I am still new to handicapping and I am stuck on this one. I bought Wong's book and I guess at some point I will actually read all of it, but all I've seen in there regarding assigning probability is that he comments one time saying that the probability you assign will always be somewhat overstated, and another place where he talks about assigning probability for parlays and he references totals and historical stats, but it seems to me that much more ought to be taken into consideration. I dunno...the book is dry as hell and it's probably in there but I thought it would be easier to come in here and ask you guys.
So let me cut to the chase...As far as I can see...there is no solid way to assign probability, therefore there is no way to truly determine EV. Am I wrong, and if so, can someone set me straight on this?
And another question...how many cappers here do all the math and determine EV and whatnot, and how many just wing it?