Nadal vs Thiem French Final : The One Guy Nadal Never Wants To See

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  • jjgold
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-20-05
    • 388179

    #1
    Nadal vs Thiem French Final : The One Guy Nadal Never Wants To See
    Thiem one of rare guys ever that can hang with Nadal on a regular basis

    Nadal will have to play perfect match to win like usual vs Thiem the next best clay courter

    Nadal on record recently called Thiem his biggest clay-court rival
  • pavyracer
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 04-12-07
    • 82839

    #2
    What's the head to head record coach?
    Comment
    • jjgold
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 07-20-05
      • 388179

      #3
      No idea

      I know thiem beat him four times on clay which is a ton vs Nadal Many other losses were battles
      Comment
      • navyblue81
        SBR MVP
        • 11-29-13
        • 4143

        #4
        I don’t know how much Thiem will have in the tank. Four straight days of matches while Nadal has played 6 total sets in 6 days. I would normally say Thiem has a shot, but I could see Thiem having a hard time recuperating from beating Novak and getting crushed tomorrow. Cooler weather should help him as Nadal likes it more dry and hot so he gets a higher bounce.
        Comment
        • unlearn
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 03-22-14
          • 9041

          #5
          Nadal-6 games easy $
          Comment
          • RudyRuetigger
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 08-24-10
            • 65084

            #6
            we like thiem here
            Comment
            • pavyracer
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 04-12-07
              • 82839

              #7
              I don't think Nadal will break a sweat if it's cold weather. He likes it hot and humid so his hair get sweaty.
              Comment
              • navyblue81
                SBR MVP
                • 11-29-13
                • 4143

                #8
                I’ll prolly play it live. I think you’ll be able to tell after a game or two how the match is going to go. After 2 or 3 games last year, you knew it was over.
                Comment
                • jjgold
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 07-20-05
                  • 388179

                  #9
                  Good point Thiem is worn down and Nadal very fresh


                  That’s usually in important in tennis what’s the line I’m on the road picking up pool supplies
                  Comment
                  • Snowball
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 11-15-09
                    • 30057

                    #10
                    Thiem is only 25 and will not be worn down at all.

                    If Nadal is going to win he will have to bring his A+ game.
                    Comment
                    • RudyRuetigger
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 08-24-10
                      • 65084

                      #11
                      Originally posted by jjgold
                      Good point Thiem is worn down and Nadal very fresh


                      That’s usually in important in tennis what’s the line I’m on the road picking up pool supplies
                      let me know your price of chlorine per 100lbs
                      Comment
                      • SamsNCharge99
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 10-22-08
                        • 41242

                        #12
                        Nadal won last year 3-0

                        we keep trying to find ways to beat nadal. But nadal IS THAT GOOD
                        Comment
                        • navyblue81
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-29-13
                          • 4143

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Snowball
                          Thiem is only 25 and will not be worn down at all.

                          If Nadal is going to win he will have to bring his A+ game.
                          Physically I agree. I think he’ll be okay. Mentally is the concern. You just beat the number one player in the world in 5 grueling sets over two days and now have to beat the best player in the history of this tournament one day later. It’s like trying to beat Bama one week as an underdog and then recuperate and try and beat an ever better Clemson team the next. Good luck.
                          Comment
                          • Snowball
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 11-15-09
                            • 30057

                            #14
                            Thiem is 4-8 vs Nadal so it's not like he CAN'T win.
                            The line is right around -435 with perhaps some edging up to -450/-475 max
                            Comment
                            • homie1975
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 12-24-13
                              • 15452

                              #15
                              RAFA is -430 on 5Dimes

                              Comment
                              • homie1975
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 12-24-13
                                • 15452

                                #16
                                Originally posted by jjgold
                                Good point Thiem is worn down and Nadal very fresh


                                That’s usually in important in tennis what’s the line I’m on the road picking up pool supplies
                                Rafa is 33 yrs old and many years of wear and tear.

                                Thiem is 25 yrs young. fresh muscles.

