1. 10-30-12 01:19 PM #1
    hels
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    Only make small bets for the first few weeks of NBA season

    I am already seeing a whole bunch of LOCK threads by SBRs very worst dudleydawson. The guy is lucky to be 15 years old and acts like a 16 year old neckbeard living in his parents basement.

    The first few weeks of the NBA season are unpredictable at best. Star veteran players aren't in game shape yet and will not pull their weight. Lots of lazy jump shots and not crashing the boards. Young players will try to play too hard and make bad decisions.

    We've got 7+ months of NBA basketball ahead of us, don't blow your rolls in the first couple weeks. Only make small plays to start and pick your spots.

    BOL this season SBR
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  2. 10-30-12 01:30 PM #2
    accuscoresucks
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    great advice thanks for sharing.
    i normally to this with all start sports if i have to i go 1/3u a play..
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  3. 10-30-12 01:36 PM #3
    pologq
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    def a good point. any veteran should be doing this with all sports. most lines are based off of last year barring injuries.
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  4. 10-30-12 01:39 PM #4
    Big Bear
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    that being said that Boston +6 bet is starting to look good.


    I would assume the large majority of bets are coming in on Heat -6. Seems like a fishy line to me anyway, i would think Boston would be getting 10 or more under normal circumstances

    are there any injuries on Miami or anything that could help Boston?
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  5. 10-30-12 01:39 PM #5
    MikeTheKnight
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    Great thread, very helpful for inexperienced NBA betters like myself.
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  6. 10-30-12 01:41 PM #6
    MikeTheKnight
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    that being said that Boston +6 bet is starting to look good.


    I would assume the large majority of bets are coming in on Heat -6. Seems like a fishy line to me anyway, i would think Boston would be getting 10 or more under normal circumstances

    are there any injuries on Miami or anything that could help Boston?
    No injuries that I know of.

    I'm thinking Boston didn't get too many points due to this being an opener, the preseason performance, and their new additions like Terry.
    Nevertheless, I'm looking forward to this one.
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  7. 10-30-12 01:44 PM #7
    mynameismud
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeTheKnight View Post
    No injuries that I know of.

    I'm thinking Boston didn't get too many points due to this being an opener, the preseason performance, and their new additions like Terry.
    Nevertheless, I'm looking forward to this one.
    this the only one i see.


    • Joel Anthony ruled out for Heat opener
      Oct 29 - 12:30 PM



    Miami Heat

    Name POS Status Date Injury Returns
    Joel Anthony F/C Sidelined Sep 30 hamstring Day-to-day
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  8. 10-30-12 01:45 PM #8
    tto827
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    Well this can be good advice... Most people have no better than a coin flip chance at any time, so it really doesn't matter.

    Also, if you have a lean on a team to exceed or play below expectations, then you can get favorable odds that will not be there by the middle/end of the season.
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  9. 10-30-12 01:48 PM #9
    hels
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    that being said that Boston +6 bet is starting to look good.


    I would assume the large majority of bets are coming in on Heat -6. Seems like a fishy line to me anyway, i would think Boston would be getting 10 or more under normal circumstances

    are there any injuries on Miami or anything that could help Boston?
    The line seems off to me as well. Miami opening at home one would think will destroy whoever they play. The line opening -7 and now at -6 seems quite strange.

    This being the season opener though there aren't any true angles to decipher with 65-75% certainty.

    You can look at this game 2 ways:
    1) Miami opening at home will steamroll through the older Celtics
    2) Boston only being given 6 points looks fishy so maybe they are the play
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  10. 10-30-12 01:49 PM #10
    opie1988
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    The NBA blows.

    Just bet football.
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  11. 10-30-12 01:51 PM #11
    BIGDAY
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    I like Pounding!!!

    Walker thanks me.
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  12. 10-30-12 02:00 PM #12
    Big Bear
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    i'm still looking at this game but my angle on Boston would be they are probably more motivated for this game and might be out to make a statement.

    The Heat will have a bulls eye on their back this season and every team will judge themselves by the way they play against the Heat.

    and in the NBA motivation seems to be everything. Lebron and D-wade are probably think yeah yeah we are great , gives us our rings, we got a long season lets just go through the motions and make sure we are healthy for the playoffs
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  13. 10-30-12 02:16 PM #13
    RonPaul2008
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    The easiest time to win in any sport is at the beginning of the season.
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  14. 10-30-12 02:18 PM #14
    Big Bear
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    aight ron paul give us a winner please
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  15. 10-30-12 02:37 PM #15
    Holtgetsback
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    how about you make small bets f.ag

    I will make huge wagers before the market has the opportunity to correct itself
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  16. 10-30-12 03:48 PM #16
    hels
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    Quote Originally Posted by Holtgetsback View Post
    how about you make small bets f.ag

    I will make huge wagers before the market has the opportunity to correct itself
    And what are these 'huge wagers' you are making tonight pal?
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  17. 10-30-12 04:51 PM #17
    RonPaul2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    aight ron paul give us a winner please
    just took over 186 on heat/celtics
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  18. 10-30-12 05:01 PM #18
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    I am already seeing a whole bunch of LOCK threads by SBRs very worst dudleydawson. The guy is lucky to be 15 years old and acts like a 16 year old neckbeard living in his parents basement.

