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  • 44 Mag
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 10-14-13
    • 34490

    #176
    BOL today Mike !!!!
    Comment
    • SEAHAWKHARRY
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 11-29-07
      • 26068

      #177
      Mike you are Golden I tailed the over and the AZ play chargers down to 4 too late on that train Good Luck to one of the Best on Here
      Comment
      • pimike
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 03-23-08
        • 37139

        #178
        Originally posted by 44 Mag
        BOL today Mike !!!!
        Thanks Mag and Harry.
        Comment
        • RonT73
          SBR Sharp
          • 11-03-19
          • 498

          #179
          On all this with you Mike. Gonna ride Denver down the tubes. Bet it when you posted the plays.
          Comment
          • pimike
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 03-23-08
            • 37139

            #180
            Originally posted by RonT73
            On all this with you Mike. Gonna ride Denver down the tubes. Bet it when you posted the plays.
            Been a tough week. Key injuries in game on Thanksgiving now this.

            What can I do. Lol
            Comment
            • KVB
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 05-29-14
              • 74817

              #181
              Originally posted by pimike
              Been a tough week. Key injuries in game on Thanksgiving now this.

              What can I do. Lol
              Seriously. And I think it's only going to get worse as we move forward.

              I can't believe the changes COVID forces on us weekly.

              It's almost unworkable.
              Comment
              • pimike
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 03-23-08
                • 37139

                #182
                Originally posted by KVB
                Seriously. And I think it's only going to get worse as we move forward.

                I can't believe the changes COVID forces on us weekly.

                It's almost unworkable.
                Agree

                Wouldn’t be surprised the cancel sports agin.
                Comment
                • KVB
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 05-29-14
                  • 74817

                  #183
                  Originally posted by pimike
                  Agree

                  Wouldn’t be surprised the cancel sports agin.
                  I'm losing half my triggers by Saturday in the cylcical Funds. There's no sturcture to the markets.

                  I don't see how Hoops is going to be much better.

                  Comment
                  • Vene1616
                    SBR MVP
                    • 09-20-20
                    • 1027

                    #184
                    Can the Chargers please just go for 2 every time they score a TD
                    Comment
                    • Vene1616
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-20-20
                      • 1027

                      #185
                      Originally posted by pimike
                      Agree

                      Wouldn’t be surprised the cancel sports agin.
                      Are games going to be played at SoFi? It's outside of Santa Clara county correct? So the 49ers could use it, in theory?
                      Comment
                      • Allure
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 08-18-10
                        • 7606

                        #186
                        Cleveland is just so bad. How do they have a winning record ffs?
                        Comment
                        • pavyracer
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 04-12-07
                          • 82718

                          #187
                          Tough day today pimike. Most of the games were flip coins to cover or not cover the spread.

                          Get them back next week.
                          Comment
                          • kmarinouofm
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 01-26-09
                            • 8437

                            #188
                            I dont know what makes me wanna puke more that chargers loss or the cardinals loss

                            All three early games should of hit
                            Comment
                            • Hot Jerry
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 08-16-13
                              • 5545

                              #189
                              Originally posted by Allure
                              Cleveland is just so bad. How do they have a winning record ffs?
                              - they going to playoff !!
                              Comment
                              • pimike
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 03-23-08
                                • 37139

                                #190
                                Originally posted by kmarinouofm
                                I dont know what makes me wanna puke more that chargers loss or the cardinals loss

                                All three early games should of hit
                                Yep

                                Chargers have the worse coach in NFL. This guy actually had the field goal team coming out with 3 seconds left.

                                Arizona missing winning field goal

                                1-2 early games.

                                Looking at a potential 2nd half play with Tampa vs Chiefs.
                                Comment
                                • pimike
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 03-23-08
                                  • 37139

                                  #191
                                  Passing on 2nd half.
                                  Comment
                                  • ARCHIVADO98
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 09-27-20
                                    • 894

                                    #192
                                    up a lot why push it

                                    GOOD DECISION SIR
                                    Comment
                                    • Pick'nParlays
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-22-08
                                      • 3134

                                      #193
                                      We got Zaned
                                      Comment
                                      • Hot Jerry
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 08-16-13
                                        • 5545

                                        #194
                                        What are u talking about - winning ???? When and where ?? Wouldnt be for bad luck wouldnt have luck at all . Winning , whats that ??
                                        Comment
                                        • aveeno
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 11-27-20
                                          • 284

                                          #195
                                          Looking back at this thread and the posted teams it is amazing how many brutally close calls and bad breaks there are and yet overall the thread has a positive ROI. I know, I know...everyone can say the same thing regarding their gambling choices being so close but I don't remember a time seeing so many plays that were on the "right side" that ended up losing. For example, Chubbs stepping out of bounds.

