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Look at my example up in post 16, heads is going to win 50% of the time, so you are saying that the sides are hence even because they both win at the same percentages, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say you do not play underdogs very often.Originally Posted by easyliving
talking about spread here not MLs. both sides are -110 makes no difference. If their is a valuable underdog in the card of course thats different.
That's no different. It's all about line value. Just because both sides are -110 doesn't mean they both have equal value. A line doesn't have to have a "+" in front for it to have value. It's all about determining if a line indicates that the side has a lower winning percentage than what you think. There can be as much value in a -300 line as there is in a +300 one.
And the winning side is not "always" the right side, as you claim.
I bet the Seahawks spread versus the Packers. I won my bet, but it was thanks to some HORRIBLE flags from the replacement refs that were 100% the incorrect calls. Without those multiple, incorrect flags in the last couple minutes, the Seahawks spread would have easily lost. I got extremely lucky to win that bet, and I admit I was on the wrong side. The spread should never have hit and I was on the clear WRONG side, even though it was the winning side. There's no way you can look at that game and say the Seahawks were the right side just because they won -- that is incredibly short-sighted and foolish.
It's very important to know when wins AND losses are based on fluke luck. Long term, sharp analysis and proper bets will overcome fluke luck, so it's important (especially in the short term) to know what losses are because of bad luck and what wins are because of good luck. That way, you know if you need to tweak your strategy or not. To simply disregard fluke outcomes is incredibly foolish. As they say, knowledge is power. And the more knowledge, the better.
Last edited by Luca Fury; 10-23-12 at 03:13 AM.
Well said luca well said
There's always fluky crap in every game. You can look at any one single play and point to it as the reason you lost. Oh man I was on the right side if only he hadn't have fumbled going into the end zone. If you bet Chicago last night and got it at -6.5 then you could argue you were on the right side. The Bears dominated the game and only gave up a single garbage touchdown with 30 seconds left. But it's the Lions backers who won. They were on the right side...the side with a winning ticket. There is so much luck involved. Very rarely does a game turn out exactly how you capped it...those are sweet victories. Otherwise you'll be saying "I was on the right side of all those games I lost" as you reload with your bookie. I agree...there are no moral victories in betting.
Your argument that you can find value is different. Yes, getting +130 on a coin flip is the proper thing to bet but it you'll still lose your bet half the time and possibly more than half the time. Lines are so sharp these days that it's very rare you'll find a 50/50 proposition at +EV odds.
I agree, but "fluke" luck is different than regular luck. You have to know the difference.
The HORRIBLE reffing in the Seahawks game was fluke luck that very rarely happens. Yes, there are occasionally bad ref calls, but not like that. This was an extreme case. Other examples of fluke NFL luck could be losing or winning because a kicker missed a gimme field from the 5 yard line or a quarterback gets injured on the first drive and is out for the game.
As for the Lion game, that's part of the NFL. Teams often score with big drive in the last 2 minutes of each half. Yes, it sucks to lose in the last 30 seconds like that and it is sort of a bad beat, but stuff like that is very common in the NFL. Other examples of regular NFL bad luck could be one team repeatedly turns over the ball in the red zone (like in this game) or one team makes a big comeback in the second half.
As for, say, an MLB game. I've lost while laying juice on a great pitcher who puts on a horrible performance and gets owned -- this is just regular bad luck and is part of the game. Other examples of regular MLB bad luck are the sun getting in an outfielder's eyes, or a home plate umpire making bad calls on the pitches.
One time, I lost because my team was denied of a multi-run home run that was close to the foul pole, but clearly was fair. However the refs said it was foul and my team lost by 1 run. That is fluke luck. Other examples of fluke MLB luck could be a base runner missing one of the bags and instead of scoring, gets out.
Fluke luck = Something that rarely happens and is, well, a FLUKE.
Regular luck = Something where luck is involved, but commonly goes both ways and/or is a "just part of the game".
Last edited by Luca Fury; 10-23-12 at 06:47 PM.
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