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morr value taking the heat ml game by game than series price but.....
I feel that if they win game one in a decent fashion....which I think they will....the odds will dramatically swing game two and heat will only be.about +135 +140...and than chalk coming back home...so is this actually a case where taking the series price is better if your a heat backer?
more*
LT....your thoughts on this?
1) If Game 1 is OKC -235, MIA +210, and Miami wins. The Game 2 spread will be even more in favor of OKC. I would predict it as OKC -275, MIA +245.
2) You are the second person I have heard talking about how they can maneuver day to day ML bets better than simply betting the series price. Would you like to make a wager on it? Right now if you put a fake $1,000 on the Heat to win the series at +155, you would earn $1,550 in profit. I would accept any wager you would like to offer that you can't take the same fake $1,000, bet the Heat ML by ML until they win the series, and come up with better profit than the $1,550 mentioned above. The only rule would be that you can't lose more than the original $1,000 since that is what the series bet would take.
If you lose the fake $1,000 and OKC wins the series, neither of us wins the bet because both options would have yielded -$1,000. I'm simply betting that you can't top $1,550 profit strictly through MLs.
Could be a fun experiment.
Last edited by SparJMU; 06-12-12 at 04:38 PM.
can I ask what your reasoning is that you wouldn't make a better profit game by game rather than series?
I've already posted in several threads. OKC will win Game 1, and then I'll bet Miami +210ish to win series.Originally Posted by zoo youk
you haven't read what I said though lol....if the Heat win in convincing fashion tnight.....dont you think that will sway everyone and the ML will plummet for game 2 than all chalk at miami?
No need to consider that because it won't happen. Thunder win handily tonight....And this is coming from someone waiting to bet Heat for series. That aside, if Heat somehow win tonight, Game 2 line will be same as it is now. If Thunder win tonight, Game 2 line will be Thunder -3.5 or -4. It seems your thinking is backwards, Game 2 line will be shaded toward Game 1 LOSER.
And Miami will be around -3 at home middle three games.
the market is always unpredictable with the Heat.
Power ratings have Thunder -0.5 on a neutral court right now. Even if the Heat win by 50 tonight, power ratings rarely move by more than one point after one game. So even if it swings to Heat -0.5, Thunder home court seems to be worth 4.5 points based on tonight's line. So that gets to a base line of OKC -4, and when you add the desperation point for being down 0-1, you are right back to -5.
Zoo, I don't think it's nearly as easy as people claim. This guy "iwantitallsomething" claimed the same thing in the Boston series than typed in circles about all the "what ifs". I would like to watch someone prove to me that they can do it. Let's bet 100 points? What the cash equivalent of that, $5?
Okahoma City will win tonight, which is part of the reason I want to get this started now. Why don't you start with 100 on the Heat ML tonight?
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