[princecharles]

I'll admit I've been guilty of this before,
maybe someone can shed some insight into the following thought process/behavior.

It's always somwhat curious to me when a player wants to hedge out of
the last leg of a parlay, when that leg goes off much later than the rest of the already won card.
For example, let's say the last leg of a five teamer is MNF, and all the other legs won on Sunday.

Why make that bet part of the parlay to begin with?
As most parlay players already will tell you if it comes down to the last leg, they will hedge to 'lock' in a profit.

I know it's a mind game to risk little and hold a big possible payday, but absent concurrent games it's just better to leave that last play off the card, since the buy back will almost always be -EV, unless the line has moved drastically in your favor.

One exception I will agree with would be to make the last leg a heavy ML favorite, then you can hedge back taking the dog w/ the points, and be in the coveted win or win/middle catbird seat.

So what gives boys?

[Art Vandeleigh]

For most people, there's lots of psychology involved with gambling.

Actually, there's really no such thing as gambling, the only reality is expected value. But I digress.

Anyway. most people are pretty brave when the money is far away, i.e. yeah, I'll plunk down $20 on that 6 team parlay to win $1000.

But in those few times where the first 5 games are won, and the money is now not far away, but oh so close to grabbing and holding on to, the braveness you feel when you make the parlay gives way to greed, give me some, give me some, give me some, before it all gets huffed and puffed and blown away with this last game losing.

Of course you are correct, there is no logic in playing the last game on the parlay if all you're going to do is hedge out, it's a very -EV strategy. But if you read this forum long enough, it's what almost everyone does automatically, hedge out.

[v1y]

if i've got the choice in front of me of 2800 or -200, and 2200 and 1200... yea...

there's just no point in taking the risk.

/had a 1800 parlay lose last saturday on its last leg.

[princecharles]

For most people, there's lots of psychology involved with gambling.

Actually, there's really no such thing as gambling, the only reality is expected value. But I digress.

Anyway. most people are pretty brave when the money is far away, i.e. yeah, I'll plunk down $20 on that 6 team parlay to win $1000.

But in those few times where the first 5 games are won, and the money is now not far away, but oh so close to grabbing and holding on to, the braveness you feel when you make the parlay gives way to greed, give me some, give me some, give me some, before it all gets huffed and puffed and blown away with this last game losing.

Of course you are correct, there is no logic in playing the last game on the parlay if all you're going to do is hedge out, it's a very -EV strategy. But if you read this forum long enough, it's what almost everyone does automatically, hedge out.

Beautifully put, 'Art'.
Although you rephrase basically what I was getting at, it's a pleasure to read your post, as you seem to 'get it' as do I the complex and at times sadistic psychology which powers this whole ship.

How myopic to live in certitude with the notion this is all about Kelly, spreadsheets, and tenth of a percent perceived advantages.

[Bostongambler]

Very well written Art/.