Guy looks in mint condition, refreshed and anxious to get back in the ring. At -310, this is a steal. Make sure to add to all of your plays and empty every extra cent on him.
CC is a dead-man walking.
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11-16-12 03:56 PM #1
GSP is LOCK of the CENTURY material
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11-16-12 04:16 PM #2
You must have thousands and thousands on him then?
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11-16-12 04:34 PM #3
Dude he has all his betpoints on him. Pizzas for a year!
Originally Posted by Vaughany
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11-16-12 04:43 PM #4
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11-16-12 04:45 PM #5
Careful DJ.
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11-16-12 04:50 PM #6
Hes not even the best lock on this card. At the current odds GSP is a no play for me. Maybe even a sprinkle the other way.
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11-16-12 05:03 PM #7
After seeing him get ass whooped by Serra on his last loss it's hard to lay -300 or more on him coming off an injury. People are talking Silva superfight when these guys still have to survive 5 rounds. It seems like every time big favs come back the line is too high. Fedor was -400? when he started his losing streak at about the same age after long layover.
Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: nosniboR11
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11-16-12 05:18 PM #8
The odds look too sharp to find sufficient value.
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11-16-12 05:24 PM #9
Fighter's like Condit, Cerrone and the Korean Zombie tend to win as Underdogs.
Not a lock.
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11-16-12 05:59 PM #10
Coming off an injury and Condit is a smart fighter. I think fight will go the distance.
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11-16-12 06:49 PM #11
fighter's tend to lose against Georges St Pierre Originally Posted by GunShard
Nomination(s):This post was nominated 2 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: rastakolnikov, and Bill Dozer
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11-16-12 08:54 PM #12
Look at GSP's losses though.. They've been to old man Hughes and Matt the terrible Sera.
Tread lightly DJ!
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11-16-12 08:58 PM #13
I don't see GSP losing at all.
But why start a thread like this?
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11-16-12 09:13 PM #14
old man Hughes?? Hughes was 31 in that loss, and GSP's 3rd UFC fight. GSP is 31 now, is he considered an old man? Originally Posted by BIGDAY
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11-16-12 09:17 PM #15
Lol, just playing a little devils advocate. Originally Posted by THE_LOCKSMITH
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11-16-12 09:17 PM #16
Yea I really don't understand the logic. He has lost twice. Neither in a long time. 1 when he was 23 to the, then best WW of all time. The other was an off night before he fought anything like he does today. Originally Posted by THE_LOCKSMITH
Condit can try to play the point game again. Or he can try his flying knees. Neither is smart vs. GSP. People act like Condit is Paul Daley on the feet. He's far from it.
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11-16-12 09:22 PM #17
There's always been people defending the dogs vs. GSP but I've just been steadily stacking dough on the homer bet for the last couple of years. GSP is a world-class athlete with world-class training, Condit does not stand a chance at winning this fight.
GSP 50-45
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11-16-12 10:32 PM #18
Didn't GSP have his ACL torn?
Dunno - I'd play the dog in this fight only because, even if you spar a bunch, your 'trust' in your mortality comes into question. In the UFC, any bit of doubt likely can cause you to hesitate - which is enough to lose. No way I'd touch this match unless I was on Condit - who is a heluva fighter in his own right. i'm no UFC expert. I just don't see GSP being in top form and I don't see Condit being some tomato can.
Odds are kind of bleh - rather wait til late tomorrow before playin the dog... Think there might be some value there in waiting.
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11-16-12 10:35 PM #19
GSP is one of the most mentally fit fighters in the UFC. there are no "doubts" in his mind. other than Silva the guy is one the greatest of all times. Originally Posted by McBa1n
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11-16-12 10:53 PM #20
agree. GSP got a weak chin + he only got wrestling. I cant understand how he can win this fight. upset all written over it.
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11-16-12 11:15 PM #21
Glad I don't have PPV availability anymore or I'd unload on GSP.
