[grease lightnin]

You can't unless you develop a model and back test it, and even then noone is guaranteed of future results.
Buts its the best way to actually find the smallest edge you can while still betting.

If you are picking bets from the sky you will never find when you reach the end limit of +EV

Hey--thanks for responding. So I guess it's safe to say that anyone who says "all my bets are +EV" is basically talking out of their ass unless they have a back-tested model...and even then, really.

The way I see handicapping myself is looking at different factors of a game that will determine the outcome and assigning differing levels of impact to each of these factors and thus deciding which way to bet. Kind of a Ben Franklin approach with a little wing it mojo thrown in. Seems like modeling would take the fun out of it. I like the action, like you No Coin. ;-)

Thanks again fellas.

[A4K]

Hey--thanks for responding. So I guess it's safe to say that anyone who says "all my bets are +EV" is basically talking out of their ass unless they have a back-tested model...and even then, really.

The way I see handicapping myself is looking at different factors of a game that will determine the outcome and assigning differing levels of impact to each of these factors and thus deciding which way to bet. Kind of a Ben Franklin approach with a little wing it mojo thrown in. Seems like modeling would take the fun out of it. I like the action, like you No Coin. ;-)

Thanks again fellas.

I've back tested strategies that have shown great results only to have them completely change for the following year. Any punter that tells you they only bet on +EV situations is a liar.

[ThaTopMoron]

I've been testing out for Saturdays for example, with the 12:00 games I always single out one spread or +EV ML play and just play that one for 1-5 units. No parlays, no teasers, no totals.

Last 3 Saturdays I've won with Kansas State v Kansas, then Oklahoma v Texas and then this past Saturday I went with Clemson and won that 1 handily too. Its working wonderfully.

[A4K]

I've been testing out for Saturdays for example, with the 12:00 games I always single out one spread or +EV ML play and just play that one for 1-5 units. No parlays, no teasers, no totals.

Last 3 Saturdays I've won with Kansas State v Kansas, then Oklahoma v Texas and then this past Saturday I went with Clemson and won that 1 handily too. Its working wonderfully.

PM me your selections or else I'll be sad.

[Vinnie Paz]

I heard a quote once, No Coin...

Insanity is to do the same thing over & over again and expect different results

[ThaTopMoron]

PM me your selections or else I'll be sad.

Not sure I'm good enough to be tailed at this point in time. I am still a work in progress as far as being a successful, smart, patient gambling man. I just do better with NCAAF & NFL than any other sport.

[A4K]

Not sure I'm good enough to be tailed at this point in time. I am still a work in progress as far as being a successful, smart, patient gambling man. I just do better with NCAAF & NFL than any other sport.

[ThaTopMoron]

If I find something this Saturday for noon ill try to remember to PM you lol

[A4K]

If I find something this Saturday for noon ill try to remember to PM you lol

[ThaTopMoron]

i put a reminder on the computer desktop on a sticky note

[Duff85]

Hey--thanks for responding. So I guess it's safe to say that anyone who says "all my bets are +EV" is basically talking out of their ass unless they have a back-tested model...and even then, really.

It's very unlikely that anyone makes 100% +ev bets. Mine are somewhere in the range of 66% and that is enough to make some good cash. Some of the more high volume bettors on the board would be down closer to 50% i'd suspect.

[A4K]

It's very unlikely that anyone makes 100% +ev bets. Mine are somewhere in the range of 66% and that is enough to make some good cash. Some of the more high volume bettors on the board would be down closer to 50% i'd suspect.

I think 50% is a but on the high side.

[SlickRick1382]

I just can't do it. I've tried. I know if I isolate plays and concentrate more on quality than quantity, I'd have better results. I know if I didn't try to juggle multiple bets in multiple sports in the same week, I'd have better results. I know that it's OK to let games pass, not force the issue, not make a bunch of small bets to dilute the big ones, etc. But I'm a goddam action junkie.

I really want to be able to take the next step where discipline allows me to pick and choose while upping my bet sizes on the games I truly like. Really, I should be looking at 2-3 plays per week in college football and again in the NFL -- at most. With college and pro hoops looming, I'm entering the danger zone where I'm trying to maintain focus and sanity while going after four main sports at the same time. I'm not good enough to do that -- hell, I don't know who is. Yet I've tried it for three straight years.

I realize this is going to bring all of my haters and stalkers out of the woodwork. That's fine. Just looking for an honest discussion about becoming a more disciplined bettor.

If you find anything that works, let me know. I find myself making high volume plays as well and the swings are going to get me soon enough. Just yesterday I wound up giving back basically half the profits from the week. Knowing how sharp NFL lines I should of bet considerably less but just found myself making slightly smaller unit plays.

Good Luck to you, hope you figure it out .....

[Duff85]

I think 50% is a but on the high side.

Yeah sorry I had +ev bettors in mind when I was posting that. Guys that aren't +ev would be well below the 50% mark.

[forloveofthegame]

great info in this thread guys. very common problems for the average capper. I to find myslef betting almost every single big national televised game and in the long run cutting into my profits. I'm getting better but have a long way to go.

[Sam Odom]

11111

Labouchere

is a good way to test YOUR MM discipline

[No coincidences]

If you find anything that works, let me know. I find myself making high volume plays as well and the swings are going to get me soon enough. Just yesterday I wound up giving back basically half the profits from the week. Knowing how sharp NFL lines I should of bet considerably less but just found myself making slightly smaller unit plays.

Good Luck to you, hope you figure it out .....

The key is to know when to walk away -- either after a big early portion of the day or a disastrous one. Either take your profit and start on the next day or cut your losses without going on tilt.

[mikey207]

Download this..... Betting Tracker V1.10 It's FREE and it calculates ROI

Thanks for the link