1. #1
    Parligod
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    Week 3: 2-Team Teasers - thoughts?

    Just looking at the lines right now. I try to place my own estimates prior to looking at lines to minimize any bias. Two Teamers seem like the only real viable options as the odds start dropping a lot after that so I'm keeping it simple and want to use some variation of the following:

    1. St. Louis +9 at Chicago = Tease to +15.
    - I'm liking the Rams more this season and think their coach will help turn around the organization. Chicago seems just riddled with problems this year and can't seem to get their chemistry together. Add in that their QB Cutler has essentially lost a lot of his leadership ability and some on the team are downright pissed at him. I don't think they're a cohesive unit right now and that means lack of focus. After coming off 7 sacks and 4 interceptions, I think Cutler will slow it down to play safe, meaning a lower-scoring game which is great for a 15-point cushion.

    2. San Francisco -7 at Minnesota = Tease to -1.
    - 49ers are clearly the better team here (best in the NFL?). I think they'll continue rolling. Only thing I don't like here is that teasing to -1 basically means they have to cover by 3. Still, they dominated 2 strong teams (Packers by 8 in GB and Detroit by 8 at home) and I don't see them slacking coming into Minny.

    3. New Orleans -7.5 v. KC = Tease to -1.5
    - Both teams are the bottom half of NFL teams including the Saints. The delay with signing Brees shows and the loss of players - or more important losing their coach for the season - from the Bounty Scandal show that they face an uphill battle this year. This game at home is a must-win for the Saints. For the Chiefs its feels like just another game in what I suspect is going to be a horrid season. Both have horrible defense but at least the Saints can score. And that Dome gets awful loud - a true 12th man.

    4. Atl. +3.5 at SD = Tease to +9.5
    - Numbers work great here so Chargers have to win by 10. Falcons have dominated twice (KC is a horrid team though) and so have the Chargers, but the Chargers have only been beating up on weak teams (OAK and TENN). Oakland got stomped by Miami, and Chris Johnson (17 yards on 8 carries), when asked whats wrong with the Titans offense - simply said he doesn't even know where to start. The Falcons got Peyton Manning off his game tonight (3 interceptions 1st quarter through creative defensive schemes) and kept a solid lead through the entire game vs. a solid Denver team. It got close the 4th quarter mainly because the Falcons were playing it safe. Falcons can easily win outright in San Diego.

    5. Seattle +3.5 v. GB = Tease to 9.5
    - loooove this teaser here because the Packers have to win by 10 in Seattle's home turf. Three factors here influence the appeal: (1) Packers are overrated (*slightly); (2) Seattle is underrated; and (3) Seattle plays at home. The Cowboys had trouble against Seattle this week getting their offense going with a respectable running game. Packers will have even more issues on the run and I see a lower scoring game here, which in turn favors Seattle. I don't see Seattle winning outright, but I think they'll keep it close enough.

    6. AZ +4 v Philly = Tease to +10
    - Don't like the tease hitting 10 (risky to hit a tie and kill the teaser), nor the unpredictability of the Eagles but credit should be given to AZ they had a great game vs. Seattle (who went on to dominate the Cowboys) then went and beat the Patriots IN New England. Cardinals may be the dark horse of the season and if there's a good ML it might be a good single bet. Playing at home and taking +4 points clinches the decision.

    Let me know your thoughts. Cheers.
    Last edited by Parligod; 09-18-12 at 04:10 AM.

  2. #2
    heywally
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    Still working on my teasers ....

    #1 - also like St. Louis +15. Cutler has dug himself a hole with some important teammates, forte is out and the Bear's are coming off of a tough and physical game. St. Louis has not sucked. Dangers include Bears bounce back factor/home game, Hester on returns, Cutler's streakiness (he can have a big game at any time).

    #2 - S.F. has looked like the best team after 2 games and they are hard nosed and play mostly mistake-free which is a key. But they are coming off of two tough and physical games and are traveling to a foreign land/stadium and Minn. has not sucked. No strong opinion but I wouldn't go S.F. here.

    #3 - You have to like N.O. here and assume that they won't be the key teaser breaker again. Must win game for them at home, against a team that hasn't shown anything.

    #4 - Caveat - latent Charger's fan am I, though not a fan of Norv. RE: Tenn, Chris Johnson should look at himself. I guess you have to like (or love) the Falcons with the 9.5 here (I'd try for 10, maybe) but -- and yes, the opponents have not been strong -- the Charger's D has looked much different (better) this year and they are playing aggressively. Don't know if they can stop a good running game but Ryan does not terrify me. River's has been playing mistake-free so far and that has been a key. But, the Charger's oline is probably questionable and so is Norv's ability to fine tune an offensive game plan for a particular opponent (Atlanta). The Charger's Kaeding is one of the weaker KO guys in term of distance, so there are run- backs. Ryan Matthews may play this week but I don't know if that is a good thing. The Charger's discovered last week that they have a pair of pretty good power runners in McClain and Battle but I don't know if Norv will take advantage of that. Anyway, Atlanta +9.5 or 10 probably sounds good.

    #5 - Not a good feel for this one though I sure wouldn't bet the Pack via a teaser, at the Hawk's stadium

    #6 - Vick too much of a wildcard for me and I don't like the Card's offense - no clue (which might be the case re my other comments)

    GL

  3. #3
    Deol
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    Tease CHI down, even with no Forte I think they respond with an easy W.
    Tease SF down seems very logical and can't really see a good reason not too.
    Wouldn't touch the NO game, both teams terrible, KC could win with a big running game.
    Tease ATL, they should be able to keep it within 10 if not win (or tease the Under)
    Tease SEA if you can get to +10, they almost always show up at home.
    I'd tease CLE before teasing ARI, PHI is random, there due for a blowout win or a close loss, too risky.
    Last edited by Deol; 09-18-12 at 11:26 PM.

