1. #1
    C-Gold
    C-Gold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-04-10
    Posts: 6,808
    Betpoints: 843

    Fantasy Football sleepers

    I hate almost every fantasy football "sleepers" article I read. They are usually the same players with the same logic.

    Ben Tate - because if/when Foster goes down he will be worth a lot!
    Jaquez Rodgers - because Turner is slowing down and Rodgers will get some carries!
    Dwyer from Pittsburgh because Mendanhall is injured!
    Matt Ryan because instead of being the 8th best fantasy QB he might be the 6th best this year yay!
    Julio Jones because the idiots in your league don't know he's a freak of nature!
    Pierre Garcon because he's a #1 WR now!

    You don't win your league because you picked Jonathan Dwyer in the 14th round and get RB 3 production from him. You win your league because the RB you selected in round 1 stays healthy and scores points - last year Ray Rice, McCoy, Foster instead of Peterson, Charles etc.

    Instead of focusing on sleepers why not focus on guys in early/mid rounds who are poised to make a step forward or guys who have a history of staying healthy therefore are safer picks?

    Everybody wants to talk about rookies RG3, Luck, or Russell Wilson, but what about guys in years 2-3 that have some experience under their belts that are ready to take a step forward. The old rule was that it take 3 years to use the west coast offense or that WR's break out in year 3. How come nobody says Sam Bradford is a sleeper, or that Andy Dalton had a good rookie year he's only going to be better this year... or that Michael Crabtree who was Mr. ESPN best WR in a generation a couple years ago and had 2 decent years will blow up this year?

    It is all group think out there.

    What about NY Giants pass catchers because Eli Manning "makes" TE's and WR's? What the heck did Steve Smith ever do when he left, or Kevin Boss, and how did Ballard an undrafted blocking TE put up numbers or undrafted Victor Cruz? Good passing QBs make the guys around them better and make sleepers.

    I like the Redskins RB more than QB. I think Helu is the best player and fits the zone blocking schemes best but he's hurt and Royster has the inside track. Do you know why I like Royster a lot? Remember back in the Denver days anybody could rush for 1000 yards in Shannihan's offense? I think one of the fundamental plays of his offense is the stretch right play, with the bootleg option. Having a mobile QB run that play is a different ball game than Grossman running it. The weakside DE/OLB have to contain in case it is a bootleg, which means the offense really has to practice good gap control and it opens running lanes for the RB. Whoever starts at RB for Washington is a threat for a 100 yard game every game. If Royster gets 14 starts he could rush for 1250 yards and 10+ touchdowns.

    Tebow sucks as a QB but it's the same thing. Look at how Denver led the league in rushing last year. If he's starting for the Jets (which would be a big mistake) then Greene would benefit. Plus Sexy Rexy wants to ground and pound anyway.

    Jay Cutler loves throwing to Marshall and Cutler hasn't even had a receiver in the time he's been in Chicago. Marshall's targets will go way up. The guy catches 100 balls a year anyway, what do you think is going to happen. Yeah people already like Marshall but I think he's worth the price. Plus with that size he's a red zone target and Cutler is underrated.

    Santana Moss is probably over the hill but the guy cut 20 pounds this offseason. He went from 205 to 185. THAT'S the info I want, not that the backup RB will score points if the starter goes down.
    Points Awarded:

    Monitor-Tan gave C-Gold 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Avenger

  2. #2
    NYSportsGuy210
    NYSportsGuy210's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-07-09
    Posts: 11,347
    Betpoints: 131

    Quote: "Jay Cutler loves throwing to Marshall and Cutler hasn't even had a receiver in the time he's been in Chicago. Marshall's targets will go way up. The guy catches 100 balls a year anyway, what do you think is going to happen. Yeah people already like Marshall but I think he's worth the price. Plus with that size he's a red zone target and Cutler is underrated."


    Please don't insult Johnny Knox like that.

  3. #3
    C-Gold
    C-Gold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-04-10
    Posts: 6,808
    Betpoints: 843

    Johnny Knox is a 3rd best option at best.

