[ThaTopMoron]

I just can't do it. I've tried. I know if I isolate plays and concentrate more on quality than quantity, I'd have better results. I know if I didn't try to juggle multiple bets in multiple sports in the same week, I'd have better results. I know that it's OK to let games pass, not force the issue, not make a bunch of small bets to dilute the big ones, etc. But I'm a goddam action junkie.

I really want to be able to take the next step where discipline allows me to pick and choose while upping my bet sizes on the games I truly like. Really, I should be looking at 2-3 plays per week in college football and again in the NFL -- at most. With college and pro hoops looming, I'm entering the danger zone where I'm trying to maintain focus and sanity while going after four main sports at the same time. I'm not good enough to do that -- hell, I don't know who is. Yet I've tried it for three straight years.

I realize this is going to bring all of my haters and stalkers out of the woodwork. That's fine. Just looking for an honest discussion about becoming a more disciplined bettor.

If you can't hit your best plays and get up for the week and then stop, walk away until next round of good bets come around.... not just any old tuesday,wednesday football game. if you can't control your # of bets, then you need to quit

[PAYTON20]

Spot betting the only way to go

If you bet multiple games a day you're going to lose your ass

[LT Profits]

As long as the bets are +EV, you don;t want to cut down the volume.

[MeatWad]

I try to bet as many +EV postions as I possibly can. The more the merrier, a happy side effect is I love the all the action. I was mad they repaved Kansas Speedway, or I would have had 10 +EV Nascar bets today.

[MeatWad]

As long as the bets are +EV, you don;t want to cut down the volume.

You beat me to it with your response.

[hockeynut]

I don't play a lot of games for the simple fact of me not having that big of a balance to do so. I usually play between 3-6 games a week at $20 per game for NFL. If I play tomorrow it will actually be 7 games in total. The NFL doesn't always have a great card to pick a lot of games for me. I usually see 3-4 games I like and pick those games. Sometimes I think I should just go with 1 or 2 games that I think are the best plays and lay out $40 on two games as opposed to $20 on 4 games. If I did that this week I would of went 2-0 as I liked the Colts and Cowboys over any other plays. Instead I finished 3-3 on the week for a loss of $1.07. I might make a play tomorrow to try and pull ahead.

[Goat Milk]

what is this

another loser thread

all you do is fukkin complain

probably hang around pessimist losers too

[Duff85]

look for value....if you are finding too many picks with value...then you are doing something wrong in evaluating.

Nearly every single betting option, in nearly every single game will offer value at some point if you have access to enough books.

[crustyme]

been spot betting last couple of months and up 5 figures. just gotta fight the urge to bet everyday and everything in sight.

for example i passed on the sf giants in games 3 & 4, and hammered them game 5 for a nice win.

just remember, a good bet is a no bet sometimes.

[No coincidences]

what is this

another loser thread

all you do is fukkin complain

probably hang around pessimist losers too

You are as bad at reading comprehension as you are at making picks. Hard to believe I know.

[No coincidences]

just remember, a good bet is a no bet sometimes.

Exactly. Just have to remind myself that when I miss a winner -- that for every winner you pass on, there are also plenty of losers that you miss if you're not betting the board.

[Sam Odom]

I don't understand why you have haters and stalkers.....

It takes all kinds... However , No Coin is a self-admitted troll (his words , not sammy's) So , what goes around comes around

He may be one of those who can dish it but cant take it ??

But there's hope for the hopeless - maybe No Coin will change his posting ways ?

[jjgold]

Spot betting still the best way to have a chance

Most cannot do it

[Full Time Hobo]

As long as the bets are +EV, you don;t want to cut down the volume.

This.

[JayLA]

Lots of good information in this thread, thanks

[RudyRuetigger]

Lots of good information in this thread, thanks

please point out the important parts, im not seeing them right now

[JayLA]

please point out the important parts, im not seeing them right now

Here you go smartass:

the replies on a gambling forum to a degenerate-gambling question. "anyone gain from risking less?"

[RudyRuetigger]

Here you go smartass:

the replies on a gambling forum to a degenerate-gambling question. "anyone gain from risking less?"

it was a serious question and your response proves there is nothing worth reading in here.

let me give you a tip:

if you give someone +105 on a coin flip they fukkin know its +EV and will accept the bet. i don't need people to tell me to bet +EV things. wtf is that shit??? dumbest thing I ever heard.

and by the way, NOONE can quantify things without a model that has tons of backtracking. someone telling me there is an edge or value i just laugh at...i also laugh at myself for that

[RudyRuetigger]

and also, the only reason people bet less is so variance is MORE of a factor. in the long run it doesnt fukkin matter

[JayLA]

it was a serious question and your response proves there is nothing worth reading in here.

let me give you a tip:

if you give someone +105 on a coin flip they fukkin know its +EV and will accept the bet. i don't need people to tell me to bet +EV things. wtf is that shit??? dumbest thing I ever heard.

and by the way, NOONE can quantify things without a model that has tons of backtracking. someone telling me there is an edge or value i just laugh at...i also laugh at myself for that

so don't bet on sports?
Getting people to express how/why(poker, hello?) they wager is "good information." That's probably the point of this entire forum.

