1. #1
    Murray Rothbard
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    My plays for the week so far, thoughts?

    Oct 25 02:08 AM
    by: INTERNET
    36700379 CFB Oct 25 07:35 PM STRAIGHT BET
    [105] CLEMSON -11½-110
    55/50
    Oct 25 02:10 AM
    by: INTERNET
    36700395 CFB
    CFB
    Oct 25 07:35 PM
    Oct 27 08:05 PM
    REVERSE ACTION (50 USD) (1 of 1)
    [105] CLEMSON -11½-110
    [195] LOUISIANA TECH -30½-110
    110/200
    Oct 25 04:10 PM
    by: INTERNET
    36715087 CFB
    CFB
    Oct 25 07:35 PM
    Oct 26 08:05 PM
    REVERSE ACTION (25 USD) (1 of 1)
    [105] CLEMSON -12-110
    [109] NEVADA -3-135 (B+½)
    68/100
    Oct 25 04:16 PM
    by: INTERNET
    36715372 CFB
    CFB
    CFB
    Oct 25 07:35 PM
    Oct 26 08:05 PM
    Oct 27 08:05 PM
    PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
    [105] CLEMSON -12-110
    [109] NEVADA -3-135 (B+½)
    [195] TOTAL o77½-110
    (LOUISIANA TECH vrs NEW MEXICO STATE)
    25/133

    What do you guys think?

  2. #2
    Louisvillekid1
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    Well,

    At first glance I never like to put all my eggs in one basket, so to speak...

    If you like Clemson that much, you should of just bet everything on them straight up..

  3. #3
    Louisvillekid1
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    Risking like $260 to win like $480 and so many things have to go right....

  4. #4
    Murray Rothbard
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    Hey Louisvillekid, thanks for the advice. Thinking about what you said it does make a lot of sense to just put big money on Clemson. I guess my reasoning for not doing that (at the time) was that I was trying to get the most "bang for my buck" so to speak. For example in my AR's I am risking 178/300. However I don't see me losing both sides of either of those bets so I guess in my head I saw it more as 75 (+juice)/300. Probably not the best way to go about taking AR's but just being honest.

    That being said, putting big money on Clemson does seem like the better/safer play. I'm new to all this so I'm learning as I go. Thanks again for the advice.

  5. #5
    tmgissy
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    agree with louisville, just double up on clemson.

  6. #6
    Louisvillekid1
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    We've all been there trying to maximize, but you have to remember this is a marathon...

    I always recommend 3 simple Money Management Rules...

    Only play 1% to 2% of your roll per play ( 1 unit and 2 unit plays)
    Never more than 10% at one time...
    When you lose more than 10% in one day, take a week off...

    And Im not suggesting putting big money on Clemson, but you obviously need them to win or you lose the entire card...

    Taking shots with parlays are fine as long as small risk/high reward...

    GL pal, and welcome to the site...
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  7. #7
    Murray Rothbard
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    We've all been there trying to maximize, but you have to remember this is a marathon...

    I always recommend 3 simple Money Management Rules...

    Only play 1% to 2% of your roll per play ( 1 unit and 2 unit plays)
    Never more than 10% at one time...
    When you lose more than 10% in one day, take a week off...

    And Im not suggesting putting big money on Clemson, but you obviously need them to win or you lose the entire card...

    Taking shots with parlays are fine as long as small risk/high reward...

    GL pal, and welcome to the site...
    Sound like solid advice. Thanks again!

  8. #8
    Louisvillekid1
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    That's what SBR is here for...

  9. #9
    Murray Rothbard
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    Louisvillekid1, forgetting about how I arranged my picks for the moment, how do you like Clemson, Nevada, and LA Tech this week/weekend?

  10. #10
    Louisvillekid1
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    On paper Clemson should roll Wake, but I'm just not in the business of laying double digits on the road. Especially not under the lights during the week, as strange things seems to happen more often.

    3 Road Favorites, I hope you Cash pal...

  11. #11
    Murray Rothbard
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    On paper Clemson should roll Wake, but I'm just not in the business of laying double digits on the road. Especially not under the lights during the week, as strange things seems to happen more often.

