Danshan NBA Picks

[jjgold]

I still think 50 to 70 plays a year you have an edge first to Guy betting daily

[danshan11]

assuming the NBA market is efficient I should end up having a slight edge but the problem I think in my very not educated at all opinion is that with say 200ish plays for the season, the results of 3 or 4 seasons could as easily be variance and not show the actual edge. So I take winning and losing at this with a grain of salt. It has to be a hobby whether I want it to be or not because there is not enough plays to make sure the variance bug wont get me.

[oilcountry99]

danshan11

How have sagarin's predictions performed against the line in the past? Do you happen to have any history on these stats, or where such information can be obtained. My thought is there are much smarter people than myself providing predictions/ratings etc. Ideally I should be able to use these to my advantage, I would be kidding myself that I could make a better line than people with more resources and computer knowledge than myself. The trick is finding the best source out there, and there's no shortage of options.

In my mind sharp books (pinnacle) historical information should be the key in creating predictions, all the data is in those lines. Not just for basketball but all sports. I just can't think of a way to harness this data and create a predictive model with it. Like I said there are many smarter and more tech savvy people out there than myself. At the end of the day sports are random and anything can happen...I often hear "PLAY NUMBERS NOT TEAMS". What's the right number? Who knows.

Thanks for all your contributions

[AlgoLady]

danshan11

How have sagarin's predictions performed against the line in the past? Do you happen to have any history on these stats, or where such information can be obtained. My thought is there are much smarter people than myself providing predictions/ratings etc. Ideally I should be able to use these to my advantage, I would be kidding myself that I could make a better line than people with more resources and computer knowledge than myself. The trick is finding the best source out there, and there's no shortage of options.

In my mind sharp books (pinnacle) historical information should be the key in creating predictions, all the data is in those lines. Not just for basketball but all sports. I just can't think of a way to harness this data and create a predictive model with it. Like I said there are many smarter and more tech savvy people out there than myself. At the end of the day sports are random and anything can happen...I often hear "PLAY NUMBERS NOT TEAMS". What's the right number? Who knows.



Thanks for all your contributions

[danshan11]

danshan11

How have sagarin's predictions performed against the line in the past? Do you happen to have any history on these stats, or where such information can be obtained. My thought is there are much smarter people than myself providing predictions/ratings etc. Ideally I should be able to use these to my advantage, I would be kidding myself that I could make a better line than people with more resources and computer knowledge than myself. The trick is finding the best source out there, and there's no shortage of options.

In my mind sharp books (pinnacle) historical information should be the key in creating predictions, all the data is in those lines. Not just for basketball but all sports. I just can't think of a way to harness this data and create a predictive model with it. Like I said there are many smarter and more tech savvy people out there than myself. At the end of the day sports are random and anything can happen...I often hear "PLAY NUMBERS NOT TEAMS". What's the right number? Who knows.

Thanks for all your contributions

the thing is the sag ratings are good but they do not count injuries and or rest.

so using them alone is probably not advised, I would say there are a few key things you need to model correctly

1 power rankings, I say best bet is probably a combination of a few statfox, sag and maybe one or two others
2 injury adjustments
3 accurate rest adjustments
if you do these 3 things you will create a semi fair line

[JayandCaitti]

Nice work. Keep it up.

[danshan11]

the betsag to me is the most interesting ranking system I use, it counts the previous game lines and puts it up against the sag lines to create an average and if you look at lines that are out today or tomorrow you will see using the betsag line you get really close to what the line will be

[oilcountry99]

the betsag to me is the most interesting ranking system I use, it counts the previous game lines and puts it up against the sag lines to create an average and if you look at lines that are out today or tomorrow you will see using the betsag line you get really close to what the line will be

What do you mean by previous game lines?
-Previous matchups between the two teams
-last X amount of games average line for each team

Would you be willing to provide a positive example?

