[Regul8er]

Week 11 the saints play at Oakland....but due to planning, I would have the patriots at hone vs the colts (if I get that far). Over 50% of my.league won't be so lucky.....and most have taken Houston and nyg too so nothing easy week 11

[robmpink]

Reg, u want to get together, u know?

[yisman]

Tell me a better week to use the saints prior to week 15, since.planning is not necessary?

If you were willing to use that at Tampa, you could just as well use them against the Eagles or the Raiders. Would I use them those weeks? I probably wouldn't want to, just like I said this week. Dangerous picks.

Where did I say planning is not necessary?

I have done these for 5 years, never less then 1800 people, and the highest total going undefeated was 7!!! These 7 didn't get here making the popular pick every week, trust me on that.

Err, I didn't say to make the popular pick every week. I'm not sure what you said has to do with anything. I'm sure those people did take at least one "popular pick".

Saints won by 7....vikes won by 7. Both picks worked out exactly fine, expect I may be able to use the vikes again, while the saints are untouchable until week 15

Did you watch the games?!?!?!??!?!? Perfectly fine? The Bucs had the ball 1st and goal and they had the game tying TD. Inches decided the outcome.

The Bucs/Saints game was a high stress game. It was back and forth the whole way. Not comparable to the Vikings game.

[Regul8er]

Yisman.....ya I'm being dumb. Saints was much more stressful, thanks to the refs, but don't we always say that? I'm just happy to get through, and do so in a way that puts me in great shape

[Regul8er]

I have still yet to touch Chicago, Green Bay or New England.

With that said, Chicago is the obvious choice this week. Of 193 remaining, only 64 have not used Chicago yet. Also, 30 of those haven't taken Green Bay yet, and 20 of those have not taken GB or NE.....so the distribution will be spread. I'm assuming only 30 or so will take the Bears.....so I will get on them very, very cheap.

Let 100 or so take GB, along with the 47 who already have, and I'll get on them EXTREMELY cheap the next week at home vs the struggling Cardinals.

My two concerns with Chicago was 1) Cutler's status, and 2) Playing after a Monday Night game. Both can be put to rest though. Cutler seems fine, and doesn't even appear on an injury report anywhere, which is surprising but great news. Chicago played Dallas Monday Night week 4, and came back to beat the Jags 41-3 the next week, so the short week clearly doesn't effect these guys.

[RMStanley]

Mates, if the Bucs pull the upset tonight that will get the Sportsbook $100,000 pool down to only 760 remaining entries, of which yours truly owns THREE.

I have two on the Packers and one on the Bears this weekend.

[yisman]

You're getting closer. Wasn't even competitive.

[Optional]

Has to be a plant from sportsbook. Knew he was going to win when he started the thread.
























;-)

[cthurman79]

Taking Green Bay is the smart move. The Jags have zero chance of winning this game. The Bears can lose. If Cutler gets reinjured then you have Jason "Can't Move the Ball" Campbell there. And the Panthers want a win.

[Regul8er]

I'll take my chances with Chicago this week, and Green Bay next week.

My thought process is: is there a better pick week 9 then Chicago this week, and the answer is no. I have already used Houston, so can't take them against Buffalo. The next options are Baltimore @ Cleveland (very, very shaky game). Washington vs Carolina (Chicago is better then the Skins, so why I take the Skins?) Detroit @ Jacksonville (I'm not touching Detroit until they prove they can play a full game)

Also, we can't take Thursday games, so that rules out San Diego vs Kansas City.

Yisman.....any thoughts here. Realy, Im curious to hear.

[Regul8er]

I guess Seattle isn't a bad option at home vs Minnesota.....but Im not quite sold on them yet. I'll keep an eye on Seattle at home vs Zona and Rams later in the year.

[yisman]

I'll take my chances with Chicago this week, and Green Bay next week.

My thought process is: is there a better pick week 9 then Chicago this week, and the answer is no. I have already used Houston, so can't take them against Buffalo. The next options are Baltimore @ Cleveland (very, very shaky game). Washington vs Carolina (Chicago is better then the Skins, so why I take the Skins?) Detroit @ Jacksonville (I'm not touching Detroit until they prove they can play a full game)

Also, we can't take Thursday games, so that rules out San Diego vs Kansas City.

Yisman.....any thoughts here. Realy, Im curious to hear.

I was originally taking GB this week, but when you look at it that way, maybe you're right.

The games you posted for week 9 are no good. Maybe Chicago at Tennessee is worth a look?

It has to be Chicago or Green Bay this week.

Since Green Bay has Arizona next week, the play should be Chicago and then Green Bay.

The only good Week 9 options are:

San Diego, Houston, and Green Bay

Since you can't pick the first two, it has to be the third, meaning Chicago Week 8.

