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Anyone Know how Games Showing RLM Did in NFL week 1?
Some of you in here on this site monitor Reverse Line movement when tracking NFL or NCAA college football plays.
Just curious as to which games showed RLM this week in NFL (week 1) and how did those games end up doing?
I will try and track this and see how effective this sort of "strategy" is.
I believe reverse line movement games went 4-1 this opening week.
(a) Green Bay Packers had 70% of the public bet vs. 30% on the 49ers and the line opened at (-6.5) and went down to (-5).
Result: 49ers (+5) won
(b) Carolina Panthers had 81% of the public on them vs. 19% on the Tampa Bay Bucs and the line opened at Carolina (-3) and was down to Carolina (-1) by kickoff.
Result: Bucs (+1) won
(c) Eagles had 74% on them to win vs. 26% on the Browns and line opened at Eagles (-9) and was down to (-7).
Result: Browns (+7) won.
(d) Patriots had 84% of the public on them vs. 16% on the Titans and the line moved down from (-7) to (-5.5) before kickoff.
Result: Patriots (-5.5) covered
(e) Detroit Lions has 77% of the public bet on them vs. 23% on the Rams but the line moved from (-9) down to (-7).
Result: Rams (+7) won
If you want to hit 50% of your plays stick with RLM!
I agree guys. But I would like to have people post on this thread what games qualify each week as RLM games bfore the games start so we can all track and make our bets accordingly for NFL.
Not sure this works as well with NCAA however.
Confirmation bias? Not sure where you're getting these numbers from. Eagles closed -9, Lions -8.5, and Panthers -3. Also take openers at -9 or -1 with a grain of salt given how much books avoid the teaser window.
In reality, it's all moot since this strategy is poorly outdated. Things like RLM, public "money", 'unders' and underdogs are a thing of the past. It's an entirely new marketplace if you've been paying attention the last few years.
It's hard to let go of yesteryear I know. Light a candle and join 2012.
Off the top of my head, I know I noted RLM in both the Cinci/Balt game and Car/Tampa game. Can't remember which way it went.
i got Tampa +145 right before kickoff which was up from opener and also +3 which i believe was higher than it opened, i think a lot of the week it stayed off key number while every dummy hammered the false fav but it did tick up before kickoff which was nice..not a rlm guy but not sure this gm would even qualify...tampa was the easist bet of the weekend tho as i said in my thread they should have been the favs...
Originally Posted by InTheDrink
i sent him a PM that sounded a lot like this bobby,,solid post...imo it just another lazy way out of capping a gm..Confirmation bias? Not sure where you're getting these numbers from. Eagles closed -9, Lions -8.5, and Panthers -3. Also take openers at -9 or -1 with a grain of salt given how much books avoid the teaser window.
In reality, it's all moot since this strategy is poorly outdated. Things like RLM, public "money", 'unders' and underdogs are a thing of the past. It's an entirely new marketplace if you've been paying attention the last few years.
It's hard to let go of yesteryear I know. Light a candle and join 2012.
can i ask where you are getting your percentages from?
Just for the record I never used RLM or any type of BS "get rich quick" theory before in my life. I usually just cap games by watching trends in sports and knowing the teams and the way certain sports and situations work.
But with NFL the conventional way never seems to work as good. It's like its the exact opposite of what sports betting and trying to profit from it is about. Hence instead of beating my brains all day trying to cap games that never work out as I planned for them to.....why not just use RLM.
You can't use RLM with the Cincy/Balt game.....the betting public percentages weren't that big of a dicrepancy to begin with. To qualify for RLM there has to be at least 2/3 or 66% of the public on one side of the bet. Nothing less.
Yeah I agree, I just remember noting it early in the week, no idea what it ended as far as percentages.
Like I said, off the top of my head I made a note of it on my sheet for those games.
maybe just revise the way you cap gms? ultimately nfl is a tough nut to crack, anyone who says different is lying, dont know anyone that goes year to year just killing it, sure i have had monster years but on flip side i have had my ass handed to me several times as well, then of coarse there the years where it up or down less than 1k so pretty much a wash...in the end nfl a enigma to me, by far toughest yet at same time easiest to go on crazy hot run and get super paid, by same token by far easiest sport to bury yourself with... over the yrs ive come to realize the best way for me to go about it is play rather small to start and if it appears im seeing things well start unloading cause when im hot im hot in this sport and it usually last so i get while the getting is good, if im having a tough go of it just keep it small and limit damage as to many times ive thought "surely i would turn it around" and inevitably the turn around never comes that season and it gets ugly....hopefully my saving grace this yr is that last yr was a pretty bad one and yr to yr is almost never the same for me so id expect either one of my wash yrs or better yet a heater of a season
Just keep track of No Coincidences.
If he does well, that means RLM did well
i was pretty surprised i didnt see any post from him in this thread...
I need someone to come into this thread and post the week 2 RLM plays before the games start.
Who is willing?
NYSportsGuy210 will
Week 1 lines were out so long. Can you really go by the RLM there? Sharps I'm sure did alot of middling.
And why do you need someone to do it for you lol. You did just fine above.
Br0nxer sharp as always
Totolover1409 tracked it last year
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/652031-rlm.html
He did well Week 1 I believe but there were not many RLM games last week.
The only true ones were NE/TEN and SF/GB.
Week 1 lines are out so early it can be a little tricky.
Why do you say the only "true" RLM games were NE/ TENN and SF/GB?
All those other games I mentioned had the point spread move in favor of the dog that had public money against them too.
What book and what lines are you using?
Phi opened -6.5, closed -9
Det opened -9 closed -9
Car opened -3, closed -9
Buffalo and Oakland were reverse line movement as well most reverse line record keeping is a joke,
exactly... both of these lines reversed but are not mentioned here not sure why
buffalo was not rlm
buffalo spread moved a lot but 59% of the public was on buffalo
you are right I was not think clearly, public was on Buffalo, but Oakland should of been RLM
and also i think oakland stayed around -1 the whole time. i cold be wrong tho
That was not RLM, that was a public road dog buried alive.
Oak opened -1, closed -1.
This is the problem, supposedly RLM is so easy to spot and keep track yet everyone is mentioning bunch of different games that are not.
Can't say that I follow your logic here? The "conventional way" is too hard so you want to pull out old strategies that have no relevance anymore? I already pointed out you used the wrong closing lines. Others brought up your bet percentages and where you got your opening lines from.
There's a long laundry list of reasons not to use RLM and another one is .... what makes you think "sharp money" is winning money? You do realize that even the best of them only hit around 55% (and that's being generous).
Last year they were all over fading Cincy and blind unders in Week 1. That blew up in their faces. This year the LSV SuperContest consensus picks went 1-4 last week. Steve Fezzik, who vowed to up his game this year, also went 1-4 in the Contest and 0-2 on his biggest offseason Week 1 bets.
The bottom line is to cap your own games.
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