Danshan NBA Picks

[alekim]

11-21
Raptors -7.5

Are you counting Leonard to sit?

[danshan11]

no if Leonard sits which he is for sure now going to would move my line to 6.5 to 7, I had the Raptors at 10.5 with him playing.

[danshan11]

I am pretty sure I am going to be rich! I am hitting at about a 25% rate, that would be the greatest ever (75%) if I just faded the plays! LOL

[jets96]

keep working

[danshan11]

keep working

only bad thing that can happen is 48-52 anywhere else is GOLD!

[snapperman2]

I am pretty sure I am going to be rich! I am hitting at about a 25% rate, that would be the greatest ever (75%) if I just faded the plays! LOL

You're joking, but as Shakespeare said "Many a true word is spoken in jest". Your losing streak is close to being statistically significantly worse than 50%. If you keep on going like this for little longer then I will start fading you.

[danshan11]

You're joking, but as Shakespeare said "Many a true word is spoken in jest". Your losing streak is close to being statistically significantly worse than 50%. If you keep on going like this for little longer then I will start fading you.

20 total games is the sign of nothing and you are not looking at the significant measuring stick of line value.

[danshan11]

Date	Team	My Line	Bet at	Line	Closed at	Line	Result	CLV	Avg CLV
11/9	Nuggets	217	210.5	-105	215	-128	W	4.92%	1.36%
11/10	Bulls	220.5	213	-105	212	106	L	-2.68%	Wins
11/10	Grizzlies	213.5	208.5	-105	211	-125	W	4.34%	8
11/11	Hornets	224	221.5	100	221.5	-102	L	0.50%	Losses
11/12	Grizzlies	206.5	203.5	100	203	106	L	-1.46%	16
11/12	Kings	222	216.5	-105	220	-137	L	6.59%	Ties
11/14	Trailblazers	1	2.5	-105	2.5	-104	L	-0.14%	0
11/16	Heat	214.5	211	-105	213.5	-135	L	6.23%	Win %
11/16	Knicks	224	227	-105	227.5	-106	L	0.24%	33.33%
11/16	Knicks	6.5	10.5	-105	10.5	106	W	-2.68%
11/16	Raptors	217.5	214	-105	218	-143	W	7.63%
11/17	Nuggets	-1.5	1.5	-108	0	-120	L	2.62%
11/17	Pelicans	224	227	-105	227	-108	L	0.70%
11/17	Bulls	220.5	214.5	-105	-108	-108	L	0.70%
11/18	Wizards	221.5	224	-107	220.5	-128	L	4.45%
11/18	Warriors	220	216	-105	212.5	119	L	-5.56%
11/18	Knicks	212.5	217	-105	217.5	-101	L	-0.97%
11/19	Nuggets	224	228.5	-105	224.5	-123	W	3.94%
11/19	Mavericks	208	203.5	-105	200	114	L	-4.49%
11/20	Knicks	217	221.5	-107	220.5	-116	L	0.79%
11/21	Raptors	-6.5	-7.5	-102	-7.5	-110	W	1.89%
11/21	Nuggets	-1	1.5	-106	1	-112	W	1.37%
11/21	Pistons	7	9.5	-106	9	-118	W	2.67%
11/21	Nets	3	5.5	-106	5.5	-110	L	0.92%

[danshan11]

tomorrows Lines
I am doing totals 2 ways now but still same rule needs to be >2.9 for me to bet it
???? Green, Oladipo, Millsap

11/23		Timberwolves	-2.5
11/23		Nets	219	213.5
11/23		Grizzlies	214.5	215
11/23		Clippers	-6
11/23		Rockets	-3.5
11/23		Pistons	215	210
11/23		Pelicans	-6.5
11/23		Knicks	230	227.5
11/23		Cavaliers	218.5	218
11/23		Seventysixers	-12.5
11/23		Wizards	224.5	224
11/23		Raptors	-7.5
11/23		Celtics	-10
11/23		Hawks	220	221
11/23		Heat	-2
11/23		Bulls	215	212
11/23		Spurs	206.5	212
11/23		Pacers	-3.5
11/23		Hornets	222	218.5
11/23		Thunder	-3.5
11/23		Suns	226	228.5
11/23		Bucks	-15
11/23		Magic	213.5	219
11/23		Nuggets	-8
11/23		Jazz	220	213.5
11/23		Lakers	-1.5
11/23		Trailblazers	221	226.5
11/23		Warriors	-1

