Small play on clemson for me
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10-24-12 03:01 AM #36
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10-24-12 03:04 AM #37
I think the whole board agrees that CLEM is the play. I can't imagine taking the other side. This looks like a free one, ACC and all!!!!
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10-24-12 05:29 AM #38
There is no free money, anytime, anywhere. Especially on a Thursday.
Wait until the line moves, then take Wake Forest on the moneyline.
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10-24-12 06:01 AM #39
Clemson has a history of getting tripped out so wouldn't lay the wood but I'm still taking Clemson. Don't see how you could take Wake on the money line. Who does Wake have that can cover Watkins And Hopkins? Both first round picks! This one is about athletes and playmakers. Tigers have them, Demon Deacons don't.
Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Urbanwildlife
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10-24-12 06:15 AM #40
Seriously? Have you seen WF play this year? I have and they are terrible. They have one good Player on offense - wr michael campanaro who has been out a few weeks with a broken hand and may or may not play this week.
On defense - lol - undersized and slow.
Clemson is going to crush them but just in case that doesnt happen there isnt a single chance in hell of a wake forest moneyline being a winning bet. Go back and look at their pansy schedule. Any team worth a shit would be 6-1 at this point. They even struggled with Army - that game was closer than the score and army led in the 4th qtr.
Originally Posted by Barnes & Whine
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10-24-12 07:04 AM #41
yeah for sure something isnt right . i think ppl r poundin on clem. if it too good to be true. take wake fo Originally Posted by lonegambler
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10-24-12 08:25 AM #42
Huge reverse line movement here. I am really surprised. I watch mostly ACC and SEC football, and I know for a fact Clemson is better by at least 20 here. Of course anything can happen in one game but this line move does not make sense. Boyd is listed as "probable" but even if he did not play the backup is not terrible, and they can always run the wildkat.
Mac - do your calculations take into account Clemson has played a slightly more difficult schedule and they backed off in two games (Ball State and Furman)? Wake has not backed off in any games. My calculation is Clemson 41, Wake 20.
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10-24-12 08:31 AM #43
According to this website 83% of the public is taking Clemson on the spread and 99% of the public is taking Clemson on the ML yet the spread has gone down to 11.5. What am I missing here? Sounds way too good to be true.
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10-24-12 08:36 AM #44
Completely agree. In betting, isn't this a classic trap? I don't have any statistics but I'd be interested in seeing how favorites in both college and nfl have done collectively when they play on days not named Saturday and Sunday. Something tells me the favorites ATS record is not good. At least I believe this to be the case in the nfl this year. Can't really speak on college. Originally Posted by possum11
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10-24-12 09:18 AM #45
and they were saying last week that Oregon would not cover the Thursday night game against Arizona State either, and Oregon was not the home team. Talent and good coaching wins games, not the day of the week the game is played on.
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10-24-12 09:26 AM #46
i have them on a teaser @ -1. Lock.
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10-24-12 09:45 AM #47
Books reversing the line and hoping for a big payout. Sometimes they lose too. This is a game where the only play is clemson or no play at all.
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10-24-12 10:13 AM #48
Rumors Campanaro will play. Originally Posted by Murray Rothbard
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10-24-12 10:29 AM #49
This is the 5th straight game with RLM against Clemson. Clemson covered the previous four and will probably cover again this week. Clemson plays much better than its stats, so every week stat-based players move the line against Clemson. Don't worry about it. Originally Posted by possum11
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10-24-12 10:45 AM #50
The only side I could play here is Wake + doubles.
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10-24-12 01:28 PM #51
I conquer. Clemson is going to crush. Both defenses are awful, but Clemson is averaging 40 points a game to Wake Forest's 22. Might actually be the possible score.
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10-24-12 01:47 PM #52
I seen that but even with Campanaro do you see WF covering losing by less than 11.5? Originally Posted by bane
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10-24-12 02:04 PM #53
Slim and none!
Just made this my biggest play of the year, bigger than my Oregon play last Thursday. I am not sure about you guys, but I am totally confident in my play on Clemson. 
to all you Clemson players, so cheer those Tigers into the end zone tomorrow night! 
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10-24-12 02:10 PM #54
BOL bro. Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife
Slim and none! Just made this my biggest play of the year, bigger than my Oregon play last Thursday. I am not sure about you guys, but I am totally confident in my play on Clemson. to all you Clemson players, so cheer those Tigers into the end zone tomorrow night!
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10-24-12 02:12 PM #55
Originally Posted by Boomstick6
clemson's gonna bury a lot of people tomorrow...
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10-24-12 02:22 PM #56
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10-24-12 02:23 PM #57
I heard the same thing last week about Oregon, which only made that stroll to the pay window that much sweeter! Originally Posted by Ghenghis Kahn
clemson's gonna bury a lot of people tomorrow...
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10-24-12 02:37 PM #58
As mentioned earlier, this will be a great game to live bet on. Took Clemson -11.5 for 5% of bank roll.
Hoping Wake scores first to move that -11.5 down to -9 or lower. Then I will hit it hard. Regardless I think Clemson will dominate this game and will win by +20. This is with letting up at the end when they are up by 35+.
