[BigPete88]

Guys,

First and foremost, I hate Casinos. Maybe because I was barred for beating them at blackjack many years back. You know, at a game that they offer, pigs that they are.

Bottom line is that I am 100% for the players. I see a lot of posts here and it appears that a bunch of guys, and a few girls, are betting at a higher rate than their bankroll warrants. Knowing numbers as well as I do, I know that risk of ruin is a very real thing and scary if you over bet according to the size of your bankroll.

I suggest betting 2% of bankroll, if and only if, you have a + expected value capper or are truly capable of capping yourself. Kelly Criterion and common sense dictates that if you do not have an advantage, the proper bet size is zero. Maybe go to 3% if the line is way off on a game. I have seen this in NBA which I cap. Top bet should never be more than twice the size of your small bet. I know a guy on another site that picks MLB dogs and varies his units to 3, 4, 5 units which is sound and works for him.

As far as these touts and game of the week, game of the year, lock, etc. Ignore the comments as advertising and if you choose to, bet a little more than normal if you want. There are no locks. Did you see the Denver NFL game last night? Even fixed games lose sometimes. ASU NCAAB about 12 years ago. I knew a guy in that mess. Fixed game lost.

Touts: most suck but not all. Some have 10-30 year track records and are winners. Find them and ignore the rest. 75% does not exist. 55-60% lifetime is fantastic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That will make you money too.

Please manage your money and do not bet more than your bankroll can withstand. Please keep this thread positive with helpful comments to the bettors/investors that we are.

Apologies to all that know and follow this already.

BOL

[tigermaster]

great advice. now can u find me the ones that are 55-60% and post them please?

[TheProdigy8199]

great advice. now can u find me the ones that are 55-60% and post them please?

+1 Thats funny, however there are plenty of handicappers out there that hit in the 50-60% range. The trick, which seems to elude most of the people on this forum, is to stick with a single handicapper/service and stop jumping from capper to capper chasing the ever-so-popular "Big Play". You'll see the same people in a different thread everyday asking for a play from a different service. That is where bankrolls get hurt. Most don't have the discipline to stick to one service, thats why it seems that no one is profitable. They are jumping from losing play to losing play. Sportsbetting is only profitable OVER TIME... many people forget that. You hear all the time that "It's a marathon, not a sprint"...there is nothing truer in the sports-betting world. Every capper goes hot and cold, but over a season many are profitable.

[heleanth]

You are delusional if you think there are plenty of handicappers that hit 50-60%. For one thing, there is a HUGE diffference between 50 and 60%. No one hits 60% over any length of time. There may be a rare few that hit 55%. Let me know who they are.

[TheProdigy8199]

You are delusional if you think there are plenty of handicappers that hit 50-60%. For one thing, there is a HUGE diffference between 50 and 60%. No one hits 60% over any length of time. There may be a rare few that hit 55%. Let me know who they are.

I'm not delusional. You are delusional to think that every service out there is a losing one. This age of Twitter and Facebook where everyone thinks they can be a service and pick games has skewed alot of people perception. There are services who have been around for years that have consistably showed profit; whether people like the services or not is another issue.

Yes there is a big difference between 50 and 60% but you only need to hit just above 53% long term to be profitable. As far as hitting 60%, its not out of the question. Very good cappers can hit in the high 50's-low 60's over the course of a particular sports season. It is certainly not out of the question.

[WONOFTHEGUYS]

correct prodigy

[dise-pa]

WOW ! somebody knows the odds!!! most don't

[TheProdigy8199]

The issue is with people and their unrealistic expectations of what a sports service will do. Someone who doesn't know how sports betting works expects every pick to be a winner and they are pissed when it is not. It's just not how sports betting works. The whole purpose of a service is to have someone who will sway the odds in your favor just slightly to give you a better chance at winning that particular play. Theres nothing more to it than that. It is not like these handicappers are psychic...they dont know how a game is going to play out before it does any more than you or I do. They can only make the best possible "guess" given all of the information around them, which includes not only statistics, but things such as line movement, public perception and other intangibles such as their own personal perception and instincts. Which is why its important to find a handicapper or service that you agree with as far as their analysis goes and fits with your personal style of betting. Each game has a 50-50 chance of winning, that is not some kind of secret. What a handicapper does is hopefully sway the odds so you get more like a 60-40 chance or a 65-35 chance. You probably won't get much better odds than those. For someone to pick the correct side in a game 55% of the time consistantly without knowing the outcome is pretty impressive in my opinion, 60% is just a big bonus. If you expect anything more then you are just naive to the world of gambling.

[BigPete88]

Great cappers hit 55% lifetime and there a few of them. There are a few that hit 60% and I mean a few. Read "Gaming the Game" by Sean Griffin. Billy Walters states a 57-58% win rate. "The Smart Money" by Konik talks about Walters betting group. The Prodigy brings up an excellent point as I have 3 NFL cappers and cancelled a bunch of bets Sunday. One is getting "You're fired".
Sorry but not posting Cappers that I use. Am part of a betting group and not allowed to. IC for WNBA, CFL, NCAAB is the best info I can give and I do use him. He just hit negative variance and if you know math, it has to happen

[BigPete88]

Guys,

55% is what I figure I can get from a handful of top cappers. Anything more is a bonus but not expected.

Here is something to look at when you bet 5 games at a 60% win rate, which is rare but used to show you this math:

Chances of losing one game
1. 40%
2. 20%
3. 10%
4. 5%
5. 2.5%

If you bet 5 games every day, you will lose 5 games one in 40 days over long term. Math does not lie. We have to manage our money. I am never surprised when I lose 5. I know I will and expect it. Variance goes both ways. Protect yourself for the downside.

Please add to this thread and I will keep posting as I wrote a chapter on sports betting money mgt and a book on blackjack. Neither for sale nor free so please do not ask. I will be happy to answer questions if I can except who my cappers are.

[Wojo]

Here is something to look at when you bet 5 games at a 60% win rate, which is rare but used to show you this math:

Chances of losing one game
1. 40%
2. 20%
3. 10%
4. 5%
5. 2.5%

If you bet 5 games every day, you will lose 5 games one in 40 days over long term. Math does not lie. We have to manage our money. I am never surprised when I lose 5. I know I will and expect it. Variance goes both ways. Protect yourself for the downside.

Pete, I don't quite follow what you are saying. The top number is the chance of losing one game with a 60% capper, 40%. So what does the 2. 20% mean? Are you saying that is the chances of losing 2 games if you bet 2 games?

Thanks!

And yes, there are a few cappers-services that hit 55%-60% over several years in a sport.

And, yes, the huge majority of them are lucky to hit 50%.

[BigPete88]

Pete, I don't quite follow what you are saying. The top number is the chance of losing one game with a 60% capper, 40%. So what does the 2. 20% mean? Are you saying that is the chances of losing 2 games if you bet 2 games?

Thanks!


.

Yes. Chances of losing 2 out of 2 are 20%. A little higher with most cappers though. That means 1 in 5 days, you will lose both bets so do not over bet your bankroll!!!!!!