[danshan11]

i mean the avg line of that specific team in their last 10 games, it basically shows the bettor support of that team against a regular power ranking

[oilcountry99]

[danshan11]

although that is interesting to me I just look at it but I actually use my power rankings to place bets

[danshan11]

tomorrow's lines I counted for Curry and a couple Spurs injuries

11/15		Rockets	-3.5	220.5
11/15		Nuggets	-14	221.5
11/15		Clippers	-6	219

this was a mistake when I posted it I had Rockets +1.5 and added 2 for curry and wrote -3.5 when it should Rockets -.5 and I hope people know these are not picks these are just my lines for the next days games! I post picks separate

[jets96]

good job pal .

[danshan11]

on what all i been doing is floating unlike you who wins at every sport everyday. Its ok there is justice you like the Jets, that is enough punishment for anyone

[danshan11]

hey Jets I did a 500 dollar experiment this am with intl ball kinda did not work out, LOL

Galatasaray vs. Ratiopharm Ulm	104	AGAINST Galatasaray -3 1H	18.027	11/14/2018 9:48	11/14/2018 11:59	L
Ventspils vs. Nizhny Novgorod	113	ON Ventspils -1 1H	19.420	11/14/2018 9:23	11/14/2018 11:59	L
BC Minsk 2006 vs. Balkan Botevgrad	105	AGAINST BC Minsk 2006 -7.5	20.870	11/14/2018 9:06	11/14/2018 12:00	L
UU-Korihait vs. Tampereen Pyrinto	125	AGAINST UU-Korihait +13	15.029	11/14/2018 9:53	11/14/2018 12:30	L
UU-Korihait vs. Tampereen Pyrinto	115	AGAINST UU-Korihait +12.5	16.322	11/14/2018 9:52	11/14/2018 12:30	L

[danshan11]

hey Jets I did a 500 dollar experiment this am with intl ball kinda did not work out, LOL

Galatasaray vs. Ratiopharm Ulm	104	AGAINST Galatasaray -3 1H	18.027	11/14/2018 9:48	11/14/2018 11:59	L
Ventspils vs. Nizhny Novgorod	113	ON Ventspils -1 1H	19.420	11/14/2018 9:23	11/14/2018 11:59	L
BC Minsk 2006 vs. Balkan Botevgrad	105	AGAINST BC Minsk 2006 -7.5	20.870	11/14/2018 9:06	11/14/2018 12:00	L
UU-Korihait vs. Tampereen Pyrinto	125	AGAINST UU-Korihait +13	15.029	11/14/2018 9:53	11/14/2018 12:30	L
UU-Korihait vs. Tampereen Pyrinto	115	AGAINST UU-Korihait +12.5	16.322	11/14/2018 9:52	11/14/2018 12:30	L

think I better stick to the NBA LOL

[danshan11]

although did OK on the lines LMAO

Game	Line	Runner	Bet	Match Date	Settle Date	Result	CL Line
Galatasaray vs. Ratiopharm Ulm	104	AGAINST Galatasaray -3 1H	18.027	11/14/2018 9:48	11/14/2018 11:59	L	-101
Ventspils vs. Nizhny Novgorod	113	ON Ventspils -1 1H	19.420	11/14/2018 9:23	11/14/2018 11:59	L	108
BC Minsk 2006 vs. Balkan Botevgrad	105	AGAINST BC Minsk 2006 -7.5	20.870	11/14/2018 9:06	11/14/2018 12:00	L	106
UU-Korihait vs. Tampereen Pyrinto	125	AGAINST UU-Korihait +13	15.029	11/14/2018 9:53	11/14/2018 12:30	L	117
UU-Korihait vs. Tampereen Pyrinto	115	AGAINST UU-Korihait +12.5	16.322	11/14/2018 9:52	11/14/2018 12:30	L	106

[jets96]

omg sorry about that ....