                                even on same amount of rest, RAFA would have been a huge fave

                                Coach stop trying to take away from Rafa's greatness. Stop it !!!
                                Comment
                                • Baraldsson
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 05-18-19
                                  • 514

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by jjgold
                                  Thiem one of rare guys ever that can hang with Nadal on a regular basis

                                  Nadal will have to play perfect match to win like usual vs Thiem the next best clay courter

                                  Nadal on record recently called Thiem his biggest clay-court rival
                                  Thiem is good but Nadal is Nadal.
                                  Comment
                                  • jjgold
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 07-20-05
                                    • 388179

                                    #18
                                    I wonder how the conditions are going to be?

                                    Wind favors Thiem
                                    Comment
                                    • pavyracer
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 04-12-07
                                      • 82839

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by jjgold
                                      I wonder how the conditions are going to be?

                                      Wind favors Thiem
                                      DAY

                                      68°HI
                                      RealFeel® 72°
                                      Precipitation 55%

                                      Mostly cloudy with a passing shower


                                      • [*=left]Winds from the
                                        [*=left]ESE 5 mph
                                        [*=left]Gusts: 8 mph





                                      • Max UV Index: 4 (Moderate)
                                      • Thunderstorms: 20%
                                      • Precipitation: 0.04 in
                                      • Rain: 0.04 in
                                      • Snow: 0 in
                                      • Ice: 0 in
                                      • Hours of Precipitation: 1 hrs
                                      • Hours of Rain: 1 hrs

                                      Comment
                                      • navyblue81
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-29-13
                                        • 4143

                                        #20
                                        Weather favors Thiem. Cooler and damp means ball won’t bounce as high. High bounces and fast conditions are where Nadal kills you. His worst matches have come in those conditions (including his loss to Soderling)
                                        Comment
                                        • unlearn
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 03-22-14
                                          • 9041

                                          #21
                                          Weather overrated. Guy will be playing for his 3rd day in a row vs a guy who has won every final he ever played on Chatrier. Waste of $ betting on a cuck like Thiem to win here
                                          Comment
                                          • navyblue81
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-29-13
                                            • 4143

                                            #22
                                            +350 to me not enough value. I wouldn’t take Thiem unless I could get him at 6-1 or better.
                                            Comment
                                            • lakerboy
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 04-02-09
                                              • 94379

                                              #23
                                              I'm on thiem
                                              Comment
                                              • asiagambler
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 07-23-17
                                                • 6827

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by navyblue81
                                                Weather favors Thiem. Cooler and damp means ball won’t bounce as high. High bounces and fast conditions are where Nadal kills you. His worst matches have come in those conditions (including his loss to Soderling)
                                                I don't think it's right to say Nadal likes fast conditions. His game is based on running everything down and teeing up every shot. He prefers it slow and predictable. But it's not like fast conditions would bother him too much after all, he's won majors on every surface and clay is clay so it can only get so fast at normal altitude.

                                                With all that said, I'll probably bet Thiem anyway.
                                                Comment
                                                • Snowball
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 11-15-09
                                                  • 30057

                                                  #25
                                                  The last Frenchman to win French Open was Joakim Noah's father, Yannick Noah in 1983.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • navyblue81
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-29-13
                                                    • 4143

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by asiagambler
                                                    I don't think it's right to say Nadal likes fast conditions. His game is based on running everything down and teeing up every shot. He prefers it slow and predictable. But it's not like fast conditions would bother him too much after all, he's won majors on every surface and clay is clay so it can only get so fast at normal altitude.
                                                    With all that said, I'll probably bet Thiem anyway.
                                                    They went over it in detail on the broadcast the other day and why when it's hard and fast, Nadal is so unbeatable. Has something to do with the higher bounce. I don't know the science of it all, but they said on tv that cooler and softer conditions hurt Nadal, while dry and fast suits his game.

                                                    I would bet Thiem if there was better value. Anyone less than 6-1 value on Nadal is not worth it.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • DrunkHorseplayer
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 05-15-10
                                                      • 7719

                                                      #27
                                                      Nadal beat him in last year's final and Thiem has played four days in a row whereas Nadal has rested three of the past four days; Nadal or nothing.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • asiagambler
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 07-23-17
                                                        • 6827

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by navyblue81
                                                        They went over it in detail on the broadcast the other day and why when it's hard and fast, Nadal is so unbeatable. Has something to do with the higher bounce. I don't know the science of it all, but they said on tv that cooler and softer conditions hurt Nadal, while dry and fast suits his game.