    3 Road Favorites, I hope you Cash pal...
    Haha I hear ya on that man, I'm usually skeptical of double digit favorites in mid week games but I really like Clemson to cover and I've been convinced (from reading around these boards) that Clemson is just that much better than WF for anything like that to matter tonight. Like you said, on paper Clemson should do work but for some reason these mid week games (at least in the NFL) seem to bring out the worst in the favorites. Really hoping that's not to be the case tonight lol but time will tell. Thanks for the input.

  12. #12
    Urbanwildlife
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    Quote Originally Posted by Murray Rothbard View Post
    Oct 25 02:08 AM
    by: INTERNET
    36700379 CFB Oct 25 07:35 PM STRAIGHT BET
    [105] CLEMSON -11½-110
    55/50
    Oct 25 02:10 AM
    by: INTERNET
    36700395 CFB
    CFB
    Oct 25 07:35 PM
    Oct 27 08:05 PM
    REVERSE ACTION (50 USD) (1 of 1)
    [105] CLEMSON -11½-110
    [195] LOUISIANA TECH -30½-110
    110/200
    Oct 25 04:10 PM
    by: INTERNET
    36715087 CFB
    CFB
    Oct 25 07:35 PM
    Oct 26 08:05 PM
    REVERSE ACTION (25 USD) (1 of 1)
    [105] CLEMSON -12-110
    [109] NEVADA -3-135 (B+½)
    68/100
    Oct 25 04:16 PM
    by: INTERNET
    36715372 CFB
    CFB
    CFB
    Oct 25 07:35 PM
    Oct 26 08:05 PM
    Oct 27 08:05 PM
    PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
    [105] CLEMSON -12-110
    [109] NEVADA -3-135 (B+½)
    [195] TOTAL o77½-110
    (LOUISIANA TECH vrs NEW MEXICO STATE)
    25/133

    What do you guys think?
    You are a very smart man Mr. Murray Rothbard! Very much looking forward to you taking that stroll to the pay window, because I am going to be right along side of you!

  13. #13
    Murray Rothbard
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    Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife View Post
    You are a very smart man Mr. Murray Rothbard! Very much looking forward to you taking that stroll to the pay window, because I am going to be right along side of you!
    I sure hope so haha. CHEERS!

  14. #14
    SBR_John
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    I'm finding Sat's card VERY hard.

    I like South Carolina. After playing two of the best teams in the country I think the cocks will fire on all cylinders at home against a verrry average Tennessee team.

  15. #15
    A4K
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    I like the Clemson and Nevada angles. I do not know enough about Louisiana Tech to make an informative decision.

  16. #16
    Murray Rothbard
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    Quote Originally Posted by A4K View Post
    I like the Clemson and Nevada angles. I do not know enough about Louisiana Tech to make an informative decision.
    Thanks for the input A4K!

  17. #17
    A4K
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    Quote Originally Posted by Murray Rothbard View Post
    Thanks for the input A4K!
    No worries. Tonight should be a good night for you. I expect Clemson to roll.

  18. #18
    Murray Rothbard
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    Quote Originally Posted by A4K View Post
    No worries. Tonight should be a good night for you. I expect Clemson to roll.
    I sure hope so and I agree, Clemson should vastly outperform WF tonight. Even though Clemson has a pretty bad defense WF has an even worse offense so I expect a 45-17 route by Clemson.

  19. #19
    Urbanwildlife
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    No hope or shoulds, THEY WILL!

  20. #20
    Murray Rothbard
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    Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife View Post
    No hope or shoulds, THEY WILL!
    You're right! I have to stop doubting myself haha. GAME TIME!

  21. #21
    Urbanwildlife
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    We ARE going to the pay window Murray!

  22. #22
    tto827
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    Good start for everyone

  23. #23
    biggedge
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    I love this thread because a) I agree on the picks (although not touching the total in La Tech game) and b) imo Murray Rothbard is one of the greatest humans to have ever lived.

