[Ganchrow]

There are people out there who seem to think that merely by taking a 20% bonus on their deposit at a -110 line set book with a 5x deposit and bonus rollover, they can expect to profit in the long run simply by running through their entire rollovers as quickly as possible.

Unfortunately, however, this is not the case.

Playing at a -110 line set book, the house edge is 4.55%.

If you deposit $100 and the book pays a 20% bonus you receive an additional $20.

If the rollover is 5x the initial deposit and bonus (at some books, such as Pinnacle, the rollover only applies to the initial deposit and not to the bonus), then you need to put in play 5 x ( $100 + $20 ) = $600 before you can withdraw the bonus (and at some books, such as Cascade, also the initial deposit).

If you bet $600 at a house edge of 4.55%, then you expect to lose $27.27. Because the house paid you a $20 bonus, this means your net loss is $7.27 or 7.27% of your initial deposit.

So a 20% bonus with a 5x rollover is not a profitable situation for those attepting to purely "bonus whore". But where is the breakeven point?

The following chart shows the bonus amount in the first column and the maxmimum rollover for pure "bonus whore" profitability at -110 books. This means that if the rollover is less than the number in the second column, then pure "bonus whoring" at that book can be expected to be profitable.

Bonus	Max Rollover
5%	1.05
10%	2.00
15%	2.87
20%	3.67
25%	4.40
30%	5.08
35%	5.70
40%	6.29
45%	6.83
50%	7.33
55%	7.81
60%	8.25
65%	8.67
70%	9.06
75%	9.43
80%	9.78
85%	10.11
90%	10.42
95%	10.72
100%	11.00

Some other things to consider:

• If you plan on wagering anyway, you may as well make a deposit at a bonus paying book. This is provided of course that you are already comfortable with its SBR rating.
• Playing only the rollover and withdrawing at a 20%/5x -110 book is equivalent to playing at a line set of about -102.5 with no bonus. If you can be profitable at a -102.5 line set, then go ahead and play as many 20%/5x books as you can.
• The figures above are for books offering a -110 line set. If you play at books where the house advantage is lower than 4.55%, or if you can find scalps, middles, or any other value bets with a lower house advantage, then you may have a profitable situation even for higher rollovers. As a rule, for profitability the following inequality must hold:
  

                             %bonus
  Expected % loss < -------------------------
                     (1 + %bonus) * rollover

  For example, if you can run through your entire rollover at a 20%/5x book with a leg of a scalp or middle with less than a 3.33% expected loss per side then you have a profitable bonus whoring opportunity.
• The above only strictly holds for a bettor placing small bets relative to his deposit+bonus. If the player wrere to increase his bet size he'd also increase his expected value (as his probability of going broke at the bonus book would increase, thereby his increasing his probability of never having to complete his rollover).

[AK]

here is the problem with your equation.

bonus whore scalpers like myself do not scalp opposite ways at -110

we find a line at 2 books that have something like this.

Houston ML +140 at book A
Cardinal ML -140 at Book B

You will find hedge bets all the time without the bonus.

[Ganchrow]

here is the problem with your equation.

...

There's no problem with any equation. You simply misread my post.

[jay88]

It all depends on your betting trends... Bonuses might be profitable for certain kind of players and reduce juice might be profitable for other players. In gambling there is no equation or system that works. I can assure you that.

[Ganchrow]

It all depends on your betting trends... Bonuses might be profitable for certain kind of players and reduce juice might be profitable for other players. In gambling there is no equation or system that works. I can assure you that.

So what's the error in my reasoning?

[AK]

Only risk you ever have being a bonus whore scalper is not getting paid by a bad book and thats it.

Alot of money to be made being a bonuswhore. This is a fact

[jay88]

So what's the error in my reasoning?

None as long as it works for you...

[AK]

I agree with your chart there but people that bonus whore do not lay -110 both ways!

You find the best lines for both teams and scalp them. You usually break even on the scalp but you make the bonus.

Deposit 1 dime into 2 books
1200 in each book with 20% cash bonus

bet 1200 to win 1200=2400
bet 1200 to win 1200 and lose =0

you make 400.00 doing nothing. It's really easy not to mention the great loyalty programs that are out there!