[Regul8er]

Thanks. Ya I went about it as process of elimination, and came to that conclusion.

I know I went against the odds and recommendations last week taking New Orleans, but I've allowed myself to be in this position by not choosing NE, Chicago or GB. I could have taken Minny like you suggested, and not sweat so much.

[Regul8er]

WHEW.....I've been living on the edge now for 3 weeks straight. Hopefully GB cleans things up next week and games advantage of a beaten up Cardinals coming off a short week.

[RMStanley]

I'm leaning towards SD over KC with at least two of my picks. Risky but want to try and save Houston for later when they try to clinch home field.

If they fire Norvell I might put all 3 on SD as I think the Chargers would be thrilled to finally be playing for a coach without the complexion of a pepperoni pizza.

[Regul8er]

Stanley.....ya I would feel pretty confident in the Chargers. Turner and Rivers are guys that come through when you count them out.
Plus the Chiefs are absolutely terrible in every sense of the word. I wouldn't put all 3 though, because it's the NFL and you never know what can happen.

I can't pick Thursday night games in mine......so I will be on GB. Only 20 of the remaining 178 can take GB, so I will be on them extremely cheap. There will be a majority of people in mine having to take favorites of less then 5 points.

[yisman]

what do you mean by extremely cheap?

[Regul8er]

I would rather be on Green Bay with 20 people (10% of remaining entrees), then the 121 that were on them this week (68% of remaing entrees)

This way the majority of people will be settling on Seattle, Baltimore, Detroit, New Orleans, Washington or someone else.

This is because of the 178 left, 115 will have to take someone other then GB, HOU, ATL. What a great spot to be in!

[Regul8er]

I use the term cheap when Im able to jump on a top team heavily favored when the high majority of people won't be on that game with me.
If I can get to Week 11, the same will happen if I take New England.

[RMStanley]

Mates, the Sportsbook $100,000 contest is now down to 662 remaining Survivors (of which I have 3 active entrants). That is down from an original tally of 13,500.

Right now (entering Week 9) there are:

8 players with more remaining entries than me (4 or more)
18 players with equal remaining entries to me (3)

Early week 9 thoughts - I'm SHOCKED by how many people have picked the Chargers on Thursday night over Kansas City. San Diego looks like a team that may be actively trying to get their coach fired right now - and if Cassel is the starter for KC he is definitely more likely to put together a winning performance than Pretty Boy Quinn would be. This could be a huge game for the remainder of our contest. I know that a few days ago I posted that I was leaning towards San Diego but that was before they lost to Cleveland and DIDN'T fire Norvell. Can't see how they're an option here when I have both Houston or Green Bay available for each one of my picks.

Anybody else seeing heavy activity on the Chargers in their (relatively) small money Survivor contests?

So far 15 players have picked Sd, 6 have picked the Texans, and 1 is on Denver - Obviously the pool has only been open for a few hours. I would expect Houston to pass San Diego by Saturday night.

[RMStanley]

Week 11 the saints play at Oakland....but due to planning, I would have the patriots at hone vs the colts (if I get that far). Over 50% of my.league won't be so lucky.....and most have taken Houston and nyg too so nothing easy week 11

I'd counter this (to a certain extent) by saying that things change. What if Arizona continues to suck due to injury? Atlanta hosting Arizona in week 11 is suddenly as attractive a play as New England hosting the young and pesky Colts.

Don't put yourself at risk now by planning on a future game that may not even be that not even be that attractive by the time you reach it.

Other Week 11 options: Broncos over Chargers, Bengals over Chiefs, Cowboys over Browns, Saints over Raiders.

I'd argue that some of those games are less risky to me than the extremely overrated Patriots outside with no rushing game against the young and physical Colts.

[RMStanley]

Mates, I've officially entered my Week 9 selections.

I'm rolling with Houston, Green Bay, and *shudder* San Diego - three separate picks for each of my three remaining entries.

If my San Diego entry survives, I'll still have Houston, San Francisco, Atlanta, and Denver (4 of the top 6 teams in the NFL in my opinion) available for use in following weeks on that ticket.

[Regul8er]

You should be pretty safe......but I'm sure 90+% of entrants felt that way when they lost, haha.

These things are cruel. Goodluck!

Would be happy if the Packers can get off to a nice quick 1st half lead.

[Regul8er]

RM...Ive already used Dallas and New Orleans.
Denver over SD and Cincy over KC (on the road) are extremely risky in my opinion in comparison to NE at home vs Indy. Sure the Colts are pesky, but they haven't 360'd completely from last year, to the point where I can see them winning at Foxboro.

IMO these pools have alot to do with future planning. I've never lasted an entire season, but I've gotten pretty close before using this strategy.