[danshan11]

hey if I cant win div 3 french high school basketball or whatever this shit is, I should not be betting anyway, LOL

[danshan11]

I could not even curse at them cause I cant pronounce the team name! LOL

[danshan11]

this was a mistake when I posted it I had Rockets +1.5 and added 2 for curry and wrote -3.5 when it should Rockets -.5 and I hope people know these are not picks these are just my lines for the next days games! I post picks separate

looks like Green is out he is worth about 1.5 so now we are at -2 for that game

[danshan11]

11-16 Lines include up to now injury news

11/16		Nets	223
11/16		Wizards	-6
11/16		Heat	214.5
11/16		Pacers	-5
11/16		Jazz	-0.5
11/16		Seventysixers	218
11/16		Raptors	-0.5
11/16		Celtics	217.5
11/16		Trailblazers	-2
11/16		Timberwolves	224
11/16		Kings	215
11/16		Grizzlies	-5.5
11/16		Knicks	224
11/16		Pelicans	-6.5
11/16		Bulls	223.5
11/16		Bucks	-14

[danshan11]

Current Results as of 11-15

11/9	Nuggets	217	210.5	-105	215	-128	W	4.92%
11/10	Bulls	220.5	213	-105	212	106	L	-2.68%
11/10	Grizzlies	213.5	208.5	-105	211	-125	W	4.34%
11/11	Hornets	224	221.5	100	221.5	-102	L	0.50%
11/12	Grizzlies	206.5	203.5	100	203	106	L	-1.46%
11/12	Kings	222	216.5	-105	220	-137	L	6.59%
11/14	Trailblazers	1	2.5	-105	2.5	-104	L	-0.14%

[jjgold]

The nba such a long grind

[snapperman2]

Danshan, you might have more luck handicapping smaller markets like minor NCAAB teams. Winning in the NBA is going to be very hard.

[danshan11]

Danshan, you might have more luck handicapping smaller markets like minor NCAAB teams. Winning in the NBA is going to be very hard.

I have always won in the NBA, its just a long process, my line value is there, the wins will come!

you can look at my lines for tomorrow as soon as they come out and you will see how good they are, this is very indicative of someone who is close to winning, only issue is you can always have the variance issue creep up on you!

[AlgoLady]

Looking forward to my point being proven that you do not need to beat the closing numbers to be a winner (yes I no small sample size thus far) but from your posted plays and "experiment" plays your (2-10) and you beat the line in more than 65-70% of the games. Beating the NBA is very hard to do I no you say you always won in the NBA but I highly doubt you just don't win regularly in the NBA unless your Bob Voulgaris.

[danshan11]

I should not say I always win in the NBA because at any time variance can get me. I will beat the line in the NBA regularly and that should if the gods feel fair to me should net me positive on the season. I am 2-5 so far that is seven games. The problem with your point being proven is even if you win or I win or we both lose it will prove nothing because it is a matter of a few 100 records and that is nothing. I know guys who dont know what a coin flip is and they won 10-15 straight games ATS. the only indicator we have at this point of skill is beating the line, nothing else proves you can win that we know of yet accept to win 100000 games which is hard to do!

[and24]

i couldn't understand exactly your model. Will read it later again. GL.

[danshan11]

11-16
Knicks under 227
Raptors over 214

[danshan11]

11-16
Heat Over 211
Celtics Over 213.5
Knicks +10.5

[danshan11]

Sorry late for tomorrow lines I think BOL is out already on some

11/17		Clippers	-2.5
11/17		Nets	224.5
11/17		Lakers	-4.5
11/17		Magic	223
11/17		Hawks	219
11/17		Pacers	-13.5
11/17		Nuggets	-3.5
11/17		Pelicans	222
11/17		Seventysixers	225.5
11/17		Hornets	-0.5
11/17		Jazz	209.5
11/17		Celtics	-2
11/17		Kings	219
11/17		Rockets	-11
11/17		Raptors	-9.5
11/17		Bulls	220.5
11/17		Warriors	-3.5
11/17		Mavericks	220
11/17		Thunder	-6.5
11/17		Suns	216.5

Westbrook and Morris are still ifs and those numbers could move on whether they play or not

[jets96]

like some of your numbers ...they line up with mine..

[danshan11]

good I hope we both win!!!

[jets96]

how come no utah