                                                        I would bet Thiem if there was better value. Anyone less than 6-1 value on Nadal is not worth it.
                                                        Well I think it depends on the opponent and the higher bounce does play to his benefit, I do agree with that. But in general, his game is essentially made for slow surfaces. Looking at his titles, he's obviously dominated clay courts in his entire career but for what it's worth, he's "only" won 5 titles at Madrid, where courts typically play a bit faster. Compare that to Monte Carlo (11), Rome (9) and Barcelona (11) (and of course Roland Garros).
                                                        Comment
                                                        • jjgold
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 07-20-05
                                                          • 388179

                                                          #29
                                                          Nadal 3-1?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Snowball
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 11-15-09
                                                            • 30057

                                                            #30
                                                            i have a thiem future so that's why i took this "hedge"
                                                            (i hedged with Joker also and it cost me so didn't want to lay -435 now)

                                                            but the bet makes sense as a stand-alone.
                                                            have to figure Nadal, let's be serious..
                                                            Thiem Games Won Under 16.5 (-110)
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Plaza23
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 12-29-13
                                                              • 7392

                                                              #31
                                                              Rafa is 81-2 in his career at French Open. Thiem has no shot here. Nobody does except maybe peak Novak.

                                                              Rafa, on this court best of 5...nobody can beat him. Thiem may play amazing one set (like US Open where he won 6-0 vs Rafa in set 1 but still lost the match), but he can’t sustain it over 5 sets. He really wasn’t good vs Novak, made a ton of errors.

                                                              I’m surprised Thiem has better odds than Federer. This won’t be close.

                                                              I’ll take Under 12.5 games won for Thiem,
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Grivas_Digeni
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 05-08-15
                                                                • 5307

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Plaza23
                                                                Rafa is 81-2 in his career at French Open. Thiem has no shot here. Nobody does except maybe peak Novak.

                                                                Rafa, on this court best of 5...nobody can beat him. Thiem may play amazing one set (like US Open where he won 6-0 vs Rafa in set 1 but still lost the match), but he can’t sustain it over 5 sets. He really wasn’t good vs Novak, made a ton of errors.

                                                                I’m surprised Thiem has better odds than Federer. This won’t be close.

                                                                I’ll take Under 12.5 games won for Thiem,
                                                                Why take under 12.5 if you can take over 16.5?




                                                                lol joking aside: if anyone disagrees with Plaza23, feel free to take my points




                                                                Thiem ML +390
                                                                Thiem 3-0 +2000
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Grivas_Digeni
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 05-08-15
                                                                  • 5307

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by navyblue81
                                                                  They went over it in detail on the broadcast the other day and why when it's hard and fast, Nadal is so unbeatable. Has something to do with the higher bounce. I don't know the science of it all, but they said on tv that cooler and softer conditions hurt Nadal, while dry and fast suits his game.

                                                                  I would bet Thiem if there was better value. Anyone less than 6-1 value on Nadal is not worth it.
                                                                  You can wait until Nadal wins the first set 6-4 and get 9-1
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Grivas_Digeni
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 05-08-15
                                                                    • 5307

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Snowball
                                                                    i have a thiem future so that's why i took this "hedge"
                                                                    (i hedged with Joker also and it cost me so didn't want to lay -435 now)

                                                                    but the bet makes sense as a stand-alone.
                                                                    have to figure Nadal, let's be serious..
                                                                    Thiem Games Won Under 16.5 (-110)
                                                                    Thin ice. Hedges like this make one's hair gray. What about Thiem winning the first set 6-4 or worse yet 7-5?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • navyblue81
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-29-13
                                                                      • 4143

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Grivas_Digeni
                                                                      You can wait until Nadal wins the first set 6-4 and get 9-1
                                                                      Haha if Thiem loses the first set the route is on.

                                                                      Three golden rules I’ve learned over the years:
                                                                      1) Never bet against Bellichick
                                                                      2) Never bet against Saban
                                                                      3) Never bet against Nadal at the French

                                                                      You live by those rules and you’ll save yourself lots of $$$.
                                                                      Comment
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