The main ingredients for being a successful whore is.. Money,Time, Knowledge of what books to use,Try for middles,Maximize the bonus offers, Cashing out daily and re-uping as soon as your coin gets in your is in your hands,always in action, Its very easy to make good $$ being a bonus whore scalper! The main key is stop gambling!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!

[Ganchrow]

AK: The chart refers to pure bonus whoring. This refers to the act of taking down a bonus, and then simply betting through the rollover. Betting the entire rollover at an unhandicapped naked -110 at a 30% bonus with 5x rollover, one can still expect to be slightly profitable.

The equation mentioned later is an inequality giving the maximum expected % loss on one's bets for profitability. The expected loss can refer to a middle, a scalp, or simply a value bet.

[jay88]

The main key is stop gambling!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!

:+friendly :laughing: :images(5)

[Ganchrow]

None as long as it works for you...

It doesn't just work for me ... it works for everyone who resides in a universe where mathematics continues to work.

[AK]

ganchro,

I would like you to make a graph including people who get a equal vig on opposite sides of the game and also a graph which shows a 3-5% vig on opposite of the games please.

[Ganchrow]

I would like you to make a graph including people who get a equal vig on opposite sides of the game and also a graph which shows a 3-5% vig on opposite of the games please.

You'll have to better articulate what you're asking for. I'm not following you in the slighest.

[pags11]

have never heard the term, but I don't see anything wrong with using bonuses the right way to reduce the juice...

[slacker00]

Bonus whoring is about the same as clipping coupons or doing mail-in rebates. I'd say it closely resembles mail-in rebates in that you get your bonus after you jump through a variety of hurdles, and even then you are at the mercy of the company you are submitting the rebate/bonus. Just yesterday I was on the phone with an online casino, which I will not name. It was over a $50 bonus which I felt I was owed. Long story short, they told me that I could not claim two bonuses within the course of a rolling two week period. Wonderful. That's the type of b.s. you'll have to face sometimes. But, like rebates, I get about 95% of them in the end. I really hate doing rebates anymore. It is getting close with bonuses also. I just hate messing with it. Then again, I have a fairly recent foul taste in my mouth.

So, you just have to figure in the bonus into the overall picture. If you are already going with a good book that you absolutely love, screw some bonus from someone else. It's just a pain, most of the time. Same goes for rebates. I bought a computer almost two years ago, and got about half dozen rebates on it to get a awesome price. I bought another new one this last spring, and I could have maybe saved 50 bucks with another battery of rebates, but I said "screw it", I'm not going through all of that hassle for 50 bucks.

[AK]

You'll have to better articulate what you're asking for. I'm not following you in the slighest.

Give me the breakdown and formula list on your first post but with only a 3% vig rate on game

Example

Houston +113
Cardinals - 116

[jjgold]

Ak makes a lot of good points here and plus this guy is a pro at it.

You need a skill to succeed in this

[raiders72001]

Good points Ganchrow and AK.

Jay

In gambling there is no equation or system that works. I can assure you that.

I'm not one of them but there are guys here that make a living that are bonus whores that scalp.

I will take a scalp when possible but most of my plays are straight.

[AK]

I'm working on a database on 3%-5% vig per average on game to determine how much you make on an "average basis"

AK

[Ganchrow]

Give me the breakdown and formula list on your first post but with only a 3% vig rate on game

Example

Houston +113
Cardinals - 116

Well part of me thinks that this exercise might be better left to the reader but ... well here goes:

Firstly, the example lines you've given do not represent 3% vig but rather 0.648% vig.

Secondly, the inequality given in post #1 is not a function of vig, hence it holds regardless of vig. What it tells us for a given bonus and rollover is what the maximum vig is for you to still profit (actually break even if it holds as an equality, profit if the inequality strictly holds) by blindly running through the rollover and then withdrawing.

Thirdly, the breakeven rollover levels for 3% and 0.648% vig are given below. No database needed.