    The first few weeks of the NBA season are unpredictable at best. Star veteran players aren't in game shape yet and will not pull their weight. Lots of lazy jump shots and not crashing the boards. Young players will try to play too hard and make bad decisions.

    We've got 7+ months of NBA basketball ahead of us, don't blow your rolls in the first couple weeks. Only make small plays to start and pick your spots.

    BOL this season SBR
    I would say if you haven't done your research, it's better to err on the side of caution. Too many people do as you say and let their enthusiasm get the best of them. I would say readers should disregard the opinion of ANYONE that uses the term "lock" about a bet in any sport.

    However... the first month of NBA offers some unreal opportunities in mispriced lines and matchups where one team is much further ahead in getting into game-shape. The key to betting the first few weeks of NBA is research and experience.
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  19. 10-30-12 05:08 PM #19
    solman
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    It's like this. I love the NBA not only betting but the game itself. This is my third season betting anywhere from 500-3000 quarter/game. I've noticed too much unpredictable behavior in the first few mos of the season. My time starts Feb 1-Apr 15. Nothing less, nothing more. Just my thought anyways. But don't think I'm not betting first game tonight! gl all.
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  20. 10-30-12 05:14 PM #20
    accuscoresucks
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    boys we will bet nba till the wife shuts us down.
    get it while we can
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  21. 10-30-12 05:37 PM #21
    brainfreeze0
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    Quote Originally Posted by RonPaul2008 View Post
    just took over 186 on heat/celtics
    Also took the over on this game.
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  22. 10-30-12 05:54 PM #22
    odog11
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    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    The line seems off to me as well. Miami opening at home one would think will destroy whoever they play. The line opening -7 and now at -6 seems quite strange.

    This being the season opener though there aren't any true angles to decipher with 65-75% certainty.

    You can look at this game 2 ways:
    1) Miami opening at home will steamroll through the older Celtics
    2) Boston only being given 6 points looks fishy so maybe they are the play
    Boston got younger, deeper and more versatile in the offseason, revenge factor, coaching edge. Lebron may go off and the Heat cover, but Celtics and the points the play in this one. Not a fishy line IMO.
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  23. 10-30-12 05:57 PM #23
    Holtgetsback
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    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    And what are these 'huge wagers' you are making tonight pal?
    boston +7
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  24. 10-30-12 06:51 PM #24
    xraygord
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    Quote Originally Posted by hels View Post
    I am already seeing a whole bunch of LOCK threads by SBRs very worst dudleydawson. The guy is lucky to be 15 years old and acts like a 16 year old neckbeard living in his parents basement.

    The first few weeks of the NBA season are unpredictable at best. Star veteran players aren't in game shape yet and will not pull their weight. Lots of lazy jump shots and not crashing the boards. Young players will try to play too hard and make bad decisions.

    We've got 7+ months of NBA basketball ahead of us, don't blow your rolls in the first couple weeks. Only make small plays to start and pick your spots.

    BOL this season SBR
    This is good advice for hockey and baseball as well. Wait until halfway through the season and up your bets.
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  25. 10-30-12 07:49 PM #25
    RonPaul2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by xraygord View Post
    This is good advice for hockey and baseball as well. Wait until halfway through the season and up your bets.
    I don't know about hockey and baseball, but for college basketball and college football it's horrible advice.
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  26. 10-30-12 07:58 PM #26
    hels
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    The guys on Heat/Celts Over look to be doing really well so far in the 1h

    Miami has been favoured anywhere from -4.5 to -10 in Pinny live action. The spread could come down to a final possession garbage 3 or useless foul. Still lots of game left but the Celts certainly look to be good value at -6.5. Lots of easy buckets too.
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  27. 10-30-12 08:00 PM #27
    hels
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    Quote Originally Posted by RonPaul2008 View Post
    I don't know about hockey and baseball, but for college basketball and college football it's horrible advice.
    I think college sports are much more geared towards playing your hardest the full 40/60 minutes for the most part. But college football you'll get Oregon up 60 at half and only win the game by 67 or something. There are lots more exploitable lines in college sports if you know what you're doing (which very few SBR posters know).
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  28. 10-30-12 09:33 PM #28
    RonPaul2008
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    haha, the heat suck without lebron.
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  29. 10-30-12 09:35 PM #29
    tblues2005
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    I like College basketball season far better than the NBA. I seem to do much better betting college basketball.
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