[frogsrangers]

With new changes in TOTALCON comes a new thread.

Whereas TOTALCON Mark I simply existed to pick sides of a total, TOTALCON Mark II does things a bit differently. Instead, it searches for not only a side to pick but looking for the value as well. It is more mathematically sound.

TOTALCON Mark II has 3 parts to it.

First, the crude total which existed in TOTALCON Mark I makes its return. It uses simple sabermetrics to calculate a raw total and prices for a game. Think of this as a starting point.

Second, the D-factors. These are what I call deviations. There are 3 D-Factors. These are used to help "cap" the raw total and move it accordingly. A negative D factor means its more under friendly and should move the total/prices downward. A positive D factor means its more over friendly and should move the total upward.

D1 is the sabermetric factor. It is the D-Factor that contains sabermetric statistics such as adjusted opponents batting average, adjusted average vs. the starting pitchers hand, starting pitcher career average vs. opponent's batters, and adjusted location batting average(road/home). I consider this one the most important of the 3 D-Factors, but not so important that you should ignore the other two.

D2 is the, for lack of a better term, "what have you done lately" factor. These are non-adjusted raw stats that contain stats such as bullpen innings pitched in the last 3 games, average with runners in scoring position for the last 5 games, and batting average in the last week. If you are looking for stats that show how a team has fared lately, this is the factor for that.

D3 is the situation factor. This is where umpires, weather, park factor, and the other non statistical factors come into play. This factor is usually going to be close to 0, but if its not, that means there are some key situational factors to consider.

The 3rd part to TOTALCON Mark II is the "Capped Line". This is what I determine, based on the crude total, d-factors, and my own capping, that the fair line should be. Feel free to create your own Capped Line though. The Actual Line is what the actual Vegas line is(I use Cantor Lines), but feel free to insert your own actual line here as they vary.

This is day 1 of TOTALCON Mark II, but if I had to make plays based on these, I would make plays on the totals where the capped line has a run of value or more. I.e. if the actual line is 7.5, but the capped line is 8.5, that is a run of value so I would play the over. Likewise, if the actual line is 8.5 and the capped line is 7.5, that is a run of value and I would play the under. But its early, so this is just what I am thinking right now.

This isn't meant to pick sides, but show value, which I believe in the long run if you can consistently beat the posted line with my capped fair lines it would show a profit over the long run.

[frogsrangers]

Today's Output:

ATL/PHI
-------
Crude Total: 8.5 -105o/-115u
D1: +0.170
D2: -2.106
D3: -0.882
Capped Line: 8.0 -110o/-110u
Actual Line: 7.5 +100o/-120u


MIA/NYM
-------
Crude Total: 5.5 -110o/-110u
D1: -1.050
D2: -2.736
D3: -0.231
Capped Line: 5.5 +100o/-120u
Actual Line: 7.5 -115o/-105u


ARI/PIT
-------
Crude Total: 6.0 -115o/-105u
D1: -1.890
D2: -7.063
D3: -1.239
Capped Line: 5.5 -110o/-110u
Actual Line: 7.5 -110o/-110u


WAS/HOU
-------
Crude Total: 8.5 +105o/-125u
D1: +1.620
D2: -1.595
D3: +0.440
Capped Line: 8.5 -115o/-105u
Actual Line: 8.5 -120o/+100u


SF/STL
------
Crude Total: 9.0 -110o/-110u
D1: +0.200
D2: +0.843
D3: -3.000
Capped Line: 8.5 -115o/-105u
Actual Line: 9.0 -110o/-110u
Note: Umpire is 0-6 under lifetime


CIN/MIL
-------
Crude Total: 6.5 +105o/-125u
D1: +0.610
D2: -1.066
D3: +0.913
Capped Line: 7.0 -110o/-110u
Actual Line: 7.5 +100o/-120u


COL/LAD
-------
Crude Total: 8.5 -110o/-110u
D1: +0.480
D2: +1.349
D3: +1.350
Capped Line: 9.0 -120o/+100u
Actual Line: 7.5 -110o/-110u


CHC/SD
------
OFF


SEA/BAL
-------
Crude Total: 12.5 +105o/-125u
D1: -1.420
D2: -4.090
D3: -1.337
Capped Line: 10.0 -110o/-110u
Actual Line: 9.5 +100o/-120u


