clearly saying that prop bets, parlays, teasers are poor plays for inexperienced players.

Until you are making money and able to fully utilize these tools, stay away from them.

So for those of you that are making money and understand when they're valuable...

but sometimes are so far off that they will flip from a +150 to a -150. I've been quite profitable at them

You just described exactly what he was inferring. You bet them because you understand how to use them, which is exactly his advice.

[tto827]

You guys are clearly just reading what you want to read...

He is clearly saying that prop bets, parlays, teasers are poor plays for inexperienced players.



So for those of you that are making money and understand when they're valuable...


[/COLOR]
You just described exactly what he was inferring. You bet them because you understand how to use them, which is exactly his advice.

Bet when you have an edge.. great fukkin advice. The problem is everyone thinks they have an edge, or they wouldn't make the bet.

[23Edler_Salo6]

Bet when you have an edge.. great fukkin advice. The problem is everyone thinks they have an edge, or they wouldn't make the bet.

I don't seem to recall that verbatim advice from his post. There we go again.

[byronbb]

1 is true generally in NFL but in NBA I don't think there is much of a difference unless the fav is huge public side.
2 generally agree especially in NFL/big soccer markets.
3 props are free money. I recommend to anyone who can bet at skybet to have a look at their nfl props. all dealt at -110
4 yes getting a good line is beyond important. A non-us better with a ton of outs can often bet into a market that is around 1% juice, even less.
5 BR management is very important. I would recommend 1% of one's net worth or kelly fraction if you have a brain.

[tto827]

I don't seem to recall that verbatim advice from his post. There we go again.

I got it from yours, not his. Just as much as others read what they want so did you.

"So for those of you that are making money and understand when they're valuable...


but sometimes are so far off that they will flip from a +150 to a -150. I've been quite profitable at them



You just described exactly what he was inferring. You bet them because you understand how to use them, which is exactly his advice."

Everyone thinks they are making a smart bet when they make it. The dumbest of dumb and the smartest of smart both think they understand how to use them. You have to give the idiot reasoning that he is wrong, not just tell him so, or he will not listen. Therefore rendering his post primarily useless.

[tto827]

1 is true generally in NFL but in NBA I don't think there is much of a difference unless the fav is huge public side.
2 generally agree especially in NFL/big soccer markets.
3 props are free money. I recommend to anyone who can bet at skybet to have a look at their nfl props. all dealt at -110
4 yes getting a good line is beyond important. A non-us better with a ton of outs can often bet into a market that is around 1% juice, even less.
5 BR management is very important. I would recommend 1% of one's net worth or kelly fraction if you have a brain.

You cannot be serious, I'm signing up there tomorrow, arbiters dream right there.

[23Edler_Salo6]

I got it from yours, not his. Just as much as others read what they want so did you.

"So for those of you that are making money and understand when they're valuable...


but sometimes are so far off that they will flip from a +150 to a -150. I've been quite profitable at them



You just described exactly what he was inferring. You bet them because you understand how to use them, which is exactly his advice."

Everyone thinks they are making a smart bet when they make it. The dumbest of dumb and the smartest of smart both think they understand how to use them. You have to give the idiot reasoning that he is wrong, not just tell him so, or he will not listen. Therefore rendering his post primarily useless.

Props are great if you understand when they're appropriate to play, which can be determined empirically to a degree. You cannot stop a dumb player from making dumb plays, true, but if someone has the capacity to learn, then this advice can easily trigger positive results in that respect - like comparing numbers across books, which is alluded to, and arriving at the knowledge that, for instance, Skybet is great for props.

[Inkwell77]

I disagree with point #4 as I'm sure many people do.

Beating the closing line is what matters. Not necessarily getting the best number. Beating the closing line is not easy, but I would say it is easier than being an originator and moving lines yourself.

[dj_destroyer]

When there's literally 5000+ betting opportunities a day on average, these guidelines help cut a lot of them out. With less distractions, you can focus your time on more favourable looks.

[PAULYPOKER]

sharps play favs and dogs

squares play all favs or all dogs

JJ Gold

[mrmarket]

1. You should be betting whatever line whose true probability (whether determined by the market price preferably or your own model in which the market should eventually moves towards) differs from the offered line enough to make it profitable I.E. beating the no vig line. This stands true for the large markets.

2. See point 1.

3. Small markets,props, correlated parlays/teasers, standard teasers,derivatives,pleasers and some alternate lines are precisely what small bettors should be playing since they aren't efficient. Even line shopping between sites can offer value if you know absolutely zero about calculating the true line of the prop.

4. See point #1.

5. BRM is for people with a positive expectation on their bets. I always am dumbfounded but the sheer number of posts on BRM from losing players. It doesn't matter what system you use if you don't have an edge. Everyone else should use a fractional system given personal risk tolerance.

[rkelly110]

Really the #1 rule should be, don't follow SBR front page cappers!!!!!!!

IDK about anyone else, I print out the odds from my book on most sports at 11am. You can learn a lot
from those printouts. I keep them for a year so I can go back and see what system might work.

Do home dogs win at a good rate? Do away dogs win one game out of 3? Does the ML fave of the day
over a certain odds win more often than not? There's a ton of information if you have records and have
the time to look them over.

You can make informed decisions by looking at the match ups in SBR's live odds section. Click on the
blue box next to the teams being played. I cap every game using that info.

[thetrinity]

i think number 1 is actually real good advice for new bettors. easier for them to find reasons to bet favorites for the most part.

[Sledge187]

great read!