1. #1
    hels
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    Romney line is dropping consistently

    This morning on betfair the odds were as follows

    Romney 6/1
    Obama 1.2/1

    Romney's line has been steadily falling all day and the current lines are as follows

    Romney 4/1
    Obama 1.33/1

    There has been over 33 million traded on this market so these odds are about as true as you can find. Will update this thread throughout the day.

    Vote Romney

  2. #2
    ApricotSinner32
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    Vote for oscar the grouch

  3. #3
    Bluehorseshoe
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    I just voted for Virgil Goode.

  4. #4
    crustyme
    dont i look killer?
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    go all-in then and retire.


  5. #5
    LeahMichele
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    I am for Obama and I think he will win, but even so -500 seems way too high, even at -400 I think Romney is + EV even though i think he will lose.

    Just because the line is dropping, that doesnt mean he is going to win, it just means he has better than a 16% chance.

    If I was a Romney supporter, I will be less ecstatic that he went from +600 to +400, and more concerned that he is still +400 on election day.

    Anything can happen but a +400 is still a pretty big dog.
    Last edited by LeahMichele; 11-06-12 at 01:25 PM.

  6. #6
    hels
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    Line has not been very volatile and has moved either way this early afternoon. Currently:

    Romney 4/1
    Obama 1.32/1

  7. #7
    hels
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    Currently

    Romney 3.85/1
    Obama 1.35/1

  8. #8
    Let's Go Rangers
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    The true line should be about 2-1 Obama


    He is the incumbent, although on popular, he still is the incompetent

  9. #9
    d2bets
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    In terms of pinnacle, it has simple bounced up and down between +300 to +350. Nothing significant either way today....yet.

  10. #10
    CallMeChip
    Damn good stuff, sir...
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    That's funny Intrade has a proven track record of calling elections and Romney took a nose dive today. And Intrade is in the 100's of millions, not 33 lol. Election is already over, Romney never had a chance.

  11. #11
    Cuse0323
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    Obama has it in the bag really, but hopefully the young kids stayed home.

  12. #12
    5mike5
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    i just hammered obama -320



    rising again now

  13. #13
    Kindred
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    Bush's contract was dropping all day election day in 2004...and he won

  14. #14
    Kindred
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    Quote Originally Posted by CallMeChip View Post
    That's funny Intrade has a proven track record of calling elections and Romney took a nose dive today. And Intrade is in the 100's of millions, not 33 lol. Election is already over, Romney never had a chance.
    Their record on election day sucks..go look at 2004 election day. Kerry looked like a lock late in the day and he LOST

  15. #15
    hels
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    So how much has been traded on InTrade? All I've done is given a true number which is now over 36 million.

    Currently:

    Romney 4.2/1
    Obama 1.31/1

  16. #16
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kindred View Post
    Bush's contract was dropping all day election day in 2004...and he won
    Actually what happened was Bush entered the day as a favorite but then plummeted only following the release of exit polls which seemed to favor Kerry. Exit polls haven't come out yet so no parallels could possibly be drawn yet. But I almost wouldn't be surprised if exit polls seem to favor Romney (ala Kerry in '04) only to find out those are wrong and Obama won. Maybe there's something about exit polls that understate the incumbent's vote.

  17. #17
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kindred View Post
    Their record on election day sucks..go look at 2004 election day. Kerry looked like a lock late in the day and he LOST
    Again, that was only AFTER the release of exit polls. Until exit polls came out Bush was heavily favored (just as Obama is now).

  18. #18
    jflightwright
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    Heres the update as of 4:25pm EST

    Name:  Screen Shot 2012-11-06 at 1.24.31 PM.jpg
Views: 333
Size:  18.9 KB

  19. #19
    mikey207
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    Grabbed Obama to win 100 at -335 at 5Dimes

  20. #20
    d2bets
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    Fact is line movement has been eerily quiet so far today. Expect that all to change after 5pm est and then it should be active the rest of the night.

  21. #21
    hels
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Fact is line movement has been eerily quiet so far today. Expect that all to change after 5pm est and then it should be active the rest of the night.
    From a value standpoint I think if you can get :

    Romney 5/1 and/or;
    Obama 1.5/1

    One should definitely make a play.

  22. #22
    yisman
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    This is the first election I've followed via the markets. It's interesting.

  23. #23
    5mike5
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    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post
    This is the first election I've followed via the markets. It's interesting.
    me too and i agree

    very interesting

  24. #24
    tblues2005
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    I agree things are going to change drastically after 6pm.

  25. #25
    Big Bear
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    The problem is every black man who votes is going
    to vote Obama bc they want a brotha in the white house
    and there are also some white people who vote for him as
    well.

    If Democrats were smart they would make
    sure they always have a black man running an they would never
    lose.

    Also the republicans need to find a guy with some personality
    Romney comes across as a grumpy old man

  26. #26
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    The problem is every black man who votes is going
    to vote Obama bc they want a brotha in the white house
    and there are also some white people who vote for him as
    well.

    If Democrats were smart they would make
    sure they always have a black man running an they would never
    lose.


    Also the republicans need to find a guy with some personality
    Romney comes across as a grumpy old man
    How did Kerry and Clinton do among black voters?

  27. #27
    coop
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    "Obama is going to have the lead until 6 oclock when all the Romney supporters get off of work"

    seen that joke like 100 times today

  28. #28
    The Giant
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    I just heard black people are out voting in record droves.

    RIP Romney.

  29. #29
    5mike5
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    OBAMA jumped to -370 (5d)

  30. #30
    nosniboR11
    fu
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    I just heard black people are out voting in record droves.

    RIP Romney.

    your statement proves that blacks are the most racist idiots on the planet

    and get ready for president romney

  31. #31
    5mike5
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    -380 now

  32. #32
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Like Romney at +295 to pull it off. Good value in what may be a razor close election.

  33. #33
    hels
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    Line for Obama is now dropping

    Rominator 4.7/1
    Nobama 1.26/1

  34. #34
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Romney now +315 at 5D.

  35. #35
    5mike5
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    love it...got a steal -320 20 min ago

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