Bonus			Max Rollover (3% vig)	Max Rollover (0.648% vig)
5%			1.59			7.35
10.0%			3.03			14.03
15.0%			4.35			20.13
20.0%			5.56			25.73
25.0%			6.67			30.87
30.0%			7.69			35.62
35.0%			8.64			40.02
40.0%			9.52			44.10
45.0%			10.34			47.90
50.0%			11.11			51.45
55.0%			11.83			54.77
60.0%			12.50			57.88
65.0%			13.13			60.81
70.0%			13.73			63.56
75.0%			14.29			66.15
80.0%			14.81			68.60
85.0%			15.32			70.92
90.0%			15.79			73.12
95.0%			16.24			75.20
100.0%			16.67			77.18

[AK]

[AK]

Thanks for the work on that Ganchrow

[pags11]

slacker, good info...thanks bud...

[jjgold]

Ganch is a statistics expert

He knows every number

[bigboydan]

Ganch is a statistics expert

He knows every number

good info to know.

[d2bets]

Bonus whoring is profitable and can be a component of a good overall betting plan, but it certainly shouldn't be your only goal or even the primary consideration. And eventually it does have diminishing returns. A bonus generally shouldn't be the ONLY reason to join a new book. But a little whoring here and there never hurt anybody. Plus it's a good incentive and inducement to try out more shops -- some might be kept past the bonus, some might not.

[Bill Dozer]

I always thought of "whoring" as the negative word it is. The label, to me, suggests a cheat who does anything for a bonus. One who might break rules such as the number of allowed accounts per household.

For those who simply chase incentives, "bonus hunter" seems appropriate. I also like Mudcat's "bonus enthusiast". Crappy books like to use the word "whore" to suggest the player is doing something wrong. If the book isn't marketing properly and is just putting all the cash out there in bonus money, they will get torched. If the book doesn't have anything besides a bonus going for them they will get torched. The so called "whores" that they despise probably speed up the inevitable.

So… I say more power to the guys who limit their risk by grabbing the advantageous bonuses. Someone has to go in first. Books have to consider the bonus scalpers as part of the overhead. If the market continues to move faster and faster with the Pinnacles, they might have to find a new incentive or accept lower profit margins.

[AK]

So… I say more power to the guys who limit their risk by grabbing the advantageous bonuses. Someone has to go in first.

First in last Out!!!

SOLID POST

[BAUS]

Super sharp post Bill. "Bonus Hunter" is much more appropriate.

Hunters are usually the ones who will try out the new and untested books before other players and report on how things went.

BAUS

[Bill Dozer]

Don't get me wrong, if there was a way to detect scalpers ahead of time and deny them the bonuses, I would be all for it. We would all like to see actual players get the money.

Marketing is becoming more and more challenging for the books so they are spending more of the budget on bonuses. At the same time the sports market movement is getting more and more defined. Something has to give.

[AK]

Only they that has to give is no more bonuses but this will never happen as eveybody and there mother wants to become an offshore bookie these days.

Bonuses will never go away

I get paid good money to advertise bonus whores on my site!! believe me, they like bonus whores action at most lower ended books because they usually are the other side making money with bonuswhores. No bonuswhore wants to scalp 10 dimes into a lower rated book. Its books like pinnacle and wwts that get hit up from bonuswhores.

[Bill Dozer]

I get paid good money to advertise bonus whores on my site!! believe me, they like bonus whores action at most lower ended books because they usually are the other side making money with bonuswhores. No bonuswhore wants to scalp 10 dimes into a lower rated book. Its books like pinnacle and wwts that get hit up from bonuswhores.

Yea, you are right. Rich Coast puts the word out that they are offering 25% bonuses and Simon and Henry just look at each other and say "oh Shit!".

ok, time for bed.

[pags11]

I agree Bill...AK, I actually saw someone on another site talking your site up...

[AK]

I agree Bill...AK, I actually saw someone on another site talking your site up...

Yes I have noticed and I'm happy about that. Alexa ratings this past week alone are around 132,000 which is great.

People go to my site for one thing, to find a good bonus and to deposit and play period.

My traffic would be much higher with a forum as people would return daily to chit chat. I'm not going that way though.

[AK]

Yea, you are right. Rich Coast puts the word out that they are offering 25% bonuses and Simon and Henry just look at each other and say "oh Shit!".

ok, time for bed.

henry is worth 1.3 billion