[Ralphie Halves]

I think there's more value on Sonnen than people think. There have been very few fighters that realize that the only way to beat Silva is to close the distance at every turn AND that still have the skill to dominate him inside. Silva's impressive victories have come on people that think it's a good idea to slug with him, or inferior ground fighters. Sonnen not being on PEDs anymore gives Silva a slight edge, but there's value in betting Sonnen.

[Ralphie Halves]

Losing Faber/Barao and simply not replacing it makes me not want to buy this card, but the main event should be epic. I survived a Silva bet while in vegas last time and won't be doing that again. Sonnen by Dec. if the price is huge if not laying off.

Yeah, pretty arrogant not giving us something in its place, I agree. Smart move however, knowing that they won't be taking any real losses by doing it this way since the ME is so big.

[muldoon]

I think there's more value on Sonnen than people think. There have been very few fighters that realize that the only way to beat Silva is to close the distance at every turn AND that still have the skill to dominate him inside. Silva's impressive victories have come on people that think it's a good idea to slug with him, or inferior ground fighters. Sonnen not being on PEDs anymore gives Silva a slight edge, but there's value in betting Sonnen.

If you watch the previous fight, a person would have to be insane to not throw some on Sonnen.

[Ralphie Halves]

If you watch the previous fight, a person would have to be insane to not throw some on Sonnen.

Yep, I think the big question is now (like the Merlin avatar BTW) is when do you bet it? Do you wait for the Brazilians to get to Vegas and let them pound Silva? This is the time where they normally vacation anyway, so there may be more in town than you'd think.

[Vitooch]

Didnt know everyone at SBR is an MMA expert now

[muldoon]

Yep, I think the big question is now (like the Merlin avatar BTW) is when do you bet it? Do you wait for the Brazilians to get to Vegas and let them pound Silva? This is the time where they normally vacation anyway, so there may be more in town than you'd think.

Good insight about their vacations. My friend is Brazilian and works at The Palms, he's been telling me for weeks about everyone coming up. Took you to clue me in though - duh.

I'm only going to bet a small amount on Sonnen anyway, so a major line move won't cost me much. (He's +228 for me right now)

[Vaughany]

Didnt know everyone at SBR is an MMA expert now

haha

[DublinMeUp]

Didnt know everyone at SBR is an MMA expert now

I think I'll just blindly tail them, they seem to know their stuff

[hels]

I'm surprised at the line favoring Silva so much. I wouldn't put any money on Silva before the fight. There might be some value betting him in-fight.

[Bill Dozer]

Didnt know everyone at SBR is an MMA expert now

Don't want to offend any UFC purists here. We'll cap American Idol or Cup Cake wars...doesnt matter. =)

[sportsfanatic]

i hope the ufc sets up silva vs jones if silva wins.

[Kaladarus]

The last fight Silva pulled off a submission fairly easy. Sonnen has 8 submission losses on his record.(he never learns) If you watch some of Sonnen's fights where he didn't get submitted there were several where he almost got submitted by guys with a non existent ground game.

Many of Sonnen's takedowns were setup the same way in the last fight. The main reason for the success of the takedowns was probably because Silva wasn't expecting Sonnen to disrespect his striking so much. Sonnen was going in wildly with his chin in the air against a superior striker. Sonnen ended up catching Silva with punches and unexpected takedowns.

If Sonnen has a similar game plan it should be safe to say that Silva will adjust to it. If he changes his game plan he becomes just like all the other fighters that have a problem taking Silva down or closing the distance. Sonnen's last strategy caught Silva off guard, it's unlikely this will happen again. Sonnen also has to go 5 high paced rounds without getting KO'd or submitted. It's possible Sonnen makes it to a decision, but with bad striking and possibly the worse submission defense in the division, I don't think he makes it a decision that often.

[KushMoney]

