[stevenash]

Shaun Marcum has been steady all season, not lights out, but steady all year.
Marcum has only given up more than 3 earned runs once in 12 starts.
Entering tonight's game, Marcum has a steady 3.50 ERA, solid 1.21 WH/IP ratio, strikes out one an inning, while sporting a 5 and 3 record.
He's probably the most steady pitcher in the majors, his ERA and WH/IP this season are almost identical to his career numbers. You know going into every season the guy will have a 3.5 ERA and a 1.2 WH/IP at the end of the year.
I like strike out pitchers versus a team that strikes out a lot, and KC does a lot of whiffing.
He's faced Gordon nine times, struck him out four, I really don't think KC will give him trouble at all this evening.

KC trots out Luke Hochevar, and even though I don't like the term 'gas can', it applies.
Let's just say his pitches don't miss many bats.
Hochevar sports and butt ugly 6.57 ERA, a just as ugly 1.56 WH/IP ratio, and doesn't really strike out many.\
The game is in Kaufman, where Hochevar has not had any success this season, actually he's awful at home.

Home ERA is 10.23, his home WH/IP is 1.73, those are as bad as numbers as it gets.

I am fully aware that the Brewers have been underachieving all season, I just can't see them with Marcum, against Hochevar, losing two straight to KC, getting swept tonight.

Brewers have enough sticks with Weeks, Hart, Aoki, A-Ram and Braun to get more than enough runs tonight.
Brews have not been money makers all season, but love them tonight in this spot.
Marcum should have his way with the KC line up, I don't see Hochevar getting past six innings.

One very important thing to consider, and this is probably the most important point I am going to make in this post.
Last night's game was an 11 inning marathon, KC lifted their starter Sanchez after 5 innings.
KC had to use 5 different relievers for six innings.
Royal bull pen tonight is both depleted and tired.
Hochevar is not an innings eater, if he gets shelled early, he may have to take one for the team and continue to get shelled
Marcum has a rubber arm, he routinely .throws 115 pitches a game, even though the Brews used their bull pen for 4 innings last night, Marcum can go all nine.

Bullpens (or lack of availability) needs to be factored in tonight more so than most games I handicap.

Brewers -113 is my play of the evening.

Straight Wager

120094483

MLB[915] MIL BREWERS Action -115 $288.00 $250.00

[morningmoney]

Thanks for checking in on this game, Nash. I was liking this play - Great point on Hochevar and the bullpen. He's only gone 7 inn once this year and hasn't made it past the 5th in 2 of his last 3 games.

[DoubleRedDragon]

on it too....

[stevenash]

^
In baseball, there is no such thing as a lock, I can tell you stories that would make your hair curl, like the time Larry McWilliams (who was 4-13 at the time) beat me on a two hit complete shutout, but on paper, this one sure looks good.

Let's get it done tonight.

[jlee]

Gotta love this pick, at -113 there's great value on the brewers. Maybe because KC won the first two in this series? Marcum is solid. KC is 10-20 at home. I don't see a sweep happening. Last night they got lucky on a blown save, tonight, it's not going to be the same story.

[stevenash]

^
Agreed, I was expecting -125, -113 is a nice price.

[Brock Landers]

not gunna fade you, lets get some!

[Utah_Jay]

Thanks for the write up will tail on this one

[Sambooka]

Nash... i like the play, i'm on it as well.

What do you think of the 1st Five inning play? Marcum vs. Hochevar

i'm just worried about the bull-pen and what happened last night

[russiaboss]

On KC +1/2 1st 5 innings GL

[stevenash]

^
2-2 at the end of five gets you a cash.

I've been known to play a few of those first five innings + 1/2 runs wagers myself.

OK, here's to a 2-2 game after five, 4-2 Brews win.

BoL

[russiaboss]

^
2-2 at the end of five gets you a cash.

I've been known to play a few of those first five innings + 1/2 runs wagers myself.

OK, here's to a 2-2 game after five, 4-2 Brews win.

BoL

Sounds like a perfect plan

[good2go2mexico]

It has been very profitable betting against Hochevar this season. I'm on this.

[BuddyBear]

Careful guys. Marcum has been up and down most of the year. Brewers, like the Royals, are a very weak team and are currently in bad form.

[a4u2fear]

thanks steve, always appreciated.

[Jeffie]

ML and with a parlay lets cash this.

[BennyFang]

^
In baseball, there is no such thing as a lock, I can tell you stories that would make your hair curl, like the time Larry McWilliams (who was 4-13 at the time) beat me on a two hit complete shutout, but on paper, this one sure looks good.

Let's get it done tonight.

Larry McWilliams? Wow, that's a blast from the past. I remember him pitching for the Braves, a scrawny lefty. Think he had some decent years in Pittsburgh.

[thekidfanky]

Tailing!!

[Ron29301]

I'm on your side this evening buddy. Lets get it. ML 2x

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i'm passing on this game. the market thinks kc will sweep.

[faheemrob]

I'm on it too.... love it

[JMon]

Like it...Marcum is a good bounce back pitcher after giving up 2 or more HRs as the Brewers are 14-1 since 6-09-07 in his next start. Brewers are 14-0 since April of '11 as a fav after giving up a lead in an evening game. Thought I would dig up how the Royals do trying for a 3 game home sweep as dog. Well...lol. let's just say it doesn't happen very often. In matter of fact, they havent' had a Home sweep opportunity as a dog since 2009, but are 9-8 since 2004.

bol

[mngambler]

great analysis..tailing for a Unit, fyi for those with multiple books youwager has it at -108 right now

[Jeff Grant]

The line movement on this game is starting to scare the daylights out of me

[rumnblack]

I love this play, BOL

[mngambler]

great analysis..tailing for a Unit, fyi for those with multiple books youwager has it at -108 right now

edit: just moved down to -105....hmm

[Ghenghis Kahn]

The line movement on this game is starting to scare the daylights out of me

most on here don't think line moves matter though. let's see, marcum better pitcher than hochevar, milwacky better offense than kc, kc hasn't swept milwacky since birth of jesus, majority of the public on milwacky, but still the line moves 25 points towards kc. hmmmmm...

[JMon]

quite frankly, it's starting to scare the daylights out of me as well.. we shall see!

[remeedella]

apparently i hit a big over 8.5 bet on milwaukee and I cant cancel and its an accident
do I do a big hedge out?

[JMon]

apparently i hit a big over 8.5 bet on milwaukee and I cant cancel and its an accident
do I do a big hedge out?

Marcum is under machine on the road, especially as a fav. Depends on what Hochevar you are going to get. The guy can be downright filthy or fukkin aweful.

[usa25]

Can the brewers hitters get it done??

[TheBayouBengal]

Looks like a very solid play. I think Marcum beats Hochevar most any day.

[TheBayouBengal]

Going to take the Brew crew for the 1st 5 too.

[stevenash]

most on here don't think line moves matter though. let's see, marcum better pitcher than hochevar, milwacky better offense than kc, kc hasn't swept milwacky since birth of jesus, majority of the public on milwacky, but still the line moves 25 points towards kc. hmmmmm...

My motto has always been "you like the side, you bet the side"
But yeah, the line movement makes you think, but I still like my side, and I am confident of my wager, if it goes south, so be it.

[stevenash]

Aoki LF
Morgan RF
Braun DH
Ramirez 3B
Hart 1B
Kottaras C
Weeks 2B
Gomez CF
Maysonet SS
(Marcum P)


Gordon LF
Getz 2B
Butler DH
Hosmer 1B
Francoeur RF
Moustakas 3B
Escobar SS
Dyson CF
Quintero C
(Hochevar P)