[Regul8er]

RM.....you got through with one of your entrees! Breathe a little easier Sunday afternoon.

[playersonly69]

I am taking Dallas in Week 11 against Cleveland. In week 14, I am taking San Fran.



This week I took Houston,



And I am saving New Orleans for later in the season when they play the Yuccaneers in New Orleans.



In week 10, I am taking Baltimore at home against Oakland.
In week 11, I am taking Dallas at home against Cleveland
In week 12, I am taking Bears at home against Minny
In week 13, I am ******! But if I get lucky I'll advance. I could use Atlanta, Buffalo or Detroit
In week 14, I am taking Ssan Fran against Miami
In week 15, I am taking New Orleans at home against Tampa Bay
In week 16, virtually everyone will take Denver at home against Cleveland
In week 17, I will take Pitt at home against Cleveland

[Regul8er]

playersonly......if you got to week 13, I dont think your screwed. Buffalo vs Jags is a pretty good game, considering the Bills will still be in the hunt. And by then Detroit may have flipped the switch. Your lined up picks for Weeks 12, 14 and 15 scare me more.

[Regul8er]

In terms of everyone being on Denver, I don't think thats true!

In my league, 23% of the league has already taken Denver, plus I'm sure good sized chunks will take Denver @ KC week 12 and Denver vs Tampa week 13.

[dodger33]

Getting down to almost serious time... Took sd last night! Don't need to sweat out the weekend.

[RMStanley]

Yeah there's no way many people will have Denver left by Week 15 or whenever that guys said. Denver is clearly a top 5 (I'd say a top 3 team) in the league right now. Great offense, defense, and special teams. Honest to God I'd say they're better than Houston and Atlanta. Maybe only San Fran is better on a neutral field.

Virtually NOBODY got eliminated this week - only onesies/twosies with the exception of 20 entries who had the Redskins (and 6 DNP's.... I can't get over the DNP's at this stage of the contest. How the penetrate can you not make an entry? Maybe they were storm victims in Joisey or something - if so God bless'm).

Obviously I still have 3 entries left and am torn by whether to pick "easy" games next week or mix up "easy" / "risky" to save better plays for the future.

[FuzzyBowls]

I am in the same situation having 3 entries in my pool. I am debating going all in with 3 entries on Steelers this week.

I could take SF or NE, but they are far too valuable down the road. Pitt is going to walk, and I feel like its wasting equity by taking a team like SF or NE. Taking an even lesser favourite like SEA also seems -EV.

I figure if I go ALL IN this week, it sets me up for future weeks splitting my picks up. This is what I have penciled in.

Week 10 - PIT x3
Week 11 - New x2, HOU
Week 12 - CHI, DEN, PHI
Week 13 - DET x2, SF
Week 14 - SEA x2 SF
Week 15 -MIAx2, HOU
Week 16 -TBAY x2,DEN,
Week 17 - Den, SEA, NO

If I don't go all in on PIT I would likely take SF or SEA and that would penetrate me over for week 13/14

[Regul8er]

Only 12 got bumped from mine this weekend, with 6 pending on the Saints. 178 down to 166.

Was hoping a few upsets would occur, but it just didnt work out that way.

Thinking about either Baltimore or Pittsburgh next week, but leaning towards Baltimore. I think Pittsburgh is a little bit safer, but look at the remaining schedules for both teams after week 10.

Baltimore - @ PIT, @ SD, vs Pitt, @ WAS, vs DEN, vs NYG, @ CIN
Pittsburgh - vs BAL, @ CLE, @ BAL, vs SD, @ DAL, vs CIN, vs CLE

Way more opportunities to play Pittsburgh later on. (Cleveland twice and home to Cincy). I don't think I'd feel comfortable taking Baltimore in any of those spots. If I'm gonna get through 17 weeks, I feel like Baltimore is a team that needs to be used, especially how dominate they are at home. Oakland just got absolutely torched by Martin, making me think Ray Rice is in for one heck of a favorable matchup!

[Regul8er]

Locked in Baltimore for the week. Hard to argue with the fact that they are 32-5 at home in the last 5 years. Not sure if that's more impressive, or the fact that their worst defeat over that period was a 13-9 loss to Pittsburgh in 08.

I knew the Ravens took care of business at home, but didn't realize they were this dominant. Coupled with McFadden and Goodson unavailable, I feel good about my decision. Still have NE and PITT in my back pocket.

What's everyone else on?

[Regul8er]

I hope everyone stayed clear of San Francisco. Nothing worse then getting knocked out of a Survivor pool on a tie....but thats the way it works.

Baltimore was a breeze.....and probably the last comfortable week Baltimore can be used.

[dodger33]

If Pitt goes down tonight most pools with probably go down in half