[danshan11]

posting early I am out later

11/23	Clippers	-3
11/23	Pistons	U218
11/23	Hornets	6
11/23	Thunder	U227
11/23	Wizards	10
11/23	Raptors	U228.5

[danshan11]

Lines 11-24

11/24		Nuggets	215	206
11/24		Thunder	-1.5
11/24		Kings	227	236
11/24		Warriors	-6

[danshan11]

11-24 Picks
Pelicans -1
Pelicans U239

[danshan11]

11-24 Record

Date	Team	My Line	Bet at	Line	Closed at	Line	Result	CLV	Avg CLV
11/9	Nuggets	217	210.5	-105	215	-128	W	4.92%	0.91%
11/10	Bulls	220.5	213	-105	212	106	L	-2.68%	Wins
11/10	Grizzlies	213.5	208.5	-105	211	-125	W	4.34%	11
11/11	Hornets	224	221.5	100	221.5	-102	L	0.50%	Losses
11/12	Grizzlies	206.5	203.5	100	203	106	L	-1.46%	19
11/12	Kings	222	216.5	-105	220	-137	L	6.59%	Ties
11/14	Trailblazers	1	2.5	-105	2.5	-104	L	-0.14%	0
11/16	Heat	214.5	211	-105	213.5	-135	L	6.23%	Win %
11/16	Knicks	224	227	-105	227.5	-106	L	0.24%	36.67%
11/16	Knicks	6.5	10.5	-105	10.5	106	W	-2.68%
11/16	Raptors	217.5	214	-105	218	-143	W	7.63%
11/17	Nuggets	-1.5	1.5	-108	0	-120	L	2.62%
11/17	Pelicans	224	227	-105	227	-108	L	0.70%
11/17	Bulls	220.5	214.5	-105	-108	-108	L	0.70%
11/18	Wizards	221.5	224	-107	220.5	-128	L	4.45%
11/18	Warriors	220	216	-105	212.5	119	L	-5.56%
11/18	Knicks	212.5	217	-105	217.5	-101	L	-0.97%
11/19	Nuggets	224	228.5	-105	224.5	-123	W	3.94%
11/19	Mavericks	208	203.5	-105	200	114	L	-4.49%
11/20	Knicks	217	221.5	-107	220.5	-116	L	0.79%
11/21	Raptors	-6.5	-7.5	-102	-7.5	-110	W	1.89%
11/21	Nuggets	-1	1.5	-106	1	-112	W	1.37%
11/21	Pistons	7	9.5	-106	9	-118	W	2.67%
11/21	Nets	3	5.5	-106	5.5	-110	L	0.92%
43427	Clippers	-6	-3	-105	-4.5	-130	W	4.08%
11/23	Pistons	215	218	-106	215	-149	L	7.16%
11/23	Raptors	224.5	228.5	-106	230.5	104	L	-3.66%
11/23	Hornets	3.5	6	-105	6.5	110	W	-4.82%
11/23	Thunder	222	227	-106	228.5	115	W	-6.16%
11/23	Wizards	7.5	10	-105	10.5	-102	L	-1.94%

[jets96]

went 5-3 yesterday didnt post them here.
i like n.o as well but davis ?
like chi ,we will see if i post it

[danshan11]

went 5-3 yesterday didnt post them here.
i like n.o as well but davis ?
like chi ,we will see if i post it

Davis was not out when I made that pick, and it looks like they will score 300 tonight my Under might be in trouble LOL

[danshan11]