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11-16-12 11:46 PM #22
I love watching everyone scramble frantically trying to pull a play out of their asses on what screams no-play. Too many variables to try and cap this like an average fight.
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11-16-12 11:50 PM #23
Carlos Condit is a dangerous guy on the feet but i believe he will be neutralized quite quickly he will get taken down at will and dominated on the ground, he will have his hands full just avoiding gsp's ground game.
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11-16-12 11:58 PM #24
this is the first time i think gsp might lose . almost 2 years out, he might come in the ring and shit his pants ,who knows what he will be like
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11-17-12 12:00 AM #25
If u wanna lay -310, lay that the fight starts round 3 at 5Dimes -310
Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: dj_destroyer
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11-17-12 12:38 AM #26
The only play on this fight is fight goes the distance. Condit will fight a typical Jackson's MMA point fight like he did with Diaz. GSP will be tentative with his knee and try to turn this into a wrestling match. Nick Ring has the best value on this card.
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11-17-12 02:17 AM #27
People don't understand... GSP is not like every other UFC fighter coming off an injury. He'll be 100%, I can guarantee you that.
So let me ask you, if GSP is 100% and the odds are -310/+270 -- who do you take?
It has to be GSP every time, all the time.
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11-17-12 02:55 AM #28
There's a theory about fighters that has not fight in the Octagon for more than a year tend to lose. Maybe this is a bogus theory.
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11-17-12 03:10 AM #29
Out of his last 16 fights in WEC and UFC Cerrone has only been the underdog twice, both times against Jamie Varner and he won one of those matches. He was even the favourite against Ben Henderson twice and Nate Diaz and lost all three. So not the best sample size to work from when surmising that Cerrone tends to win as an underdog! Originally Posted by GunShard
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11-17-12 04:29 AM #30
Ah ok. Originally Posted by Vaughany
I thought Cerrone was an Underdog against Charles Olivera, I saw most gamblers were on Olivera, who lost the fight.
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11-17-12 05:15 AM #31
Took Condit early at +300 which I saw great value in.
It's a gamble but it's hard not to give Condit a 30% chance with the uncertainty surrounding GSP with such a long layoff.
I have only bet against GSP once before, that was against Matt Serra fight #1, it's a sign?
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11-17-12 09:17 AM #32
The variable is GSP wins. Originally Posted by spargament
If you even played them straight and played him oh lets say the last 6 times you are up good money. You play ANderson the last oh 15 times....you are undefeated and up good money. Played Bones straight lets say the last 7 times...you are undefeated annd up good money.
The variable is he is one of the best in the game. Unlike other fighters you don't have to worry that he isn't 100%. If he wasn't....he wouldn't fight.
I have not played GSP many times. Most notably the Alves fight...where Alves was "dangerous" (yea right). The line was in the -200s somewhere. GSP dominated, just to leave you saying? How many times out of a 100 would Alves pull out a win? Not many. I always take into account that these are small gloves and things happen. But you can't cap that really.
Condit is a good fighter. But I haven't been overly impressed with the guy like some. I had Diaz winning the last one. He knocked out Dan Hardy and Stun Gun 2 blah fighters. He got his ass handed to him by a 20 year old kid, only for the kid to wilt at the very end. Split win over Ellenbeger. Split loss to Kampmann....None of these guys are GSP. And he tends to go to a decision with any of the better fighters he faces. Close decisions at that. Not even clear wins.
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11-17-12 09:21 AM #33
i don't know if he's the lock of the century, but there's no doubt there's value at -320.
another interesting variable on this card: mark bocek has never lost as the favorite and never won as an underdog in 11 ufc fights. (albeit he probably should have got the nod vs jim miller.)
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11-17-12 09:23 AM #34
I feel Condit wins. He's a tough fighter.
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11-17-12 12:05 PM #35
Anyone wanna give me Condit at +300 for 400 betpoints?
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