[xelemental]

I have a money management question.

If you had a bankroll of $25k but only wanted to stop when you win $5k, how big do you guys bet each game? giving two points for every good response.

[GunShard]

I spot bet, I would bet 1.1k per ATS game until you reach 5k. It takes a lot more bets when betting heavily juiced money line favorites.

[biggie12]

if your willing to have the full bankroll online and dont care to wait out the profit. With hard work u can make 5k~ a month 0 risk, becomes harder if u are in the US.

[biggie12]

oh btw 1k is not a good idea with 25k one little bad run and you'll be chasing to win that 5k untill ur broke.


$250-500 max more appropriate.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I would say at least 3% of your bankroll or about $750 a play. $250-$500 max a play seems too low. If you start off cold I could see downsizing to 1% of your roll for a while, but it would frustrating to be wagering just 1% if you are hot. Keep in mind this quote "Play long enough the house takes you. Unless when that perfect hand comes, you bet Big- Then you take the House."

[iifold]

Buy Microsoft Stock...

Stop Gambling for a little while...

Sell Microsoft Stock...

[stikymess]

A missing part is how soon you want/need this 5k ?

Only you know your abilities with handicapping, I think biggie stated it best when he said 250-500 range, I think 1k a little steep with only 25k could lead to chasing if you start off poorly.

If a Euro, is bonus whoring still alive and well?

[Ghenghis Kahn]

$500 a game. gl

2% bet is ideal.

[xelemental]

cool thanks everyone for the ideas!

[PickWinnerAllDay]

All in on -500 line.

[Duff85]

We are betting with a similar sized starting bankroll. We started out at $200 bets and have moved that up to $300 and soon $400 wagers. The key is betting with an edge and turnover. Make lots of $200 or $300 wagers and you should somewhat limit your variance (although you will still do massive swings from time to time). We're aiming at a turnover of around $150,000 in each of June and July - this is due to the fact that it is ultra quiet and we do not bet much baseball. This month we are up just under $1,000 with $97,000 in turnover, last month we did closer to $200,000 in turnover got hot and won around $26,000 (Running like god obv - of course we got limited at a few places.) This month results are much more like we would expect - we think we can hit around 2% ROI long term.

[PickWinnerAllDay]

Who is this we?

[Duff85]

Who is this we?

My betting partner and I. We have pooled resources in order to make it a bit more efficient and not take over so much of our lives - lot of work.

[Duff85]

Also try and spread your bets out over multiple books if you can get similar odds so they are smaller at each book - you really want to fly under the radar. When you start losing outs, you will not be able to get your turnover in as easily.

[xelemental]

Duff85, what books do you use or do you live in VEgas where you can just freely do this? Im in the US and I dont trust my money with online books.

[Ernie Mccracken]

Bet on Pacquiao to beat Bradley.

[biggie12]

We are betting with a similar sized starting bankroll. We started out at $200 bets and have moved that up to $300 and soon $400 wagers. The key is betting with an edge and turnover. Make lots of $200 or $300 wagers and you should somewhat limit your variance (although you will still do massive swings from time to time). We're aiming at a turnover of around $150,000 in each of June and July - this is due to the fact that it is ultra quiet and we do not bet much baseball. This month we are up just under $1,000 with $97,000 in turnover, last month we did closer to $200,000 in turnover got hot and won around $26,000 (Running like god obv - of course we got limited at a few places.) This month results are much more like we would expect - we think we can hit around 2% ROI long term.

Nobody else finds anything odd about this ??

[Duff85]

Duff85, what books do you use or do you live in VEgas where you can just freely do this? Im in the US and I dont trust my money with online books.

Yeah being in the US def makes it harder. I'm in Australia where we have pretty liberal laws on sports betting - we have accounts at a heap of bookmakers - so that makes it easier. We do a number of things to get our edge - but if you can find an edge of any variety you will make 5k eventually, provided you bet within bankroll etc.

Nobody else finds anything odd about this ??

???

[jjgold]

Duffy nice strategy and nice work

What are top Aussie books you play at??

[Duff85]

Duffy nice strategy and nice work

What are top Aussie books you play at??

