Originally Posted by
wantitall4moi
LMAO another math guy trying to explain their stupidity with more stupidity. So if a guy goes 280-220 over 10 years then you would still say they were a 52% capper 'long term'.No I would not say that, I would say there is a 29% chance that he is actually a losing gambler. If you have that record then good for you, you PROBABLY are going to win continuing in the future but it isn't guaranteed. Get a fukking clue. You guys think you know everything about math and then dont know how to use it properly. thats why math has no place in sports betting because for one 99% of you idiots dont know the right formulas let alone how to plug the numbers in correctly when you do. Ad hominem, nice ivy league pal.
You can use all the probability formulas you want to, it is still so much garbage.
wins and losses dont mean jack shit anyway. This system right now is 13-4, of those 13 wins you have a +120 dog, a +200 dog, a +180 (not even best number) dog, and a +160 dog (not best number there either). Then you have spread vigs with ranges from +105 to -108.
So factor in those dogs winning with MLs before you try and use your -110 formula guess work. i purposefully used your 28-22 so I could use -110 (50%) propositions since you didn't say anything about the kind of plays the hypothetical 50 play NFL player made. If you would like me calculate for you, using your individual plays, just ask me. it is very difficult to know what your actual rate of return is in this thread because you are very vague, you simply say ML. so in the future, please put the lines you get into your plays if you want my respect and assistance. if not, keep doing it your way.
So no matter what sort of math you want to use I can show it doesnt mean shit because youre not using math correctly. Because it is all based on theory. a -110 line isnt the same as a 52.3% chance. A -110/-110 game is 50% on both sides theoretically. Of course, if all games were exactly 50%, it would be impossible to make money. Even if you try and factor in a 'no vig' line it is still tainted because the lines arent predictions their put in place to get balanced action. So if a game is lined like tonights as say -450/380 that doesnt mean the 'no vig' line would be 415/415, or anything close to that. It what the books deem they will get action at. The fact it first opened at 360/314 shows that, as does the first click where it actually went to 335/295. Lines move due to action not due to probability. The market is honing in on the true probability. The collective mind of every sharp in the world is much smarter than you, and a more accurate method of predicting the outcome of an event. How many times do you fucktards have to hear that before it gets through your thick heads? classy and intelligent
Tonights game Houston has been as low as -335, and as high as -480, thats a big difference, does it mean their chances have increased? Not hardly they have the same chance to win as they always have, the odds dont mean jack shit, in terms of win probability anyway. So like you and your formula and trying to figure 'probability' based on spread math is just as useless. It means that if the ML moved from -335 to -480, it is likely that the market underestimated the likelihood of a Houston win early in the week. The market corrected for this by raising the line (due to more action on Houston).
I suspect at seasons end this system will be up 20 units or more. with a 'record' of around 60-42 or so, with about a third of those 'wins' dogs on the ML. Which would make the 60 a lot more than 60 in terms of weighted value. If a guy plays 50 games and theyre all ML dogs and he is 25-25 is he a winner or a loser? If he played 100 games and was 45-55 and all ML dogs plays how about then? Of course if you get a higher payout, the break even % changes. Being an Ivy Leaguer, I would've thought this would be below you to bring up into our conversation. If you expect to make me look like a fool using this insult, you've revealed more about your intelligence than you know.
You guys all get caught up in wins and losses and dont factor in odds or money. thats where you all fail. Unless its baseball where it slaps you in the face.