Few reasons.
I like Harvey, I liked him from his call up last month, I still think the kid will be a solid #2 starter (if not an ace) in the years to come.
This is his fifth start, the novelty of 'being in the show' has worn off, I think he's settled in.
Three of this four starts have been very good. SD roughed him up for five runs, take that out of the equation, his other three starts have been 2 earned runs, 2 earned runs, 0 earned runs in his debut.
Not his fault, the Mets bats got him 1 run in the SF loss and 0 runs in the Brave loss, he held their bats down, he did his part.
Kid strikes out more than 1 per inning, Cincy has a penchant for striking out a lot.
Advantage to the Mets that Cincy has never seen his stuff before, ever.
Bailey is a pedestrian like pitcher. pretty much mediocre numbers across the board, except for strikeouts, his K per nine ratio is good.
Bailey has been awful his past three starts.
David Wright has owned him in the past, 5 for 9 says so.
Rest of the Mets has hit him in the past, overall 25 for 71 is just enough of a cross sampling that tells me Bailey doesn't really fool the Mets.
Another factor, Mets don't roll over like some MLB teams (Red Sox come to mind)
Mets haven't looked sharp in their last two, doesn't mean they pack it in tonight.
Mets play for Collins, I expect them to get to Bailey for five tonight, I expect a seven inning eight K performance from Wonder Kid tonight also.
If you aren't comfortable backing the Mets, pass or fade, I got a good feel for this one tonight, doesn't mean it hits, I just like the 3:2 value here.
A lot
200 gets me 300.
Good luck all