NYY/DET
-------
Crude Total: 9.0 -120o/+100u
D1: +2.220
D2: +1.296
D3: +0.033
Capped Line: 9.5 -120o/+100u
Actual Line: 9.5 -110o/-110u


TEX/BOS
-------
Crude Total: 8.5 -115o/-115u
D1: +2.100
D2: -0.690
D3: +0.393
Capped Line: 9.0 -120o/+100u
Actual Line: 9.5 -115o/-105u


TOR/TAM
-------
Crude Total: 8.5 -120o/+100u
D1: +1.510
D2: +1.540
D3: -0.149
Capped Line: 9.0 -110o/-110u
Actual Line: 7.5 -125o/+105u


MIN/CLE
-------
OFF


KC/CHW
------
Crude Total: 9.5 -115o/-105u
D1: +0.850
D2: -1.640
D3: +1.391
Capped Line: 9.5 -125o/+105u
Actual Line: 9.0 -110o/-110u


LAA/OAK
-------
Crude Total: 7.0 -115o/-105u
D1: -1.250
D2: -0.733
D3: -1.194
Capped Line: 6.5 -110o/-110u
Actual Line: 7.0 -105o/-115u

[frogsrangers]

The reason I have CHC/SD and MIN/CLE listed as OFF is because I don't like making outputs based on pitchers with really small sample sizes. I like for pitchers to have at least 20 innings under their belts before using them.

If I were to make plays based on today's output, it would be:

MIA/NYM U 7.5
ARI/PIT U 7.5
COL/LAD O 7.5
TOR/TAM O 7.5

[Conley1914]

Ok I am new to the system what would bet on

[CHR1S]

Have been on your former model since the beginning. Will just watch the games today, and the next couple of days to get a reading on the new model. Good luck

[mdfizzle]

Capping and creating a model should be mutually exclusive.

[pattymayo]

Seems like a shit ton of work for what is essentially a coinflip. Good luck pal

[shopbar picks]

Have been following, thanx for posting

[mikmik]

Thanx froggers.

[thechaoz]

Good luck ...new to your system ..so is the gap between capped and actual line a stronger play ...how do we know which ones to play?

[fitguy67]

Seems like a shit ton of work for what is essentially a coinflip. Good luck pal

An Accurate Assessment. All models/systems/techniques/"rules of thumbs"/"approaches to weighing various factors" etc. however qualitative or quantitive in nature...are trying to do is to create a slightly-positively weighted coin.

For -110 bets, the common goal of hitting 54% of your bets (which you wouldn't criticize anyone for aspiring to) is absolutely identical to trying to find/create/recognize a coinflip protocol that hits one side at least 51.5% of the time...both, IF sustainable, would give a well-worth-the-effort 3%+ edge over the haul.

Many skilled sports-bettors do hit 54%+ consistently over many football and basketball seasons of point-spread betting...indicating that they have in fact managed to engineer their own 51.5%+ weighted coin.

There are many many ways that such skilled bettors have forged and continue to modify the coin that works for them...and, quite frankly, almost all would fail theoretical scrutiny from sbr's think tank and think tank wannabes...yet they work over the haul for their owners. Random walk theory says it's impossible for mutual-funds to coninually outperform averages...but some do, consistently.

So don't dis the flip...and the search for it.

[silvap]

best of luck with the system sir

[frogsrangers]

Sorry I didn't update this for the morning games today... but I work until 1:30am and I am on the west coast, so I am not going to wake up at 8:00am to get these results ready for the day games. I guess I am going to have to start updating this overnight for the early games.

Anyway, tracking yesterday's results:

If one were to play every single game on the board: 6-7 (Unders 5-3 Overs 1-4)
If one were to play every single game that had a difference of half a run or more: 5-6 (Unders 4-2 Overs 1-4)
If one were to play every single game that had a difference of a run or more: 2-3 (Unders 2-1 Overs 0-2)

Today's output coming in about half an hour

[The Kraken]

[frogsrangers]

MIN/CLE
-------
Crude Total: 7.0 -115o/-105u
D1: +0.410
D2: +1.363
D3: +0.425
Capped Line: 8.0 -110o/-110u
Actual Line: 9.0 +100o/-120u


TEX/BOS
-------
Crude Total: 8.0 +105o/-125u
D1: +0.460
D2: -0.803
D3: +0.979
Capped Line: 8.5 -105o/-115u
Actual Line: 9.5 +100o/-120u