Record

Date	Team	My Line	Bet at	Line	Closed at	Line	Result	CLV	Avg CLV
11/9	Nuggets	217	210.5	-105	215	-128	W	4.92%	0.81%
11/10	Bulls	220.5	213	-105	212	106	L	-2.68%	Wins
11/10	Grizzlies	213.5	208.5	-105	211	-125	W	4.34%	12
11/11	Hornets	224	221.5	100	221.5	-102	L	0.50%	Losses
11/12	Grizzlies	206.5	203.5	100	203	106	L	-1.46%	20
11/12	Kings	222	216.5	-105	220	-137	L	6.59%	Ties
11/14	Trailblazers	1	2.5	-105	2.5	-104	L	-0.14%	0
11/16	Heat	214.5	211	-105	213.5	-135	L	6.23%	Win %
11/16	Knicks	224	227	-105	227.5	-106	L	0.24%	37.50%
11/16	Knicks	6.5	10.5	-105	10.5	106	W	-2.68%
11/16	Raptors	217.5	214	-105	218	-143	W	7.63%
11/17	Nuggets	-1.5	1.5	-108	0	-120	L	2.62%
11/17	Pelicans	224	227	-105	227	-108	L	0.70%
11/17	Bulls	220.5	214.5	-105	-108	-108	L	0.70%
11/18	Wizards	221.5	224	-107	220.5	-128	L	4.45%
11/18	Warriors	220	216	-105	212.5	119	L	-5.56%
11/18	Knicks	212.5	217	-105	217.5	-101	L	-0.97%
11/19	Nuggets	224	228.5	-105	224.5	-123	W	3.94%
11/19	Mavericks	208	203.5	-105	200	114	L	-4.49%
11/20	Knicks	217	221.5	-107	220.5	-116	L	0.79%
11/21	Raptors	-6.5	-7.5	-102	-7.5	-110	W	1.89%
11/21	Nuggets	-1	1.5	-106	1	-112	W	1.37%
11/21	Pistons	7	9.5	-106	9	-118	W	2.67%
11/21	Nets	3	5.5	-106	5.5	-110	L	0.92%
43427	Clippers	-6	-3	-105	-4.5	-130	W	4.08%
11/23	Pistons	215	218	-106	215	-149	L	7.16%
11/23	Raptors	224.5	228.5	-106	230.5	104	L	-3.66%
11/23	Hornets	3.5	6	-105	6.5	110	W	-4.82%
11/23	Thunder	222	227	-106	228.5	115	W	-6.16%
11/23	Wizards	7.5	10	-105	10.5	-102	L	-1.94%
11/24	Pelicans	1.5	-1	-103	-3.5	121	L	-6.71%
11/24	Wizards	235	239	100	237.5	-130	W	5.30%

[danshan11]

11-25 Picks

Date	City	Teams	Mine	Bet Line
11/25		Magic	220	217
11/25		Suns	6.5	8.5
11/25		Heat	10	12
11/25		Knicks	210.5	207.5

[danshan11]

11-28 Lines

11/28		Knicks	226.5	234.5
11/28		Seventysixers	-10.5
11/28		Hawks	228.5	221
11/28		Hornets	-10
11/28		Jazz	-3.5
11/28		Nets	215.5	210.5
11/28		Spurs	215.5	224
11/28		Timberwolves	-3
11/28		Mavericks	213.5	208
11/28		Rockets	-6.5
11/28		Bulls	225	219
11/28		Bucks	-15.5
11/28		Cavaliers	213	212.5
11/28		Thunder	-13.5
11/28		Wizards	237.5	234
11/28		Pelicans	-4.5
11/28		Magic	215.5	211.5
11/28		Trailblazers	-7.5
11/28		Suns	225	226.5
11/28		Clippers	-10.5

Gordon, Nurkic, Paul and Mitchell ????

[danshan11]

11-28 Picks
Hawks Under 233
Bulls Under 229
Bucks -13.5

Cavaliers Under 216

[danshan11]

my record is getting too long I will post the whole thing like once a week or something but for now I will just put up these bad ass numbers!

Avg CLV
0.81%
Wins
12
Losses
20
Ties
0
Win %
37.50%

I know wins and losses mean a lot to many people but for me I am more concerned that I am not even covering the vig besides profit, if I cant change that around soon I will back out and look at my model, I have never seen my line value this bad ever but the NBA seems different for sure this year !

