[Griffin]

For a moment, just for a moment, suspend your disbelief and consider a system that bets both the over and under for the same game (MLB NBA). It's a pattern betting system that chases whichever didn't hit until it does (and given the pattern, it does in a very reasonable amount of time). But we're not interested in the system. We're interested in what the sportsbook will do when the system ends up paying off on a regular basis. We're talking small bets on every game throughout the entire season, betting both sides of the total. Any reason they wouldn't pay on this? They accept the bets with no issues so...?

[convick]

Use different books.

[ngates815]

Use different books.


But now enlighten us on how betting both the Over/Under at -110.

Are you talking like a somewhat martingale system like you'd use in roulette?

[Griffin]

Yes, it's a Martingale system. The trick is hitting within a certain period of lost bets which is determined by your bankroll (and your faith in the system). I'm a visual designer and computer geek. When I started looking at betting I worked with moneyline bets and looked for patterns in wins and losses. When you've discerned what the pattern is, you vary your bets to match the pattern, or at least fit within the pattern. The pattern tells you what the bet for each team is -- bet to win or bet to lose. It's a challenging system to track (you should see the spreadsheets) and betting on overs and unders ends up being easier to track and cheaper to work with (the amount you need to bet to cover your previous bets is much lower due to the reduced odds for totals).

Essentially I have a routine that examines the patterns of overs and unders throughout a season and then tests certain repeating bet patterns against the previous outcomes. If I find a pattern that allows me to keep my lost bets to five or six in a row, it's a money machine. And I've found a pattern that works (there are several different patterns that work depending on the sport; NBA is different from MLB).

The trick is -- as always -- money management. You have to be able to weather a certain number of losing bets in a row. Betting every opportunity -- every team, every game, an entire season -- spreads the risk and keeps the balance always in the positive. In MLB that translates to approximately 4800 total games (2460 NBA). A $5 bet at -110 compounded over 8 losses means you'll be betting close to $5000 in the ninth bet. My patterns rarely go beyond five lost bets in a row but occasionally higher but I've never seen it go beyond eight (doesn't mean it won't!). That $5 bet turns out a $24000 profit in one MLB season.

Now, you're going to lose about as many as you win and so you might as well bet the other side of the bet as well. It's a guaranteed winner for every one you lose. And when the losing streak ends and you cover, you start another streak on the other side. So now you're betting $10 per opportunity for a potential profit of $48000. A starting kitty of $5000 should do well.

I don't pretend to imagine that any online book is going to send me $48000 for a $5000 outlay without some trouble. I'm testing it online but eventually I'll have to take it to Vegas. Cash at the end of every day makes me feel a whole lot more comfortable. Worked the kinks out this year (switched from W/L to O/U for instance) and one to a bigger test next.

[RonPaul2008]

Yes, it's a Martingale system. The trick is hitting within a certain period of lost bets which is determined by your bankroll (and your faith in the system). I'm a visual designer and computer geek. When I started looking at betting I worked with moneyline bets and looked for patterns in wins and losses. When you've discerned what the pattern is, you vary your bets to match the pattern, or at least fit within the pattern. The pattern tells you what the bet for each team is -- bet to win or bet to lose. It's a challenging system to track (you should see the spreadsheets) and betting on overs and unders ends up being easier to track and cheaper to work with (the amount you need to bet to cover your previous bets is much lower due to the reduced odds for totals).

Essentially I have a routine that examines the patterns of overs and unders throughout a season and then tests certain repeating bet patterns against the previous outcomes. If I find a pattern that allows me to keep my lost bets to five or six in a row, it's a money machine. And I've found a pattern that works (there are several different patterns that work depending on the sport; NBA is different from MLB).

The trick is -- as always -- money management. You have to be able to weather a certain number of losing bets in a row. Betting every opportunity -- every team, every game, an entire season -- spreads the risk and keeps the balance always in the positive. In MLB that translates to approximately 4800 total games (2460 NBA). A $5 bet at -110 compounded over 8 losses means you'll be betting close to $5000 in the ninth bet. My patterns rarely go beyond five lost bets in a row but occasionally higher but I've never seen it go beyond eight (doesn't mean it won't!). That $5 bet turns out a $24000 profit in one MLB season.

Now, you're going to lose about as many as you win and so you might as well bet the other side of the bet as well. It's a guaranteed winner for every one you lose. And when the losing streak ends and you cover, you start another streak on the other side. So now you're betting $10 per opportunity for a potential profit of $48000. A starting kitty of $5000 should do well.

I don't pretend to imagine that any online book is going to send me $48000 for a $5000 outlay without some trouble. I'm testing it online but eventually I'll have to take it to Vegas. Cash at the end of every day makes me feel a whole lot more comfortable. Worked the kinks out this year (switched from W/L to O/U for instance) and one to a bigger test next.

Please give a specific example.

[trytrytry]

Well DONT QUIT your DAY JOB..in Fact only do your DAY job..you are lost in gambling and your system!

[Griffin]

PDF attached. Boston Red Sox, 2012, Over/Under. Green indicates a winning bet. Longest bet losing streak came at the end of the season. We lost six bets in a row and won on the seventh. Hung it up on the 19th of September, however, as you need to get out with enough time to cover six or seven losses. Seemed like a good time to go.

The PDF shows the full spreadsheet for the season. It's a very long file so you'll have to zoom in. This pattern is specific to BOS and doesn't work for every team. Sometimes the pattern needs to be changed during the season. The sheet shows the bet that was made based on the pattern, the outcome, and red for lost bet, green for won. Based on Bookmaker action.

Trying to attach a screenshot for a quick look. PDF link below...

https://s3.amazonaws.com/SBR-MISC/2012_BOS_O-U.pdf

[ngates815]

Well DONT QUIT your DAY JOB..in Fact only do your DAY job..you are lost in gambling and your system!

That's what I was thinking when I thought to myself, hopefully this isn't a martingale system....


But again guy, you can just treat this like you actually bet on the games..And if and when your system that hardy loses 5 games in a row, loses the 3rd game, then bet the 4th/5th/6th/7th....That is if you're that confident in your system.

It will knock down alot of profit, but will still hopefully keep you away from that 1 time it does go to the 7th or 8th game and you're betting big.

[Griffin]

And, one more thing. The green is a win, but if you're playing both sides everything flips as well. The three losses above on 4/7, 4/8, and 4/9 were covered on 4/10. On the flip side, they were three wins in a row with a two loss streak starting on 4/10. Yes?

[Griffin]

Every game is a one unit bet. When you lose you cover with what you need to make up the loss, plus the one unit you should win on that game as well. It gets to big bets fast but, and it's a big but, if you have confidence in the system you know you'll cover. I've got two full years of data so far -- for MLB that's almost 10,000 data points -- and I'm pretty confident.

[RudyRuetigger]

Ok, and how far back have you backtested this fool proof method?

[Griffin]

2-1/2 full MLB seasons, and 2 NBA seasons. The patterns hold equally well in both (and yes, the second NBA season was last year's abbreviated one and there's no noticeable difference.

[hels]

You need to go back at least 10 seasons (the more the better). 2 seasons is nothing as you'll continuously change the algorithm to make it work.

There are many who have attempted before and many will attempt again. You can't realistically believe you have stumbled upon a winning formula. People have written programs that search for repeating trends but the fact of the matter is that sports are unpredictable.

Run your system for every season back to 2000 and report back. You'll find that you'd have gone bankrupt a few times.