CIN/MIL
-------
Crude Total: 9.5 -110o/-110u
D1: +1.300
D2: -3.283
D3: +0.358
Capped Line: 9.0 +100o/-120u
Actual Line: 8.5 -120o/+100u


LAA/OAK
-------
OFF


CHC/SD
------
Crude Total: 6.5 -125o/+105u
D1: +0.030
D2: -1.003
D3: -0.223
Capped Line: 6.5 -110o/-110u
Actual Line: 7.0 +105o/-125u


ARI/PIT
-------
Crude Total: 6.5 +100o/-120u
D1: +0.770
D2: -3.466
D3: -0.302
Capped Line: 6.0 +100o/-120u
Actual Line: 8.0 -110o/-110u


ATL/PHI
-------
Crude Total: 7.5 +100o/-120u
D1: -0.380
D2: -2.227
D3: -1.156
Capped Line: 7.0 +105o/-125u
Actual Line: 8.5 -110o/-110u


MIA/NYM
-------
AUTO OVER


SEA/BAL
-------
OFF


NYY/DET
-------
Crude Total: 9.5 -110o/-110u
D1: +2.350
D2: +2.070
D3: -0.967
Capped Line: 10.5 -110o/-110u
Actual Line: 8.5 -105o/-115u


TOR/TAM
-------
Crude Total: 7.0 -110o/-110u
D1: +1.260
D2: -2.140
D3: -0.149
Capped Line: 7.0 +105o/-125u
Actual Line: 7.5 +100o/-120u


WAS/HOU
-------
OFF


SF/STL
------
Crude Total: 8.5 +105o/-125u
D1: +2.970
D2: +1.503
D3: 0.000
Capped Line: 9.0 -110o/-110u
Actual Line: 8.5 -110o/-110u


KAN/CHW
-------
Crude Total: 7.5 -110o/-110u
D1: +3.750
D2: -2.346
D3: -1.885
Capped Line: 7.5 +100o/-120u
Actual Line: 9.5 +100o/-120u


COL/LAD
-------
Crude Total: 7.0 -125o/+105u
D1: +3.410
D2: +0.296
D3: +0.388
Capped Line: 8.0 -110o/-110u
Actual Line: 7.0 -120o/+100u

[frogsrangers]

If I were to make plays on these results, they would be:

MIN/CLE U
TEX/BOS U
ARI/PIT U
ATL/PHI U
KAN/CHW U
MIA/NYM O
NYY/DET O

[mathdotcom]

Did you ever consider that maybe it's a bit of wishful thinking that the actual posted totals are off by as many as 1.5 runs?

You're still using your first model which I pointed out before is seriously flawed as you have zero theory behind it and make no attempt to check which variables are statistically significant.

If all I did was look at starting pitcher ERAs I could probably come up with totals closer to the market line than your model.

Sorry pal but I sure hope you're not betting this

[igrok]

Good Luck!

[frogsrangers]

Today's Stats:

If you played every total, you would have gone 8-4 (Unders 5-3, Overs 3-1)
If you played every capped total of a run difference of the actual line or more, you would have gone 4-3 (2-3 unders, 2-0 overs)

Life to Date Stats:

Every total: 14-11 (10-6 unders, 4-5 overs) 56%
One run+ difference: 6-6 (4-4 unders, 2-2 overs) 50%

Gonna try to do the early game totals for tomorrow, tonight

[phillybadboy]

take tex bos over the total gl

[accuscoresucks]

some fine work with this calculator sim FROGGER
keep up the great work
if we dont strive to move forward,and learn why each mistake is made? whats the point

[frogsrangers]

No numbers for early games tonight, just don't like outputting numbers with an incomplete stat set. Ruins the integrity of the system.

But I automated the entire process to run overnight so they will be ready as soon as I wake up tomorrow, and then I will post numbers for the early games.

[frogsrangers]

some fine work with this calculator sim FROGGER
keep up the great work
if we dont strive to move forward,and learn why each mistake is made? whats the point

I agree

I think someone else named the analogy earlier, just trying to make a weighted coin, that hits 53-55% of the time

Not trying to make something that hits 100% of the time that's unrealistic

[Extra Innings]

Did you ever consider that maybe it's a bit of wishful thinking that the actual posted totals are off by as many as 1.5 runs?

Something to think about Frogger, Vegas has the sharpest and brightest setting these lines...they have models which go 10x's more in depth than what you are presenting yet your finding they're sometimes 15 to 20% off true value?