                                          Glad I found this thread. Keep up the awesome work PIMIKE and thanks for sharing your thoughts/picks. It is very much appreciated.
                                          Comment
                                          • KVB
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 05-29-14
                                            • 74817

                                            #196
                                            Originally posted by aveeno
                                            Looking back at this thread and the posted teams it is amazing how many brutally close calls and bad breaks there are and yet overall the thread has a positive ROI. I know, I know...everyone can say the same thing regarding their gambling choices being so close but I don't remember a time seeing so many plays that were on the "right side" that ended up losing. For example, Chubbs stepping out of bounds.

                                            Glad I found this thread. Keep up the awesome work PIMIKE and thanks for sharing your thoughts/picks. It is very much appreciated.
                                            It's all noise aveeno, mike, like a few of us, knows what he's doing, that's why he's overcoming the noise, even if it's just positive variance.

                                            You can not judge whether or not a play was the "right side" once the game has started. That input isn't relevant anymore. It's like when posters say the line was "sharp" after the final score is in because it pushed or had the margin exactly. That's not the purpose of the line.

                                            I hope that makes sense.
                                            Comment
                                            • 44 Mag
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 10-14-13
                                              • 34490

                                              #197
                                              Originally posted by aveeno
                                              Looking back at this thread and the posted teams it is amazing how many brutally close calls and bad breaks there are and yet overall the thread has a positive ROI. I know, I know...everyone can say the same thing regarding their gambling choices being so close but I don't remember a time seeing so many plays that were on the "right side" that ended up losing. For example, Chubbs stepping out of bounds.

                                              Glad I found this thread. Keep up the awesome work PIMIKE and thanks for sharing your thoughts/picks. It is very much appreciated.
                                              The "right side" is winning, and nobody knows more about that than Mike. He is one of the best, if not the best on here. You've been here what??? 3 days now??? We all appreciate the input. BOL on future endeavors.
                                              Glad to have you with us. PS; never go by me. Just a scrub on here.
                                              Comment
                                              • KVB
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 05-29-14
                                                • 74817

                                                #198
                                                Deciding the "right side" of a bet based on outcome is poor strategy.

                                                Mainly because it's the wrong way to approach probability based decision making with a comparison to offered odds, all of which has variance.

                                                That's the best I can put it.

                                                Here's an example.

                                                If two bettors bet a coin flip head to head, multipole times, and one puts up $1 while the other puts up $1.01 on each flip, the bettor who stands to win the $1.01 is on the right side, every time, assuming profit is the goal.

                                                No matter where an individual flip lands, the right side is the one that pays the extra penny in the 50-50 odds.

                                                He could put up his $1 against the other guy's $1.01 and lose 10 times in a row, he is still betting the right side, every time.

                                                Don't let variance, which is a calculable mathematical fact, change that.
                                                Comment
                                                • pimike
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 03-23-08
                                                  • 37139

                                                  #199
                                                  Originally posted by aveeno
                                                  Looking back at this thread and the posted teams it is amazing how many brutally close calls and bad breaks there are and yet overall the thread has a positive ROI. I know, I know...everyone can say the same thing regarding their gambling choices being so close but I don't remember a time seeing so many plays that were on the "right side" that ended up losing. For example, Chubbs stepping out of bounds.

                                                  Glad I found this thread. Keep up the awesome work PIMIKE and thanks for sharing your thoughts/picks. It is very much appreciated.
                                                  Appreciate you noticing.. 5 straight weeks of profit right here in this thread. Yet we get those that like to dwell on the one bad week.

                                                  Lol


                                                  Again thanks for the kind write up!

                                                  Comment
                                                  • pimike
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 03-23-08
                                                    • 37139

                                                    #200
                                                    Monday Night Football

                                                    Ok let’s try to start another 5 + weeks of profits.


                                                    Tonight Monday night we have the Seahawks vs Eagles.

                                                    Eagles have so much talent and had many injuries. However they are
                                                    healthy now more than they have been. Problem is they cant seem to get out of their own way. Lol

                                                    Now as for Seattle they don’t have a good defense plus they are traveling across country on the road. Seattle is clearly the better team.no question. However Philly remembers them beating them last year in the playoffs and this is a revenge factor here.

                                                    Seriously, the book is giving me a td here tonight with a home team healthy?

                                                    I’ll take that!

                                                    EAGLES + 7 -133 BAS. Yes I bought 6.5 to 7

                                                    Good luck whatever you decide.

                                                    I will tell you, it looks like I might have one of my biggest plays coming this next week. We shall see, Covid -19 aka the China Virus could change everything, so I have to be careful and not post so early.

                                                    Comment
                                                    • carolinakid
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 01-12-11
                                                      • 19106

                                                      #201
                                                      GL TONITE (ck)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • KVB
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 05-29-14
                                                        • 74817

                                                        #202
                                                        Originally posted by pimike
                                                        ...EAGLES + 7 -133 BAS. Yes I bought 6.5 to 7...
                                                        Good Luck Mike!!

