I might take them in my survivor league tonight. But I also have Houston left as a pick. But I would really love to save Houston until week 15 or 16.
Does anyone really give Kansas City a chance tonight?
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11-01-12 12:35 PM #1
Throwing the moneyline out the window, what are the real odds that San Diego loses??
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11-01-12 12:41 PM #2
San Diego can put up some real duds. And Thursday night games are rarely well played, well executed games. Depends on how far you think you need to go based on how many other people are still in it. If you need to finish the season, probably best to take a shot on SD, but if you may only need to win for 3-4 more weeks, probably not worth risking a pick on SD this week
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11-01-12 12:43 PM #3
its NFL anything can happen
this team took a healthy Baltimore to a 9-6 wire
but before you look at KC's faults ask yourself if based on history you should EVER trust a SD Rivers led team that SEEMS superior on paper?
last time they played IN KC, the chargers beat them by 17 BUT KC actually outgained them on offense
there was a 6-1 Turnover ratio
IF KC can find a way to score first and thus get the ground game established (Charles had success against them last game) and they can avoid turnovers I think KC could pull it out
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11-01-12 12:44 PM #4
Really NOT worth taking the ML here. Chargers are NOT very good, and KC is a division opponent. Crazy shit happens in division games...
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11-01-12 12:45 PM #5
Well it is a big league with a $100 entry. There are 70 people left since it was a rebuy league for the first 4 weeks. So it will definitely go to at least week 15 and most likely will go into the playoffs unless about 2 people are left and they want to split the $19,000 pool
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11-01-12 12:48 PM #6
I had planned on taking San Diego this week back in week 3 or so, but that was before San Diego starting looking like shit.
If I could take Houston in week 15, then certainly we would be down to the final 10 players. The money is great, but also the bragging rights is very important
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11-01-12 12:49 PM #7
I'd stay away from San Diego
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11-01-12 12:51 PM #8
Dogs are 6-1 ATS this year in NFL on "Thursday night",
with 4 of the 6 winning outright!
So to answer your ?
Hell ya San Diego can lose,
especially on a "Thursday night".....................................
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11-01-12 12:52 PM #9
I don't agree with rebuy survivor pools going past week one. Not fair at all to those that have lasted. People who have busted out are being rewarded with an entry with a higher +ev than the initial buy in.
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11-01-12 12:52 PM #10
POUND IT!
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11-01-12 12:54 PM #11
81% of thursday night home favorites of more than 3 win
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11-01-12 01:06 PM #12
San Diego likes to play opposite of perception, you think they look good, they will suck in the near future. They go 2-6 and everyone says they are awful, they will finish strong, so if you think they look bad, now is the time to bet them.
I know this sounds stupid but with the chargers, less is more.
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11-01-12 01:09 PM #13
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11-01-12 01:10 PM #14
not this year
Originally Posted by dodger33
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11-01-12 01:17 PM #15
7 point or higher faves are 24-4 su this year (85.7%), 79-15 (84%) last year.
So you are looking at winning ~85% of the time.
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11-01-12 01:21 PM #16
Why would you save houston for week 15 or 16. Lol. They will have the division and first round bye locked up well before then. By week 15 they won't have shit to play for. Originally Posted by playersonly69
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11-01-12 01:23 PM #17
roflmao Originally Posted by sneakerhead
pound it!
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11-01-12 01:25 PM #18
25.89% for KC to win
Thread is over. Why do you care what a bunch of squares think the true ML is when Pinny did all the work for you.
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11-01-12 01:25 PM #19
Positives for K.C. - S.D. is down to 3 healthy wide receivers, 2 of which were signed in the last 2 weeks. It's possible that Meachem could be a 4th guy able to play but he has a muscle strain and is probably at the least milking it after his horrendous dropped pass against Cleveland and just a general failure since he was signed. They are not that far off from S.D. stat-wise. S.D. is on it's heels, with everyone calling for regime change - the crowd will turn on them if they don't get off to a good start in this game. Their regular KR guy (not that they'll get that many) Goodman, is out. He was pretty fast and the replacement for him is not even firmed up. S.D. may have a slight drop-off in FG accuracy with Novak though he has a stronger leg than Kaeding, who is now gone. Norv Turner is the HC. K.C. can run the ball a bit. K.C.'s defense is decent.
Negatives for K.C. - they are still the K.C. of this year. Etc.
The Chargers have lost many "must" games over the last few years but this is really one, at home, after the Cleveland debacle. K.C. ML is pretty tough here.
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11-01-12 01:33 PM #20
Did anyone see KC against Oakland last week? What a pathetic outing. Division game... Thursday night... Normally I'd take the dog but SD NEEDS a win tonight, a big win.
"Trends" end tonight. SD rolls KC.
Cassel or Quinn...?? Neither one of those guys gets anything done on offense... J. Charles is the only dimension to KC offense, and with a measly effort by the defense, SD prevents anything crazy from happening
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11-01-12 01:46 PM #21
Originally Posted by TheCentaur
True, but the rebuys add to the total prize pool. How else do you think that I would have been able to take the Jets in week 1, Philly, and Cincinnati
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11-01-12 01:48 PM #22
I did. KC looked like a high school team Originally Posted by RetardStrength
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11-01-12 01:49 PM #23
All time Originally Posted by DudleyDawson
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11-01-12 01:57 PM #24
Chargers usually play good after they have a shitty game. Chargers will roll tonight.
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11-01-12 01:59 PM #25
Absolute pathetic outing. There may have been only 2 games on at 4 this past Sunday, but only one of them was NOT painful to watch. The highlight of KC-OAK was the commercial breaks Originally Posted by dodger33
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11-01-12 02:02 PM #26
What's last week have anything to do with this week? Originally Posted by RetardStrength
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11-01-12 02:03 PM #27
If these two teams squared off 5 times with the exact same variables, I'd give KC a 1 in 5 chance of winning.
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11-01-12 02:04 PM #28
Merely pointing out KC's abilities (or lack thereof) against a laughable Oakland squad... Originally Posted by k13
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11-01-12 02:05 PM #29
This is about as good a chance you'll have to use San Diego.
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11-01-12 02:06 PM #30
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11-01-12 02:30 PM #31
I'm thinking the same thing. But, I'm not a "saving teams" guy either. What do I know, NE busted me out week 2. Originally Posted by ttrace35
One thing, who will the rest of the league be picking? It's worthwhile to do the opposite of what everyone else is doing.
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11-01-12 02:55 PM #32
The public is using KC with the pts feel free to use SD in your pool they win
Except I think your full of shit any ways
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11-01-12 03:19 PM #33
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Salud boys!
This is how i roll
Odds for SanDiego to win just plummeted off the chart....................
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11-01-12 03:34 PM #34
Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu uck
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11-02-12 06:11 AM #35
Make that 25-4 now. Originally Posted by k13
The reason books don't offer good odds on teasers anymore.
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