[frogsrangers]

Something to think about Frogger, Vegas has the sharpest and brightest setting these lines...they have models which go 10x's more in depth than what you are presenting yet your finding they're sometimes 15 to 20% off true value?

You are right about them having teams of mathemeticians and programmers better than me, but at the same time their lines are not really made to predict a result but to split the action. So my lines are more about getting on the right side of their splitting attempts. Also Vegas likes to create "trap" lines, to trap a lot of betters into betting a side that the better thinks is a great bargain but in the back of Vegas's mind they know its a trap. Also known as the "too good to be true" effect. You could say my model also tries to sniff out those traps.

[Extra Innings]

You are right about them having teams of mathemeticians and programmers better than me, but at the same time their lines are not really made to predict a result but to split the action. So my lines are more about getting on the right side of their splitting attempts. Also Vegas likes to create "trap" lines, to trap a lot of betters into betting a side that the better thinks is a great bargain but in the back of Vegas's mind they know its a trap. Also known as the "too good to be true" effect. You could say my model also tries to sniff out those traps.

Fair enough though I don't believe in traps. I appreciate you responding to the question. Best of luck moving forward.

[CHR1S]

Solid day today. Overs are starting to hit now

[EXhoosier10]

Something to think about Frogger, Vegas has the sharpest and brightest setting these lines...they have models which go 10x's more in depth than what you are presenting yet your finding they're sometimes 15 to 20% off true value?

Based on your SBR Pro status, I'm assuming you actually bet. The lines you bet are set by Vegas. If there is not > 5% value on bets (to account for vig), you're eventually going to waste away paying juice. What exactly do you base your betting decisions on if you don't perceive excess value?

[frogsrangers]

Early lines... sorry they are out so late, but I was tired as heck and just woke up. But grab the SF/STL over 7.5 if you haven't already.

MIA @ NYM
---------
Crude Total: 7.0 -115o/-105u
D1: -1.220
D2: +0.270
D3: -0.231
Capped Line: 7.0 +100o/-120u
Actual Line: 6.5 -115o/-105u


NYY @ DET
---------
Crude Total: 8.0 -125o/+105u
D1: +1.38
D2+ +2.87
D3: -0.967
Capped Line: 8.5 -115o/-105u
Actual Line: 9.0 -105o/-115u


TOR @ TB
--------
Crude Total: 7.0 +105o/-125u
D1: -1.300
D2: -3.876
D3: -0.149
Capped Line: 6.0 +105o/-125u
Actual Line: 7.5 +100o/-120u


SF @ STL
--------
Crude Total: 10.0 -115o/-105u
D1: +2.070
D2: +0.653
D3: +1.000
Capped Line: 11.0 +105o/-125u
Actual Line: 7.5 -110o/-110u

[frogsrangers]

ARI @ PIT
---------
Crude Total: 6.0 -110o/-110u
D1: -0.830
D2: -0.700
D3: +0.102
Capped Line: 5.5 -110o/-110u
Actual Line: 8.0 -110o/-110u


BOS @ CLE
---------
Crude Total: 7.0 -105o/-115u
D1: -2.670
D2: +0.976
D3: -1.125
Capped Line: 6.5 -120o/+100u
Actual Line: 9.0 -115o/-105u


KC @ BAL
--------
Crude Total: 7.0 -120o/+100u
D1: +0.270
D2: -0.183
D3: +1.141
Capped Line: 7.5 -110o/-110u
Actual Line: 8.5 -110o/-110u


CIN @ CHC
---------
Crude Total: 9.0 +105o/-125u
D1: +3.120
D2: -3.793
D3: -1.576
Capped Line: 8.5 -105o/-115u
Actual Line: 7.5 +100o/-120u


WAS @ HOU
---------
Crude Total: 5.5 -125o/+105u
D1: -3.150
D2: +0.730
D3: -0.060
Capped Line: 5.0 -125o/+105u
Actual Line: 7.5 +100o/-120u

[flyboy]

Good luck with this hope it does everyone well.

[frogsrangers]

My plays today:

ARI/PIT Under
KC/BAL Under
BOS/CLE Under
WAS/HOU Under

[thechaoz]

Best of luck today frog

[phillybadboy]

here take tb rays for 10 dimes gl

[PickWinnerAllDay]

frogger, I'm curious what you meant when you said all of the signs in STL/SFG point towards over? What signs did you mean exactly?