The game is in no way a lock. Wake can have their best game of the year and Clemson their worst. You just don't know. This is why I will be live betting. Want to see how the momentum in the game goes.
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10-24-12 02:39 PM #59
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10-24-12 03:04 PM #60
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10-24-12 03:04 PM #61
Nope. But you asked why the line moved to 11.5 & I think that's one reason why. Lines move based on new information.I'm on Clemson in a couple teasers and parlays. Clemson is a better team on paper but I'm not confident they cover (-13 when I locked). Intangibles: A road favorite on a Thursday night makes me nervous. Swinney is waxing philosophical about the '08 loss to Wake serving as the catalyst for his promotion to interim head coach. At least the coach isn't overlooking the game as an easy win. Oh, and line is now 12 at my book. Originally Posted by Murray Rothbard
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10-24-12 03:05 PM #62
Exactly. Well said! Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife
A 6'4 wideout who runs a 4.5 can do it on Saturday and/or Thursday. A 6'0 db who runs a 4.6 on Saturdays can't grow 2 inches and run a 4.4 bc the game is played on a Thursday.
It's college football and these guys are 18-22 yrs old so anything is possible. But the day of the week isn't a factor.
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10-24-12 03:12 PM #63
A short week favors the home team. Fortunately, Clemson played a home game at noon on Saturday, so they didn't have to travel Saturday night/Sunday morning.
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10-24-12 03:58 PM #64
Books had rough week last week, many public favs hit so this week you better bet your bottom $ they are all going the other way. This is going to be huge "trap" week, you will see monday when you look back. Clemson game is a start, WF will stay within 10. It will be followed by Florida not covering sat as everybodys game of the day, and seattle, and Atlanta not covering sunday as they will be publics largest bets
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10-24-12 04:13 PM #65
Clemson is no Oregon... By any stretch.
Look at last years teams and the game last year. Doesn't it feel just like last year? Stats are dam near identical. Clemson had 3 turnovers last year which kept it close but these are basically the same teams playing against each other. With the exception that Clemson was fired up after a loss and had a week to prepare at home and now they're on the road.
Many of the predictor models have Clemson almost 20 points better but why the low line? It could be because Wake has a better SOS but not for that much disparity. Something doesn't add up. Looking at matchups and Wake may have the advantage in the passing game. Can they defend the Clemson running game? Not sure but if they do, watch out. This game will be very close.
Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife
Just like Oregon last week!
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10-24-12 04:14 PM #66
Add Oklahoma to that list although I love UF and OU this week. The books just may rip us a new one but I got to roll with the faves on those 2 games. I'm not so sure with this one.
Originally Posted by ashulga
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10-24-12 04:34 PM #67
I do not worry about what the books are doing, or what others have to say. I do however try my best to gather as much information as possible, and then try to make a rational decision if I should choose to play a certain game or not, based on what the line is at that time. Yes I know, Clemson is not Oregon, but the reason I referenced Oregon in my previous post, was because every Tom, Dick, Harry, and antagonist on this forum for the most part were telling me, and the rest of the Oregon backers that the books were going to kill us, but as we all know, us Oregon backers all took a stroll to the pay window for a nice payout. We Clemson backers are hearing the same thing now, how the books are going to bury us. This week is going to be no different in my opinion, as the talent level between these two teams is like night and day, and Clemson is going to come out the same way Oregon did last Thursday night, on fire, and put up some quick points on the board, and never look back, as there defense also will step up to the plate for the 2nd week in a row.
As we all know, anything can happen, but I made the decision to ride in the car of the Clemson Tigers, and hopefully I made the right choice, and if I didn't, oh well, I know I did my best in analyzing this game based on my own due diligence, and not relying on what someone else might have told me to do, but sometimes things can happen that you cannot handicap or anticipate.
Go Clemson Tigers!
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10-24-12 04:52 PM #68
OU is actually the right play especially if you can get them at -10 or less. They wil expose ND and ND will take a drop to 8-12 which is where I estimate they be till the end of the season. Nd will go down by dd in OU if OU don't fumble this game away. Anyways good luck with your picks but I will be on Georgia, and possibly OU as well
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10-24-12 05:15 PM #69
I'm not trying to influence anyones decision just trying to throw out some info out there thats 1000 times more important than your research on who is playing and who is not as Vegas already knows it in their lines. Could I be wrong? Ofcourse, but I know what's a right side is at and that's who I will be on. Reading between the lines vs doing the research is far more important. Again i'm a no body important but I would like to help the few that listen. I do this for living, I have a 9-5 just to show Obama that I pay taxes and so I could get a loan of credit for car/house if I needed otherwise I wouldn't work as my 9-5 is not for income. And I know that's where alot of you would like to be because that was my goal when I started. Otherwise why gamble right? I am still very small time compared to where I want to be but I only been doing it for 5 years so I have plenty of time. If you are posting losing years and not learning from your mistakes, gambling is not for you as you will lose you kids education.
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10-24-12 05:16 PM #70
Same here! Teased Clemson down to -1.5 in a big 3 teamer and feeling great about it! Originally Posted by Fry
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