    He's fast but he's 6'0 185, I think that's being generous. He's probably 5'11 or 5'10 and maybe 185 soaking wet. He's certainly not a red zone target.

    Knox has caught 45, 51 and 37 balls on a team with no receiver. That's playing all the time, on a team with no wide outs. He's missed 3 games in 3 years and is averaging 44 catches. Last year he caught 53% of his targets. Wes Welker caught 71% of his targets. Knox is just not that good of a player. He can contribute but you can't build a passing attack around him at all. Marshall yes, Knox no.

  4. #4
    doublej95
    Co Power Poster 2011
    doublej95's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-10
    Posts: 14,094
    Betpoints: 19

    David Wilson, giants
    Greg Olsen, panthers

  5. #5
    Sledge187
    Sledge187's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-25-08
    Posts: 3,722
    Betpoints: 5937

    I'll give my SBR family one more guy. Keeshawn Martin with the Texans. Third WR will see a ton of action this year.

  6. #6
    therushishere
    therushishere's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-21-12
    Posts: 713
    Betpoints: 990

    Quote Originally Posted by Sledge187 View Post
    I'll give my SBR family one more guy. Keeshawn Martin with the Texans. Third WR will see a ton of action this year.
    He'll be good for 900 all purpose yards (will be getting plenty of end-arounds) and 6 TDs but if/when Andre/Walter go down Jean will have better individual game performances.

    And OP on point

  7. #7
    Speedy88
    Speedy88's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-11
    Posts: 11,717
    Betpoints: 1636

    It's all about getting good value at the pick. Sleeper lists usually just contain guys in the 8th-12th rounds that never end up starting in most fantasy leagues.

    Possible good value picks:

    Mike Vick - He'll likely last til the early to mid 3rd round. If he falls to the 30-35th range, I may have to think about taking him. People love to talk bad about Vick and his injuries, but when he is healthy, nobody wants to go up against him in fantasy. He is a 30 point fantasy bomb just waiting to go off every game.

    Percy Harvin - He has been falling far in a lot of mocks I've been taking. Good chance he ends the year as a top 10 WR in fantasy. He's been lasting til the 5th round in a lot of my mocks.

    Antonio Brown - He'll be a high end WR2....maybe a low end WR1 if he really takes off. But he's been going ridiculously low in all my drafts, as low as 6th round sometimes. His stock has been rising throughout this preseason though.

    Brandon Marshall - He's been going in the 3rd round, but I think he'll be a top 5 WR each week. Meaning 3rd round is a steal.

    Those are the ones that come to mind.....

  8. #8
    onlooker
    I'm still watching...
    onlooker's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 36,572
    Betpoints: 4627

    Quote Originally Posted by doublej95 View Post
    David Wilson, giants
    Greg Olsen, panthers
    I already have David Wilson (10th round, 120th pick), and have been thinking about picking up Greg Olsen.

  9. #9
    k13
    k13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-16-10
    Posts: 17,536
    Betpoints: 1824

    Marshall has never made it to me in the 3rd in a 100+ mocks
    Harvin never gets past 4th

  10. #10
    onlooker
    I'm still watching...
    onlooker's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 36,572
    Betpoints: 4627

    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Harvin never gets past 4th
    I got Percy Harvin in the 5th round, 49th pick.

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/fantasy-sp...ball-team.html

  11. #11
    Speedy88
    Speedy88's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-11
    Posts: 11,717
    Betpoints: 1636

    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Marshall has never made it to me in the 3rd in a 100+ mocks
    Harvin never gets past 4th
    Marshall makes it to the 3rd round in nearly every mock I've done, and i've done close to 25 mocks. Same with Harvin and the 5th round.

    Should they be off the board earlier? Yes. But these ESPN mock drafts are filled with idiots who don't know how to draft.

  12. #12
    NYSportsGuy210
    NYSportsGuy210's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-07-09
    Posts: 11,347
    Betpoints: 131

    Brandon Marshall never makes it past the third round is always a top 35 pick. In PPR he is a top 23 pick in all mock drafts.