[danshan11]

here are my updated power rankings, they are pretty accurate!

Team	SAG	SAG	MY PR	BET/SAG	Combined
Rockets	91.32	-1.32	-5.27	-3.38	-4.01
Warriors	95.52	-5.52	-3.88	-4.86	-4.54
Raptors	96.93	-6.93	-7.65	-8.17	-7.99
Jazz	90.93	-0.93	-5.01	-3.09	-3.73
Trailblazers	92.37	-2.37	-5.35	-3.00	-3.78
Nuggets	95.2	-5.20	-5.44	-4.23	-4.64
Celtics	94.13	-4.13	-5.74	-5.04	-5.28
Thunder	93.96	-3.96	-5.64	-4.93	-5.16
Seventysixers	91.99	-1.99	-4.87	-3.92	-4.24
Cavaliers	83.89	6.11	5.18	6.63	6.15
Bucks	96.88	-6.88	-8.54	-7.23	-7.67
Wizards	87.62	2.38	-2.15	1.15	0.05
Spurs	89.27	0.73	-2.01	-0.60	-1.07
Clippers	93.04	-3.04	-3.74	-3.32	-3.46
Heat	87.33	2.67	-0.85	0.72	0.20
Timberwolves	90.28	-0.28	-3.74	-2.76	-3.09
Pacers	92.71	-2.71	-2.22	-2.78	-2.59
Pelicans	91.34	-1.34	-4.54	-2.29	-3.04
Hornets	90.88	-0.88	-3.25	-1.79	-2.27
Lakers	91.2	-1.20	-4.41	-3.52	-3.82
Pistons	89.28	0.72	1.01	-0.32	0.13
Mavericks	89.88	0.12	-0.89	0.55	0.07
Nets	87.07	2.93	1.07	2.94	2.32
Kings	87.48	2.52	1.12	3.68	2.83
Magic	87.13	2.87	0.85	3.01	2.29
Bulls	82.79	7.21	4.21	6.80	5.94
Knicks	84.99	5.01	2.26	4.62	3.83
Hawks	80.99	9.01	4.63	8.40	7.14
Suns	83.31	6.69	3.34	6.08	5.17
Grizzlies	90.32	-0.32	-2.36	-0.14	-0.88

[danshan11]

11-29
Warriors Under 226.5

[danshan11]

11-30 Lines

11/30		Wizards	232	232.5
11/30		Seventysixers	-7
11/30		Bulls	217.5	211.5
11/30		Pistons	-4.5
11/30		Cavaliers	210	207
11/30		Celtics	-13.5
11/30		Jazz	218.5	216.5
11/30		Hornets	-1
11/30		Grizzlies	-1
11/30		Nets	210.5	213
11/30		Pelicans	-2
11/30		Heat	229	231
11/30		Rockets	-1
11/30		Spurs	215	218
11/30		Hawks	223	218.5
11/30		Thunder	-14
11/30		Magic	-1.5
11/30		Suns	216	216
11/30		Mavericks	218.5	216.5
11/30		Lakers	-5.5
11/30		Nuggets	215.5	214
11/30		Trailblazers	-1.5

[danshan11]

lots of ???? still

Hill ???

Brown ???

NA

NA

Gasol ???

NA

NA

NA

Paul ???

NA

NA

NA

Gordon???

NA

NA

Ball???

Harris ???

NA

[coolguy73739]

11-29
Warriors Under 226.5

Seriously, what are you selling at 11-29 score Mate ?
You are pathetic at capping NBA totals is the least I can say Abt you..
I have heard enough of your BS chirping on all these threads..
Selling Burgers at McD will be a better option for you Mate..!
Do you even check what pace these two teams are gonna play at ?
With a combined tempo of 103.4, this game is a big time OVER..
GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR LIFE!