  24. #24
    Louisvillekid1
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    Gl boys

  25. #25
    Murray Rothbard
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    Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife View Post
    We ARE going to the pay window Murray!
    Baleeeed dat! Haha.

  26. #26
    D Med
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    Quote Originally Posted by Murray Rothbard View Post
    I sure hope so and I agree, Clemson should vastly outperform WF tonight. Even though Clemson has a pretty bad defense WF has an even worse offense so I expect a 45-17 route by Clemson.
    Your score prediction looks good as well lol. Nice call Murray.

  27. #27
    Murray Rothbard
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggedge View Post
    I love this thread because a) I agree on the picks (although not touching the total in La Tech game) and b) imo Murray Rothbard is one of the greatest humans to have ever lived.
    2 cheers to that.

    @Louisvillekid1, Thanks bud.
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  28. #28
    Murray Rothbard
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    Quote Originally Posted by D Med View Post
    Your score prediction looks good as well lol. Nice call Murray.
    Thanks!

  29. #29
    A4K
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    Great call, Murray! Listen to that GUT and pound it!


  30. #30
    Murray Rothbard
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    Quote Originally Posted by A4K View Post
    Great call, Murray! Listen to that GUT and pound it!

    Some of the best advice ever. Thank you Sir.

  31. #31
    A4K
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    Quote Originally Posted by Murray Rothbard View Post
    Some of the best advice ever. Thank you Sir.
    I should have listened to my gut and played Clemson. Instead, I jumped on Vikings ML and barely escaped with a LIVE BET on Buccaneers -13.5 with seven minutes left in the game.

    Barely made a profit.

    Have to listen to that GUT!

  32. #32
    Murray Rothbard
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    Quote Originally Posted by A4K View Post
    I should have listened to my gut and played Clemson. Instead, I jumped on Vikings ML and barely escaped with a LIVE BET on Buccaneers -13.5 with seven minutes left in the game.

    Barely made a profit.

    Have to listen to that GUT!
    That was a nice out you played there, congrats on squeezing out some profit. But you're absolutely right. Lately I've been over-analyzing games and found myself on a losing streak. I've been listening to my gut more this time around and so far so good. Hoping tonights game was the beginning of a big weekend for me. Best of luck to everyone in here this weekend.

  33. #33
    bane
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    Congrats Murray! Can you give me the quick n dirty on your reverse action play? I googled it but I don't understand it.

    I *think* it means that if Clemson wins, you ride it as 2 separate two team parlays? But if it loses, those parlays are no action? So, the angle is rather than lay a buncha money on 2 parlays only to lose, you pay more juice & get the option for no action....

    Am I close?

    Edit to Add: I put Clemson in 2 parlays & 3 teasers. Although it worked out... not too bright I think. But, I'm only just learning about different betting options.

  34. #34
    Murray Rothbard
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    bane,

    I think you're close. AR's are two separate bets basically. Take my Clemson/LA Tech play for example.

    In that play I wagered $50 but my total investment/return is 110/200.

    If I split on Clemson/LA Tech I lose what I wagered ($50) plus juice (10%) = $55

    If I lose both Clemson/LA Tech I lose $110.

    If I win both Clemson/LA Tech I win $200.

    Unfortunately AR's don't have an option for no action but I guess my angle when taking AR's is that in my experience, I rarely lose both sides of the AR therefore I feel as though I am getting better odds or greater "bang for my buck" so to speak by playing two teams i feel good about in an AR than a parlay.

    This is probably a risky way of approaching AR's but playing them has served me well in the past so I don't see any reason to stop now though I do agree with people like Louisvillekid1 that if you do take multiple AR's (or games in general) it's a good rule of thumb not to have the 1 team tied to all of them for obvious reasons.

    I'm not sure if I answered your question to your satisfaction but that is the only way I know how to explain how AR's work. Hope it helps.
    Last edited by Murray Rothbard; 10-26-12 at 03:32 AM.
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  35. #35
    bane
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    Thank you Murray! That made perfect sense!

    I see why action reverse might be favorable over a traditional parlay. And Lousivillekid's point makes more sense as well.

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