  13. #13
    Speedy88
    Speedy88's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-11
    Posts: 11,717
    Betpoints: 1636

    Quote Originally Posted by NYSportsGuy210 View Post
    Brandon Marshall never makes it past the third round is always a top 35 pick. In PPR he is a top 23 pick in all mock drafts.
    Agreed, he is usually taken within the first half of the 3rd round in non PPR leagues. He is going to have a huge year.

  14. #14
    Avenger
    Avenger's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-15-11
    Posts: 2,119
    Betpoints: 13

    Nice write up. Thanks C-Gold, tried to send you some coins, but I must be over my daily limit. I'll try tomorrow.

    Keep them coming.... trying to learn all I can about fantasy football.

  15. #15
    k13
    k13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-16-10
    Posts: 17,536
    Betpoints: 1824

    Quote Originally Posted by Speedy88 View Post
    Marshall makes it to the 3rd round in nearly every mock I've done, and i've done close to 25 mocks. Same with Harvin and the 5th round.

    Should they be off the board earlier? Yes. But these ESPN mock drafts are filled with idiots who don't know how to draft.
    Try drafting in the 11th spot.

  16. #16
    Goat Milk
    Goat Milk's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-24-10
    Posts: 25,838
    Betpoints: 10176

    reggie wayne

  17. #17
    doublej95
    Co Power Poster 2011
    doublej95's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-10
    Posts: 14,094
    Betpoints: 19

    Quote Originally Posted by onlooker View Post
    I already have David Wilson (10th round, 120th pick), and have been thinking about picking up Greg Olsen.

    Olsen should see an increase in production this year since he will not be splitting time with Shockey.

  18. #18
    TheMetsSuck
    TheMetsSuck's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-14-12
    Posts: 6,118
    Betpoints: 1476

    i had my draft tonight. wish i saw this thread before it. let me know what you think. 12 team league with 1 qb, 2 rb, 3 wr, 1 te, 1 d, 1k

    1. Mcfadden (8th pick)
    2. andre johnson
    3. aj green
    4. fred jackson
    5. aaron hernandez
    6. reggie bush ( kinda ran out of time here and took best guy i thought was available)
    7. 49ers d ( lil early for d prob)
    8. schaub (hoping for a lot of deep bombs to andre)
    9. randy moss (not sure what i was thinking here....ran out of time and just read a sleeper article on him)
    10. santana moss
    11. carson palmer
    12. ryan williams
    13. hartley,
    14.blount,
    15. jaquizz rodgers

    looking at other peoples teams in the league i think i have one of the top ones. I have a surplus of rb's and already have ppl trying to get reggie bush and ryan williams. I'll probably trade one of them for a decent wr? Or do i need to try and upgrade my qb or just play the matchups each week with carson/schaub?

  19. #19
    Sledge187
    Sledge187's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-25-08
    Posts: 3,722
    Betpoints: 5937

    Was about to take Randy myself in one my drafts in the late rounds when I remembered how terrible he was the last season he played. Might not even make 53 man roster.

  20. #20
    tatommack
    cowboys make the playoffs
    tatommack's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-10-08
    Posts: 4,171

    I got Randy moss in the 10th round and D Bess in the 11th he will end up as the number 1

  21. #21
    tatommack
    cowboys make the playoffs
    tatommack's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-10-08
    Posts: 4,171

    Also cowboys d they will be very good

  22. #22
    Ghenghis Kahn
    Best Baller on SBR
    Ghenghis Kahn's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 19,735
    Betpoints: 2261

    Quote Originally Posted by onlooker View Post
    I got Percy Harvin in the 5th round, 49th pick.

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/fantasy-sp...ball-team.html
    that's a fuckin steal. he usually goes late 3rd, early 4th.

  23. #23
    KidHusker
    KidHusker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-28-11
    Posts: 27
    Betpoints: 476

    Stevan Ridley

  24. #24
    Louisvillekid1
    LAMAR MVP!
    Louisvillekid1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-17-07
    Posts: 52,044
    Betpoints: 553

    Dwyer, Ridley, tamme...