Chael Sonnen vs Anderson Silva - 5 rounds - UFC 148 propositions
Sat 7/7		1003 Sonnen/Silva goes 5 round distance		+190
11:59PM		1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance		-250
Sat 7/7		1005 Sonnen wins inside distance		+615
11:59PM		1006 Not Sonnen inside distance		-1085
Sat 7/7		1007 Sonnen wins by 5 round decision		+365
11:59PM		1008 Not Sonnen by 5 round decision		-505
Sat 7/7		1009 Silva wins inside distance		-154
11:59PM		1010 Not Silva inside distance		+124
Sat 7/7		1011 Silva wins by 5 round decision		+553
11:59PM		1012 Not Silva by 5 round decision		-930
Sat 7/7		1013 Sonnen/Silva draw		+8000
11:59PM		1014 Fight not a draw		-21500
Sat 7/7		1015 Sonnen wins in round 1		+1425
11:59PM		1016 Any other result		-3825
Sat 7/7		1017 Sonnen wins in round 2		+1725
11:59PM		1018 Any other result		-5175
Sat 7/7		1019 Sonnen wins in round 3		+2400
11:59PM		1020 Any other result		-7200
Sat 7/7		1021 Sonnen wins in round 4		+3450
11:59PM		1022 Any other result		-13150
Sat 7/7		1023 Sonnen wins in round 5		+5000
11:59PM		1024 Any other result		-20000
Sat 7/7		1025 Silva wins in round 1		+325
11:59PM		1026 Any other result		-475
Sat 7/7		1027 Silva wins in round 2		+425
11:59PM		1028 Any other result		-675
Sat 7/7		1029 Silva wins in round 3		+550
11:59PM		1030 Any other result		-1050
Sat 7/7		1031 Silva wins in round 4		+850
11:59PM		1032 Any other result		-1750
Sat 7/7		1033 Silva wins in round 5		+1250
11:59PM		1034 Any other result		-2750
Sat 7/7		1035 Sonnen wins by submission		+1820
11:59PM		1036 Any other result		-5450
Sat 7/7		1037 Sonnen wins by TKO/KO		+755
11:59PM		1038 Any other result		-1595
Sat 7/7		1039 Silva wins by submission		+402
11:59PM		1040 Any other result		-605
Sat 7/7		1041 Silva wins by TKO/KO		+120
11:59PM		1042 Any other result		-160
Sat 7/7		1043 Sonnen wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec.		+437
11:59PM		1044 Any other result		-710
Sat 7/7		1045 Sonnen wins by 5 rnd split/majority dec.		+1400
11:59PM		1046 Any other result		-3600
Sat 7/7		1047 Silva wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec.		+610
11:59PM		1048 Any other result		-1230
Sat 7/7		1049 Silva wins by 5 rnd split/majority dec.		+2350
11:59PM		1050 Any other result		-7050
Sat 7/7		1051 Sonnen/ Silva starts round 5		+155
11:59PM		1052 Fight won't start round 5		-195
Sat 7/7		1053 Sonnen/Silva starts round 4		+100
11:59PM		1054 Fight won't start round 4		-140
Sat 7/7		1055 Sonnen/Silva starts round 3		-160
11:59PM		1056 Fight won't start round 3		+120
Sat 7/7		1057 Sonnen/Silva starts round 2		-380
11:59PM		1058 Fight won't start round 2		+260

[Bill Dozer]

i hope the ufc sets up silva vs jones if silva wins.

Could Silva put on that much weight? Jones seems too tall and already fights light for his frame.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Could Silva put on that much weight? Jones seems too tall and already fights light for his frame.

Silva fought at 205 lbs at UFC 101 vs Forrest Griffin.

Internet folklore (per some googlin') suggests Spider's walking around weight is in the 220-230 range...

In conclusion, yes, it's 100% possible for Spider to fight at 205 vs Bones Jones.

[Bill Dozer]

I rather see that one than St Pierre vs Silva. Maybe if they made Silva the highest paid fighter ever?

[Kaladarus]

These super fight talks have been going on for a while. GSP has a lot of new talent that would make for some interesting fights in his division. Silva is thinking retirement after his contract is done.(I think 5 fights) Jones would take the Silva fight, but I'm not sure Silva is interested.

Silva has fought several times at 205. He walks a little heavier than that. If you look at him in his fights at 205 he looks like he is carrying excess weight when you compare him to his 185 fights. I think Jones is a bad match up for Silva. It seems like he has good submission defense and his wrestling and size should be able to take Silva down. Silva can maybe get something going on the feet and it would probably be a great fight, but I don't think it will happen.

At this point in his career Silva has said that he wants to stay in his division and it's hard to see him risking his unbeaten UFC record with so few fights left. I'd like to see Silva against anyone. Even Silva against JDS would be a great fight to see. I don't see any super fight happening though except for maybe Jones eventually moving up.

[Bill Dozer]

It doesn't seem likely particularly because Silva would be a huge dog. He loses his reach advantage by a ton and doesnt gain much advantage by carrying around that weight. But maybe his big farewell paycheck? He does it for fun and is out win or lose?

[Vitooch]

Jones is too big for Anderson. If Anderson could manage to finish Jones, then he undoubtedly is the greatest mixd martial artist of all time, if not already.

I know GSP is an intelligent enough athlete to pack on weight properly for a fight at 185, but I think Anderson will be too big for GSP

[Vitooch]

I like Anderson by submission at +402

Anderson ITD is the safer pick though

[PunisherIND]

It doesn't seem likely particularly because Silva would be a huge dog. He loses his reach advantage by a ton and doesnt gain much advantage by carrying around that weight. But maybe his big farewell paycheck? He does it for fun and is out win or lose?

anderson has already said he would rather let his teammates (machida and lil nog) deal with jon jones. there seems to be a mutual respect between the two of them so i dont think either will be pushing for the fight. but i guess money talks.

[bktrembath]

I certainly wouldn't write off Sonnen. His wrestling skills are amazing and he dominated for most of their last bout. I always wonder if somebody who has just been through a big legal battle like that can shake off all the distractions.

[bjpenn85]

Most important point with this matchup is that sonnen has shown his tactic to silva. While silva can do everything, sonnen can only wrestle. That is a huge problem for sonnen. He want to go out and wrestle but silva already know that, and can prepare for it, like bisping did. Sonnen didnt look so good against Bisping in my opinion, if you ask me, i scored that fight to bisping. This time around we well see the development of silva. He lost the fight more or less for 4 rounds and can now make the necessary adjustments. Sonnen obviously want to do exactly the same but that isnt enough. Rematches very very seldom looks like the first fight So what can sonnen do to alter his game and win against silva? KO him out. Can he? probably not.