Have found Sportingbet (and Centrebet) since they share the same lines to be pretty soft - SportsBet probably the most soft. TattsBet have collared us pretty hard on Asian Handicaps and Tennis so that makes it hard, but I can walk into the TattsBet shop up the road if I want to get down some anonymous action. The NSW and Vic TAB is easily sharpest Aus bookmaker.

Would probably put 50% of our action or more through Sportsbet, Sportingbet AU and Centrebet.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

For 20% bankroll growth, assuming -110 and 55%:


1/4 Kelly: 350 plays, median +$5k, 21% chance of losing money
1/3 Kelly: 280 plays, median +$5k, 24% chance of losing money.
2/5 Kelly: 235 plays, median +$5k, 28% chance of losing money.
1/2 Kelly: 200 plays, median +$5k, 30% chance of losing money.

[InTheDrink]

There is no such thing as a safe way

[Powderguy]

What??

[NYSportsGuy210]

Just pick winners baby. Selectivity is the key and know what information to trust from what people or information sites about what it is you are betting.

It all depends on how quick you need the money too.

[dice]

I have a money management question.

If you had a bankroll of $25k but only wanted to stop when you win $5k, how big do you guys bet each game? giving two points for every good response.

Wait for college football season. Play $2,500 moneylines that are -300 to -500. There's no such thing as a sure thing so understand that you can still lose some of your principal.

[Bigbill365]

yeah wait for football season but you wont be getting no -300 to -500 on a sure pick like Alabama vs Ohio so with that kind of bankroll def stick with ML since you can afford to lay more juice.P.S always buy the hook if your playing the spread

[Nick Papageorgio]

Spot scalp in tennis using various different books.

[Killer_Demo]

1000 dollar 2 teamers

[wantitall4moi]

you can do it in 2 or 3 weeks if you have the books to bet at and can take the right leads in baseball. basically risk free.

With 25K you should be looking to take 3 leads for the max you can withstand. So if you have lines like -115, +125, -130 you would be looking to have 4000 or so on the -115 line (you always assume a 5 cent buy back but obviously if the line moves more you rixk less, bot for a 4K lead you would have around 7400 total with a +120 buyback. With the +120 youre looking at a mirror of that so you lead with 3400 and look to buy back at -115 so that would give you 4000 there. With the -130 youre looking at a 4500 or so lead with a total of just under 7900 in action on that game. So in the end with simple nickle moves youre going to have roughly 22700 in action and looking to get back around 240 in profits. Obviously bigger moves effect profits and even 'investments' greatly, but you want to use the nickle rule of thumb, because sometimes you might have to 'eat a penny or two if you 'guess' wrong and have to buy back at a less than profitable number. But basically with this youre looking to average 200-250 a day and thus 20-25 days you'll have youre 5K profit.

[jjgold]

Wanty not easy taking leads

Say the line moved against you too much now your stuck with bet

[Ryeskernatorr]

I would place an average bet of $400-$600 and not bet unless there was a game you felt pretty confident about. Assuming you don't have a strict time restriction of when you'd need the 5k you could pick the best matchups to favor your chances. Don't force any bets for the sake of betting.

[wantitall4moi]

Wanty not easy taking leads

Say the line moved against you too much now your stuck with bet

you can still get out for not much loss. Even if you bet 4K on a game and it doesnt go your way you can usually find some place you can get out from under it for less than a nickle. That is really the biggest reason to have a few out of the way places, not for the scalps on positive numbers but for the negative ones.

But the volatility these days makes that hard to do, baseball lines move around like a roller coaster these days, they go up and down and up again then they get hammered the last few minutes before first pitch. You dont even have to bet over nights anymore to get the extremes as some games take quick hits one way then land slide back the other way.

Its all about volume and diminishing risk of ruin. Unless youre really really bad you will never go broke, you have to be really bad just to lose money. You wont get rich quick but you certainly wont get buried either. It is obviously for people who just want to collect money it isnt for action junkies or degenerates that like to brag about plays they make. But it keeps you in the game and builds your bankroll to let you have funds to play those games when you spot one.