    Its a travesty that r Wayne fell to the 11th round in my draft!

  25. #25
    onlooker
    I'm still watching...
    onlooker's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 36,572
    Betpoints: 4627

    Quote Originally Posted by Ghenghis Kahn View Post
    that's a fuckin steal. he usually goes late 3rd, early 4th.
    The commish added return yards to the scoring this year, so I planned from the start to get either D.Sproles or P.Harvin. I didn't figure I would get both. These guys are projected to score as high, or close to the top 3 RB's each week. I also have one of those, R.Rice.

    I really need Matt Ryan to finally become a top 5 QB this year. He has the weapons, and new uptempo offense to help that out.

  26. #26
    Louisvillekid1
    LAMAR MVP!
    Louisvillekid1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-17-07
    Posts: 52,044
    Betpoints: 553

    Quote Originally Posted by onlooker View Post
    The commish added return yards to the scoring this year, so I planned from the start to get either D.Sproles or P.Harvin. I didn't figure I would get both. These guys are projected to score as high, or close to the top 3 RB's each week. I also have one of those, R.Rice.

    I really need Matt Ryan to finally become a top 5 QB this year. He has the weapons, and new uptempo offense to help that out.
    Sorry Pal, that aint happening...

    I think ATL struggles all year... 8-8, 9-7 @ best...

  27. #27
    ChalkyDog
    Buy the ticket, take the ride.
    ChalkyDog's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-02-11
    Posts: 9,598
    Betpoints: 13

    Montario Hardesty. Been reading on this situation as I got stuck with Trent in one league for a bit. This guy is finally healthy for the first time in a long time, and has the potential to be an absolute beast.

    Trent is really good, obviously - but Montario could easily turn that into a time-share, as Montario is projected to get more touches in week 1, he could step up.

    It is all running in Cleveland, because they literally cannot pass the ball.

  28. #28
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Quote Originally Posted by Sledge187 View Post
    I'll give my SBR family one more guy. Keeshawn Martin with the Texans. Third WR will see a ton of action this year.
    Lestar Jean?

  29. #29
    samgurt
    samgurt's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-31-10
    Posts: 2,980
    Betpoints: 90

    Kyle Rudolph, Minny Tight End

    Other than Harvin, there are no options to throw to. Rudolph has some of the best hands i've ever seen

  30. #30
    Westside
    Westside's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-04-10
    Posts: 21
    Betpoints: 307

    seattle D

  31. #31
    onlooker
    I'm still watching...
    onlooker's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 36,572
    Betpoints: 4627

    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Sorry Pal, that aint happening...

    I think ATL struggles all year... 8-8, 9-7 @ best...
    Same was said last year, when I took Matthew Stafford.

    Not saying it will, but there is a chance.

  32. #32
    Louisvillekid1
    LAMAR MVP!
    Louisvillekid1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-17-07
    Posts: 52,044
    Betpoints: 553

    Quote Originally Posted by onlooker View Post
    Same was said last year, when I took Matthew Stafford.

    Not saying it will, but there is a chance.
    Not by me, Stafford is a beast...

  33. #33
    Chi_archie
    GASPING FOR AIR
    Chi_archie's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-22-08
    Posts: 63,130
    Betpoints: 2368

    I need Stafford to be huge

    who is this year's victor cruz?

  34. #34
    onlooker
    I'm still watching...
    onlooker's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 36,572
    Betpoints: 4627

    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Not by me, Stafford is a beast...
    Easy to say now, but I'm talking August of 2011.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    who is this year's victor cruz?
    I hope Titus Young. I drafted him. He has the potential, and the QB to do it. He is now the Lions #2 WR, and we all know Megatron will get all the attention.

  35. #35
    Speedy88
    Speedy88's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-19-11
    Posts: 11,717
    Betpoints: 1636

    Willis McGahee. He'll finish as a top 10 fantasy RB if he can stay healthy. He is getting up there in age, but he'll have plenty of redzone touches in a good Denver offense. Denver has a good running game, and Peyton will only help it. He's a great value pick if you can get him in the 4th or 5th round.

12 Last
Top