[dice]

I don't put too much weight into line shifts or closing lines. Today, lines move to confuse the gamblers who have a system for it. They do it to fool you on some games. Don't underestimate the odds makers!

[raydog]

I don't put too much weight into line shifts or closing lines. Today, lines move to confuse the gamblers who have a system for it. They do it to fool you on some games. Don't underestimate the odds makers!

yes, move the line and get even more money on the side you dont need...
jaysus...

[MonkeyF0cker]

There's differences in sports. Hockey and Baseball will never have -500 favorites compared to Football, Basketball, Tennis, MMA and Boxing.
There's more luck than skill in Hockey and Baseball, that's why the playoffs is determined in the best of 7 series. If they used the football playoffs structure, where a team wins 1 game to advance, the worst team could win the Stanley Cup and World Series.

Uhh. No. There is not "more luck than skill" in hockey and baseball.

Try scoring opportunities.

Will you ever see a 100-91 score in NHL or MLB?

[Lookingtostart]

Justin7 got me into this whole thing. His vids are what I started off with.

[Heisenberg]

here.. i'll save you 124 hrs of vids to learn how to come up on top. i'll do it in 9 seconds, and you'll know just as much and all you need to know. period. no need to learn formulas, probabilities, calculus, shmalculus, logarithms, algebra, etc.. that's all useless.

have a chart that tells you what the no vig line is for each line.. Now just beat that # consistenly on the closing line, and you'll win over the long haul........ PROMISE

Example

-105/-105.. NO vig line is Even. So take any team +101 or better.

-160/+150.. NO vig line is +/-154. So just take better than +154 on dog OR -154.


Have the chart, follow it to a tee, and you'll end up with the money at the end.. There, you just saved 100 hrs of watching vids. No need to handicap. this shit is too unpredictable.

You're Welcome.

Im new to this and am really trying to wrap my pea brain around it.

ex.
Washington Redskins +415
New Orleans Saints -525

If I did it right the No-vig is +/- 433

Say I get the skins at +450 and it closes at +350 (far fetched but just and Ex.)

Yeah Im getting better value for my money but the Skins are still have less than 25% chance of winning the game. Dosnt seem like somthing that is that valuable to bet on. am I missing somthing?

Is this only ment for spreads?

I apologies in advance if im way off.

[Heisenberg]

I know I just joined but I have lurked for a while now an have learned ALOT from this fourm! There is tons of good info on this site.

[BrianLaverty]

Its hilarious what wannabe sharps Nicky and JJ are... great entertainment though.

[jjgold]

Watch this video and see why Nicky is the sharpest guy here

[easyliving]

will watch these later

[Cicima6709]

Betting 1% of your BR over and over again to earn a 3% edge ain't going
to build you up. You need to stick your neck out and go large a few times.
A 55% win percentage is only .045 on your money with vig.
You're better off laying down on a -2250 favorite in one shot
than laboring through a year of scattershot to make a mere 4.5%.

This is a joke, thats exactly how most people lose their bankroll. Going large a few times may wrk for the lucky idiot, but edge will eventually catch up and he will be broke. It's no wonder so many people here are so bad at gambling...it's a long season, slow and steady will make you rich with the right system. Taking shots will make you rich for a few days, before giving it all up.

[Darkside Magick]

3% edge compounded everyday will make you rich beyond belief......

[TomG]

nicky santoro the best numbers guy in the business

[GunShard]

This is a joke, thats exactly how most people lose their bankroll. Going large a few times may wrk for the lucky idiot, but edge will eventually catch up and he will be broke. It's no wonder so many people here are so bad at gambling...it's a long season, slow and steady will make you rich with the right system. Taking shots will make you rich for a few days, before giving it all up.

I agree, it's better to slowly make money then to quickly lose money.

Also, I believe that spot betting by viewing an entire month to find games to bet on is more effective to winning than spot betting by viewing by a day to day basis. There are less games in a day compare to a month worth of games to choose from.

[GunShard]

Uhh. No. There is not "more luck than skill" in hockey and baseball.

Try scoring opportunities.

Will you ever see a 100-91 score in NHL or MLB?

Look at the current standings.

Best MLB team: Texas Rangers: 54 wins 35 losses.
Worst MLB team: Astros Houston: 33 wins 56 losses.
Best NFL team: Green Bay Packers: 15 wins 1 loss.
Worst NFL team: St Louis Rams and Indianapolis Colts: 2 wins 14 losses.

The Win Loss ratio is more extreme in the NFL than MLB.
This is why there are -500 favorites in the NFL than MLB. NFL is more skill than luck than MLB.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Look at the current standings.

Best MLB team: Texas Rangers: 50 wins 30 losses.
Worst MLB team: Chicago Cubs: 29 wins 49 losses.
Best NFL team: Green Bay Packers: 15 wins 1 loss.
Worst NFL team: St Louis Rams and Indianapolis Colts: 2 wins 14 losses.

The Win Loss ratio is more extreme in the NFL than MLB.
This is why there are -500 favorites in the NFL than MLB. NFL is more skill than luck than MLB.

There's so much skill in the NFL that the best team didn't even go to (let alone win) the Super Bowl.

One score means a lot more in NHL and MLB versus NFL and NBA. The scoring distributions for the games of each sport are the reason for the lower win rates. Teams in the NFL and NBA have many more opportunities to make up for scores against opposing teams.