[grease lightnin]

Nevermind....sheeeeeit.

[RudyRuetigger]

The idea of betting only +EV bets, or mostly +EV bets doen't make sense to me. Sure, you have to win a smaller percentage to break even, but there is a reason these bets are +EV....because they are less likely to win. Am I missing something here?

looks like you need to catch up on EV and EG

[RudyRuetigger]

Getting people to express how they wager is "good information." That's probably the point of this entire forum.

its 96% bad information

and the point of the entire forum is to make money

[JayLA]

its 96% bad information

and the point of the entire forum is to make money

True. Okay, what's the point of joining this forum and making posts?

[RudyRuetigger]

True. Okay, what's the point of joining this forum and making posts?

most people came here when there was a bad payout from a book. some were poker players and came here from poker forums

some people thought i knew what i was talking about at first, even though i tried to warn them im just as fukked at this.


bottomline:

people bet fewer games to RECEIVE variance.
people saying bet +EV games better have a model they use or in reality have no clue (either way it helps YOU, the person reading this ZERO)

[JayLA]

most people came here when there was a bad payout from a book. some were poker players and came here from poker forums

some people thought i knew what i was talking about at first, even though i tried to warn them im just as fukked at this.


bottomline:

people bet fewer games to variance.
people saying bet +EV games better have a model they use or in reality have no clue (either way it helps YOU, the person reading this ZERO)

"RECEIVE variance." key phrase. thanks for the good post. respect.

[chilidog]

I only bet on American sporting events are broadcast on normal cable TV in Costa Rica. That has drastically cut down on my betting volume.

[grease lightnin]

looks like you need to catch up on EV and EG

I get it. Still new, thanks. So...when determining EV how can one put a true probablilty of success number on a game? Does one use a large sample size of their own picks and use a flat rate based on your skill of picking, or do you overweight/underweight the probability of success based on the game itself? Thanks.

Sorry for the thread highjack.

[A4K]

I just can't do it. I've tried. I know if I isolate plays and concentrate more on quality than quantity, I'd have better results. I know if I didn't try to juggle multiple bets in multiple sports in the same week, I'd have better results. I know that it's OK to let games pass, not force the issue, not make a bunch of small bets to dilute the big ones, etc. But I'm a goddam action junkie.

I really want to be able to take the next step where discipline allows me to pick and choose while upping my bet sizes on the games I truly like. Really, I should be looking at 2-3 plays per week in college football and again in the NFL -- at most. With college and pro hoops looming, I'm entering the danger zone where I'm trying to maintain focus and sanity while going after four main sports at the same time. I'm not good enough to do that -- hell, I don't know who is. Yet I've tried it for three straight years.

I realize this is going to bring all of my haters and stalkers out of the woodwork. That's fine. Just looking for an honest discussion about becoming a more disciplined bettor.

I had a similar problem back in the late 90's. You know what cured me? I kept an Excel Sheet of ALL of my plays with a note on each selection. I then put an asterisk next to the ONE bet, each day, that I would place if I only had one bet available. The results after about 300 plays? My asterisked bets had a much higher win percentage, I believe around 4.5% higher.

During Football season I basically bet and scalp for entertainment and fun, but come CBB and NBA season, I limit myself to ONE selection per day. Once in a blue moon, I'll bet 2-3 games, but that is a rarity.

My advice....

Keep good records and analyze your play.

[RudyRuetigger]

I get it. Still new, thanks. So...when determining EV how can one put a true probablilty of success number on a game?

You can't unless you develop a model and back test it, and even then noone is guaranteed of future results.
Buts its the best way to actually find the smallest edge you can while still betting.

If you are picking bets from the sky you will never find when you reach the end limit of +EV

[RudyRuetigger]

People say if you are hitting 60% with a few picks, you aren't betting enough......yea the MODELERS aren't betting enough because they should open their betting parameters more.

If a regular guy is hitting 60% with a few picks people still say you aren't betting enough... ok so what do you want him to do? throw more picks out of his ass til he comes down to 55%?

[A4K]

People say if you are hitting 60% with a few picks, you aren't betting enough......yea the MODELERS aren't betting enough because they should open their betting parameters more.

If a regular guy is hitting 60% with a few picks people still say you aren't betting enough... ok so what do you want him to do? throw more picks out of his ass til he comes down to 55%?

Yeah, I never agreed with that logic. If anything, you should raise your amount wagered.

[NrmlCurvSurfr]

Ive cut my bets down almost 99% in the last few weeks because I was ripped off by my Bookmaker and im still bitter about it, It was a fun run, but now I find myself bored as hell watching sports, unless its the home team...fkn sucks, although, I have ranked up on BF3 and I can pretty much clown on people even when hammered drunk...nothing like sweating out a game though

[No coincidences]

I appreciate the responses guys -- especially from the gamblers who know more than me, like RR, and the ones who have successfully disciplined themselves into better/spot sports bettors.

[A4K]

I appreciate the responses guys -- especially from the gamblers who know more than me, like RR, and the ones who have successfully disciplined themselves into better/spot sports bettors.

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