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Ferrer +125 against Del Potro in London
Ferrer is on fire and I don't see how that's gonna end here against Del Potro. Fittest player on tour and I doubt he's fatigued. He's in a rhythm. I'm watching the reruns of earlier matches now and the courts are playing slower than I expected. Del Potro is not gonna like this slower surface and it'll most definitely favor the pitt bull Ferrer.
$200 on it.
Good call Goat I agree 100%
Getting + money with Ferrer here seems like a steal.
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Alot of talk about Ferrer having ruined his chances at this tourney by winning Paris Masters but if anyone can deal with so much tennis and so little break it's the ultra fit tennis hustler from Spain. He leads H2H against Del Potro 5-2 and has won the last 3 contests, including 2 this year, both in straight sets and both as a dog. Ferrer won 2 Inddor tournaments in a row so clearly he is in the better form. Only negative is possible fatigue both physical and mental and once again it is worth noting that Ferrer is a warrior, both physically and mentally. In the past Del boy has tried to use his power game to hit right through Ferrer without imagination and Ferrer has been able to adapt and grind Del Potro down. Even Nadal needs a strategy when playing Ferrer on clay, you have to plan and think, his Tennis IQ is so high. Ferrer's confidence is up and he has nothing to lose as no-one is expecting much from him here, and also the court is slow enough to suit Ferrer more than Del Potro
Neither meeting though has a ton of relevancy here IMO. One was on grass @ Wimbledon. The Miami meeting maybe has a little relevancy because of the surface, I just think Del Potro is playing better right now than at any point in the year and appears healthier too. Do agree if anyone is going to avoid fatigue, it's Ferrer - but it is tough to like someone at the end of the season who has played so much lately without much of a break. If this was about two-three months earlier, I wouldn't be nearly as concerned with Ferrer being worn out. November though with a full season behind him, I would be.
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I support Ferrer's backers, I doubt he will be more worn out as his competitor today. Last year was similar picture. He had lots of tennis before Finals and guess what - he came out firing on all cylinders in London. Somehow Fed managed to stop him in semis. I would expect him to win couple of matches this year as well. And Potro is included in one of those matches.
Ferrer had a lot more rest last year coming in than this year. His heavy tournaments were early in October and then he got a nice break until Valencia and made the semis and quarters in Valencia-Paris vs. Final-Final this year. Remember his first two matches were against Murray who had a hamstring/groin injury that forced him to pull out after the Ferrer match + a well under 100% Djokovic. His road is no where near that easy with Del Potro and Federer in this group at near full power.
I'll give the first five people up to 20 [risking] points on Ferrer @ +130. So risking 20 to Win 26. 5Dimes rules. Once a set is complete, action stands.
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 11-06-12 at 09:46 AM.
I really see Del Potro winning this. Too much tennis for ferrer no matter who you are you get tired after that much. Del Po is a strong player and playing great this year including recently beating Federer in the Basel Final.
Delpo -1.5 games -105, best value IMO. Ferrer loked OK vs the big Polish man in the finals there. If Jano asnt gased, I think he could have won. Ferrer has been bang on the past few weeks, but he looked off to me at the end of last tourney. I think with the little exta rest Delpo had, he will be able to chase Ferrer's shot down. Wouldnt be suprised if Delpo won in straight sets. If Delpo is on, theres no way Ferrer will chase down his forehand shots.
Bol
Last edited by matt1216; 11-06-12 at 10:22 AM.
I'll take you up on that and do it for 20, 40 if I can. Maybe it'll keep me from making a bet on it.Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36
Since no one else has jumped in yet, I'll take 40 to win 52 for ya. Still take up to another 60 pts of action.
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 11-06-12 at 11:32 AM.
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Alright sounds good, I'll send over 40 now since I'll probably end up sleeping all day.
I'm in EP
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So, 20 to get back 46 if Ferrer wins? If so, I'm in.
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20 for 26. Do the math. +130. Every ten you risk is to win 13.
yeah.. 20-26.. I can't do math today.. what do you think about -1.5 ep?? on delpo spread
If it's straight sets, obviously that's going to cover - but if Ferrer does fight for a set makes it iffy. Delpo is only -135 @ 5D right now. I'd just roll with the money line if you like DP.
any last minute thoughts or news before the match starts guys?
Right behind you on this Goat.
I'm on Delpo for a dime here. Got a shit number from my shit book, but it's the right play. Ferrer is worn down here so you are asking him to make that up with talent and he cannot against Delpo in this form.
All my humble and generally losing opinion. But this bet seems easy
Thanks for validating my Pony Boy play, Goaty. You're picking up the slack from Brock Landers quite nicely these days.
P.S. You ever get around to scanning in those hand-written notebooks proving you've never hit less than 60% ATS over a whole season of NBA?
Rogue Scholar sighting!
I agree, gotta love Ferrer here. Playing well, big tournament, knows he will get some real rest after this as well. One thing about Ferrer is always plays with a lot of energy. Doesn't pull the garbage guys like Davydenko or Cilic do. He deserves to be ranked near the top like he is!
I agree Black. Ferrer is gonna have to play the match of his life to pull this one out. Can he?? Sure. But I would say that this one favors DelPo around 75% range. At the price we are getting, I gotta go with DelPo to make a statement. The whole world knows that Ferrer can go 1-2 here and easily blame it on fatigue. Ferrer will give 110% today, but so will DelPo. If Ferrer was fresh, I might have to sit this one out. But at -135??? HAVE to take a shot at DelPo. Could be a straight setter for sure. BOL!
the line says it all
enough said
del potro wins this one
Come on with the fatigue stuff guys. These are professional athletes. Not to mention Ferrer has been winning mostly in straight sets. It's not like he just played a grand slam and had a 6-7 7-6 6-7 7-6 32-21 match or something.
Professional athletes recover from playing a 2 set match before they crap out their dinner. Ferrer has a chance to be Spains #1. He isn't going to lay over.
Lines say nothing. Anyone have a stream for this match? none are working for me
Ferrer looking good to take the 1st.
I already addressed fatigue. If that's the reason why you took Del Potro you already lost.
Ferrer is one of the fittest tennis players in the world and endurance-wise maybe the best endurance out of any athlete in any sport in the history of sports and that's not a joke.
Then please explain why ferrer is the dog here???
- higher ranked player
- great form winning 2 straight tourneys
- better h2h stats against potro
All things point to ferrer victory and yet he is the underdog....all the squares are pounding ferrer thinking its a early christmas gift
Potro is losing first set right now...but I am telling you...he will come back to win this match.
I wasn't responding to you. I am on Ferrer. Just everywhere I read people talking about fatigue and wanted to comment on it. I don't care if he's the fittest man in the world. 90% of the players on tour wouldn't be bothered by playing two sets a day for a year straight. So to make that your deciding factor is crazy especially with Ferrer. If Del Potro wins it's because he was the better player. Ferrer is in fine shape, and wants to win. Putting money on Del Potro on the basis you think Ferrer is going to lay over was stupid. If you think he's the better player then fine.
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EaglesPhan36 gave Cuse0323 92 SBR Point(s) for this post.