[danshan11]

Seriously, what are you selling at 11-29 score Mate ?
You are pathetic at capping NBA totals is the least I can say Abt you..
I have heard enough of your BS chirping on all these threads..
Selling Burgers at McD will be a better option for you Mate..!
Do you even check what pace these two teams are gonna play at ?
With a combined tempo of 103.4, this game is a big time OVER..
GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR LIFE!

what happened did mom ground you, why so upset at me and who the heck are you anyway?

oh so its simple just look at the pace of play and you win all the money, sounds perfect!

be nice tell mom you are sorry, tell her you wont leave the fridge open again and you promise you will look harder next week for a job!

only one thing matters in this game LINE VALUE, learn it breathe it read about it get it

[danshan11]

Seriously, what are you selling at 11-29 score Mate ?
You are pathetic at capping NBA totals is the least I can say Abt you..
I have heard enough of your BS chirping on all these threads..
Selling Burgers at McD will be a better option for you Mate..!
Do you even check what pace these two teams are gonna play at ?
With a combined tempo of 103.4, this game is a big time OVER..
GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR LIFE!

and its like magic dickelbow the line has dropped 2 points already because 226.5 was too high, get a clue brother and I am glad to help you if you need it!

[coolguy73739]

and its like magic dickelbow the line has dropped 2 points already because 226.5 was too high, get a clue brother and I am glad to help you if you need it!

You are frustrated as Hell.. All these arguments won't fetch you anything Bro.. You have no clue why lines are dropped or raised imo.. I can't believe at 11-29 you have guts to argue on what you do.. get educated or you will go down the drains like sewage flowing to the sea.. You are a Moron if you think I'm only looking at Pace when I said that game will be Over..
Pls save some money for your Breakfast tomorrow else look for some job seriously...
All these loose arguments won't help you a bit..
Show some good results or just STFU..

[danshan11]

You are frustrated as Hell.. All these arguments won't fetch you anything Bro.. You have no clue why lines are dropped or raised imo.. I can't believe at 11-29 you have guts to argue on what you do.. get educated or you will go down the drains like sewage flowing to the sea.. You are a Moron if you think I'm only looking at Pace when I said that game will be Over..
Pls save some money for your Breakfast tomorrow else look for some job seriously...
All these loose arguments won't help you a bit..
Show some good results or just STFU..

Ok slick so tell me why it dropped from 226 to 224?

[danshan11]

You are frustrated as Hell.. All these arguments won't fetch you anything Bro.. You have no clue why lines are dropped or raised imo.. I can't believe at 11-29 you have guts to argue on what you do.. get educated or you will go down the drains like sewage flowing to the sea.. You are a Moron if you think I'm only looking at Pace when I said that game will be Over..
Pls save some money for your Breakfast tomorrow else look for some job seriously...
All these loose arguments won't help you a bit..
Show some good results or just STFU..

also what are good results? you mean wins, most people with lack of knowledge in this game believe wins mean something, brother let me guide you to the glory path of BEATING THE LINE!

[coolguy73739]

Lol.. You are either a RETARD or a CRANKY as HELL..
I wish you all the very best in your endeavor of betting NBA totals with all my good heart..
PLS KEEP BEATING THE LINE TILL YOU GET TIRED AS HELL & ALL YOUR LOVED ONES LEAVE YOU ALONE TO ROT..
I'm too busy in my own life so sorry if I don't reply anymore again on your thread..
Show me some good results to prove me wrong.. all the very best Sir..

[danshan11]

Lol.. You are either a RETARD or a CRANKY as HELL..
I wish you all the very best in your endeavor of betting NBA totals with all my good heart..
PLS KEEP BEATING THE LINE TILL YOU GET TIRED AS HELL & ALL YOUR LOVED ONES LEAVE YOU ALONE TO ROT..
I'm too busy in my own life so sorry if I don't reply anymore again on your thread..
Show me some good results to prove me wrong.. all the very best Sir..

Thanks dude, you answered all the questions just like I figured!

[danshan11]

bets 11/30

Date	City	Teams	Mine	Bet Line
11/30		Mavericks	218.5	222
11/30		Lakers	-5.5	-3.5
11/30		Bulls	4.5	9.5

[danshan11]

12-2
Trailblazers +1

[danshan11]

12-2 Heat +4