                                                        I'm on Philly +5, bought on the 25th.

                                                        Hopefully we both hit.

                                                        Comment
                                                        • QuantumLeap
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 08-22-08
                                                          • 6878

                                                          #203
                                                          Originally posted by pimike
                                                          Ok let’s try to start another 5 + weeks of profits.


                                                          Tonight Monday night we have the Seahawks vs Eagles.

                                                          Eagles have so much talent and had many injuries. However they are
                                                          healthy now more than they have been. Problem is they cant seem to get out of their own way. Lol

                                                          Now as for Seattle they don’t have a good defense plus they are traveling across country on the road. Seattle is clearly the better team.no question. However Philly remembers them beating them last year in the playoffs and this is a revenge factor here.

                                                          Seriously, the book is giving me a td here tonight with a home team healthy?

                                                          I’ll take that!

                                                          EAGLES + 7 -133 BAS. Yes I bought 6.5 to 7

                                                          Good luck whatever you decide.

                                                          I will tell you, it looks like I might have one of my biggest plays coming this next week. We shall see, Covid -19 aka the China Virus could change everything, so I have to be careful and not post so early.

                                                          Yes!! Adding another 2 units.

                                                          Thanks Mike!

                                                          Comment
                                                          • jjgold
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 07-20-05
                                                            • 388179

                                                            #204
                                                            Mike you getting your plays from Walters??
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BIGDAY
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 02-17-10
                                                              • 48245

                                                              #205
                                                              Let’s cash!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • BigdaddyQH
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 07-13-09
                                                                • 19530

                                                                #206
                                                                Originally posted by KVB
                                                                I'm losing half my triggers by Saturday in the cylcical Funds. There's no sturcture to the markets.

                                                                I don't see how Hoops is going to be much better.

                                                                Chichens**t. We all knoe that you do not wager real money, so it really does not madder, does it? Do your wife a favor. Increase your life insurance policy, if you can even get one with your mental history.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • BeatTheJerk
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 08-19-07
                                                                  • 31794

                                                                  #207
                                                                  Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
                                                                  Chichens**t. We all knoe that you do not wager real money, so it really does not madder, does it? Do your wife a favor. Increase your life insurance policy, if you can even get one with your mental history.
                                                                  ”I got heat for niggas’ like you” ~ Jody
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • 44 Mag
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 10-14-13
                                                                    • 34490

                                                                    #208
                                                                    Originally posted by KVB
                                                                    Deciding the "right side" of a bet based on outcome is poor strategy.

                                                                    Mainly because it's the wrong way to approach probability based decision making with a comparison to offered odds, all of which has variance.

                                                                    That's the best I can put it.

                                                                    Here's an example.

                                                                    If two bettors bet a coin flip head to head, multipole times, and one puts up $1 while the other puts up $1.01 on each flip, the bettor who stands to win the $1.01 is on the right side, every time, assuming profit is the goal.

                                                                    No matter where an individual flip lands, the right side is the one that pays the extra penny in the 50-50 odds.

                                                                    He could put up his $1 against the other guy's $1.01 and lose 10 times in a row, he is still betting the right side, every time.

                                                                    Don't let variance, which is a calculable mathematical fact, change that.

                                                                    So, I guess losing can be calculated?? Who would want to????
                                                                    Deciding the "right side" of a bet based on outcome
                                                                    is poor strategy.

                                                                    I wish I knew the outcome before wagering

                                                                    So losing is ok, based on your strategy. Good Lord.....

                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • KVB
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 05-29-14
                                                                      • 74817

                                                                      #209
                                                                      Originally posted by 44 Mag
                                                                      ...So losing is ok, based on your strategy. Good Lord...
                                                                      Of course it's ok.

                                                                      It's unrealistic to think you will win every bet you make.

                                                                      I make 100's of +EV bets a year, I would not expect to win them all.

                                                                      That would be a ridiculous expectation and mathematically impossible.

                                                                      Read my example again, you have to account for price.

                                                                      The subject is the right and wrong side of the bet, not whether or not you win or lose the bet. Read my example again.
                                                                      Last edited by KVB; 11-30-20, 06:40 PM.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • KVB
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 05-29-14
                                                                        • 74817

                                                                        #210
                                                                        Originally posted by 44 Mag
                                                                        The "right side" is winning...
                                                                        I will admit, I posted my example because I read this wrong.

                                                                        I read this as you saying the right side is the winning side, like the poster before you.

                                                                        But that's not what you said, you said what I said, that Mike knows what he's doing.

                                                                        Regardless, my example with a coin flip paying + odds is every bit the explanation necessary for those who don't understand this very essence of sports betting.
                                                                        Comment
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