  4. #4
    Parligod
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    Thanks for thoughts. Yeah Chicago game isn't my favorite a lot depends on which Cutler shows up. When he's good they do well but when he sucks he's like "I'm allin-sucking." Lot of variables. I was thinking of teasing 49ers + Falcons and 49ers + Seahawks. I also still love the Cards (getting +4 at home is a GIFT) and I can't see KC pulling out a win in the Saints dome.

  5. #5
    dodger33
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    Now that Houston is getting points i think anything at +7.5 or above is money

  6. #6
    aggieshawn
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    Just bet San Fran.

  7. #7
    GunShard
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    I would just tease Bears and 49ers. They are good on both sides of the ball, offense and defense.

    The Saints have a Bottom 5 defense in the league. Ignore the Saints for the rest of the season, just bet their Overs.

    I can't bet against an elite QB, no play from me on that Packers vs Seahawks game.

  8. #8
    Deol
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    Teaser #1 (6pts): CHI-1 and SF-1 (5*)
    Teaser #2 (6pts): CLE+9 and DAL-1 (5*)
    Teaser #3 (6.5pts): DET+3.5 and CIN +10 (2*)
    Teaser #4 (6.5 pts): CAR+7.5 and ARI+10.5 (2*)
    Teaser #5 (6.5 pts): BAL+3.5 and OAK+10.5 (2*)
    Teaser #6 (6pts): DEN+8 and ATL+9 (2*)
    Fun Parlay: CLE-2, SF-2.5, CHI -2.5, DEN ML (~+950) (1*)

  9. #9
    2daBank
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    yes kc is horrid but with a mediocre d and shit coach in spagnola cordinating the d kc should run for 250 on saints, saints prob still win but not sure it easy....Lambs + more than 2 tds is just fine.. im a lot higher on sd than most, mostly cause their d especially front 7 are straight getting after it, and if i know 1 thing it ryan does not respond well to pressure which he will see a ton of in this one,,after getting a road win under their belts and huge mnf win i think this a bad spot to play atl, and although a charger fan says mathews being back not good i strongly disagree and if i saw anything in that atl/den gm to say negative bout that d atl was playing (which was quite genius for that gm) is that they can be had on the ground and mathews will be a nightmare for them imho...think this a gm atl gets beaten, i mean it real hard to argue with atl +9.5 but personally like sd-3 quite a bit...

  10. #10
    sweep
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  11. #11
    RawBillyIce
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    Car/Arz best!

  12. #12
    RawBillyIce
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    Or car/ car/nyg over

  13. #13
    heywally
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    I still like N.O. on the tease, in spite of their D so far. This is an absolute must win for them at home, they have been scoring points, their D should at least show up for this one and can focus on stopping the run as if their jobs depended on it. K.C. has also performed below expectations so far.

    I actually can't find a lot I like this week on the teasers but am going with (in several 2 item combinations)

    - Atlanta +10 (I know the Chargers too well but am taking a chance on Atlanta with a short week and traveling to a foreign land - 10 points!)
    - N.O. -2
    - Giants/Panthers Over 43.5 (yes, it's a Thurs night game but the Giants have to throw and the Panthers will too; normally I lean to finding unders though)

    I'm a small timer who hasn't bet in years, trying it again this year but very small because ... it's the NFL and hey, it's gambling.
    Last edited by heywally; 09-19-12 at 07:43 AM.

  14. #14
    keyboarding
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    Quote Originally Posted by heywally View Post
    I still like N.O. on the tease, in spite of their D so far. This is an absolute must win for them at home, they have been scoring points, their D should at least show up for this one and can focus on stopping the run as if their jobs depended on it. K.C. has also performed below expectations so far.

    I actually can't find a lot I like this week on the teasers but am going with (in several 2 item combinations)

    - Atlanta +10 (I know the Chargers too well but am taking a chance on Atlanta with a short week and traveling to a foreign land - 10 points!)
    - N.O. -2
    - Giants/Panthers Over 43.5 (yes, it's a Thurs night game but the Giants have to throw and the Panthers will too; normally I lean to finding unders though)

    I'm a small timer who hasn't bet in years, trying it again this year but very small because ... it's the NFL and hey, it's gambling.
    Good luck, pal.

  15. #15
    Parligod
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    Yeah after reading more I'd take Saints off the board especially since the line moved further out. They can't stop anything right now on D and that worries me. Chicago game also has many variables on both ends. Top selections would be two-team-teaser combos in the following order: (1) 49ers to -1; (2) Cardinals to +10; (3) Seahawks to +9.5; and (4) Falcons to +9. Not sure if I'm playing any this week we'll see.

  16. #16
    heywally
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    Just to reiterate my main premises on the K.C/N.O. game, because I like N.0. -2 so much and others don't

    - must win for N.O. at home; they are embarrassed
    - Brees and Co. still putting up points
    - K.C. is a running team and N.O. can focus their so far weak defense on stopping that. If there is any ability at all on that side of the ball, they will show it in this game
    - K.C. has underachieved in 2 games so far

    GL

  17. #17
    jjgold
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    All teasers look good before game starts

    always a blowout that kills the teasers

    Best of luck Heyhead

  18. #18
    Goat Milk
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    never put the rams or cardinals in a teaser

    never put a team that's capable of getting blown out in a teaser (even if their capable of winning straight up)

  19. #19
    heywally
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    Thanks jjgold .... actually, nothing ever looks good to me before the game starts, in the NFL. "Shouldn't" have to worry about a K.C. blowout of N.O. here.

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