[GunShard]

There's so much skill in the NFL that the best team didn't even go to (let alone win) the Super Bowl.

One score means a lot more in NHL and MLB versus NFL and NBA. The scoring distributions for the games of each sport are the reason for the lower win rates. Teams in the NFL and NBA have many more opportunities to make up for scores against opposing teams.

Yea, it's more rare to score in the NHL, MLB and Soccer.

Championships should be decided in the best of 7 series in MLB, NHL and NBA.

The reason why the best team didn't win the Super Bowl is because the NFL cannot do the best of 7 series is because of permanent player injuries. Thus the Super Bowl winner is based on the team who can win the first game.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Then why are you comparing 16 game seasons to 162 game seasons in the first place?

[GunShard]

Then why are you comparing 16 game seasons to 162 game seasons in the first place?

I am discussing skill. Skill is based on Win Loss ratio. Not by the total amount of wins.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Bottom line understand sports and when dogs are live. Then be selective in your bets. Don't bet any random game just because your favorite pitcher is out on the mound that day....know your stuff.

Winning is the most important thing....not finding the best line.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I am discussing skill. Skill is based on Win Loss ratio. Not by the total amount of wins.

So W/L ratio decides skill? Or skill INFLUENCES W/L ratio?

[NYSportsGuy210]

you dont make money by getting beat by line moves...that is your fact, sir.

i can tell you that the most successful gamblers, that any of these gambling sites have seen, dont care which sport they are betting or who is even playing...

This is why they are all broke f*cks. Most of your so called "experts" whether on SBR or in Vegas are all losers. It's sheer fact the more amount of bets you put out there the more exposure you have and the more likely the house takes your sh*t.

No different than playing casino games at a casino. The only way to counter that is actually KNOWING SPORTS and what to bet on and when. Otherwise all this other stuff is bullsh*t semantics....wake up pal.

[MonkeyF0cker]

This thread has no business being cross-listed with the Think Tank, BTW.

[Vinnie Paz]

Ill hve to agree with sportsguy
Too many guys overthink shit, stare at lines all day, worry about prices and so on. Bottom line is knowing your shit and doing your homework & trust in it. Your bet is won/lost on the fukkin field.

[raydog]

... mf, we have been doing it all wrong ...

[MonkeyF0cker]

Yep. The guys that "know sports" do so well.

Pete Rose, Charles Barkley. Best gamblers ever.

[jgilmartin]

Yeah Im getting better value for my money but the Skins are still have less than 25% chance of winning the game. Dosnt seem like somthing that is that valuable to bet on. am I missing somthing?


Is this only ment for spreads?

No, it is not only meant for spreads. It is all a matter of the implied probability of the odds you are getting vs. the actual probability. Yes, obviously your +450 bet on the Redskins will probably lose, but if you were presented with the same hypothetical betting opportunity over and over, your bet would win more than the price you got (+450) implies (18.18%), and you would therefore profit.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Yep. The guys that "know sports" do so well.

Pete Rose, Charles Barkley. Best gamblers ever.

First of all Charles Barkley doesn't know sports.....have you heard him on TNT? Secondly, even if Pete Rose did know sports it doesn't matter if the guy is a degenerate gambler make 50 bets or more a week. Like I already stated....the more you play the more likely you are to go BROKE.

[NYSportsGuy210]

No, it is not only meant for spreads. It is all a matter of the implied probability of the odds you are getting vs. the actual probability. Yes, obviously your +450 bet on the Redskins will probably lose, but if you were presented with the same hypothetical betting opportunity over and over, your bet would win more than the price you got (+450) implies (18.18%), and you would therefore profit.

Correct it's the same logic used when a dipsh*t calls on the river needing a one outer just because he has "pot odds" even though the idiot goes broke going all in with a hand he has no business being in to begin with in poker. Once again...it's pathetic.

[MonkeyF0cker]

First of all Charles Barkley doesn't know sports.....have you heard him on TNT? Secondly, even if Pete Rose did know sports it doesn't matter if the guy is a degenerate gambler make 50 bets or more a week. Like I already stated....the more you play the more likely you are to go BROKE.

I'm sure you know sports better than professional athletes and managers. I'm sure they don't have the exact same mentality as you either.

[Darkside Magick]

no, it is not only meant for spreads. It is all a matter of the implied probability of the odds you are getting vs. The actual probability. Yes, obviously your +450 bet on the redskins will probably lose, but if you were presented with the same hypothetical betting opportunity over and over, your bet would win more than the price you got (+450) implies (18.18%), and you would therefore profit.

lmaooooooooooooo.....a -ev bet!!!

[raydog]

now you are just messing with us, i think... nysg is the newest comedian here

[MonkeyF0cker]

Correct it's the same logic used when a dipsh*t calls on the river needing a one outer just because he has "pot odds" even though the idiot goes broke going all in with a hand he has no business being in to begin with in poker. Once again...it's pathetic.

If he has equity, he's not an idiot.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Yeah. This thread needs to evacuate the Think Tank immediately.

[MonkeyF0cker]

lmaooooooooooooo

What's so funny?

[NYSportsGuy210]

now you are just messing with us, i think... nysg is the newest comedian here

You're an idiotic gambler.....your logic right off the bat is skewed to begin with from normal people pal. Keep chirping and wasting your time staring at lines all day. Your still gonna lose more than you win in the long run and end up like 96% of all of you out there who think line movement is your holy grail to winning