1. 06-11-12 10:10 PM #1
    Gee
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    AFL Round 12

    Name: AFL Round 12.jpg Views: 241 Size: 44.9 KB

    Discuss men.

    The obvious play to take now are the Eagles. Its now -25.5 at sportingbet. Still -22.5 at ias/sportsbet.

    6 days break and travel across the country for the Blues, who have never travelled well. Eagles well rested, which they needed, given how banged up they have been.

    I think this has easy win for the Eagles written all over it. They have a style that can smother Carlton and take advantage, particularly with Carlton's defensive frailties.

    Crows/Saints strikes me as an over game too, depending if its set at around 190. Anything around there, I'll take over if the weather is good.

    Not sure about anything else yet...
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  2. 06-11-12 10:15 PM #2
    brettels
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    Jack Reiwoldt probably wont be playing vs GWS.......
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  3. 06-11-12 10:30 PM #3
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gee View Post
    Discuss men.
    how did i know you were a sexist pig. i can just picture this fairy drinking perrier with his pinky sticking out.
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  4. 06-11-12 10:38 PM #4
    brettels
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    Quote Originally Posted by brettels View Post
    Jack Reiwoldt probably wont be playing vs GWS.......
    Meaning it could be a better option for the GWS cover who are also at home, tigers have never played there. Similar feeling to our first game at cazalys last year where gold coast were experienced at that ground and beat us.

    Still I'd wait for team announcements because that might not be a change or it might not be the only change. Hopefully the line drags out further closer to game time.
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  5. 06-11-12 10:47 PM #5
    prior22usaf
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    Fellas, new to this sport. Was hoping you could help me out... Is there a book other than 5dimes in the USA that offers AFL? Ive got 5dimes that does but they put the lines up late in the week and don't offer totals....
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  6. 06-11-12 11:04 PM #6
    Gee
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    I have my first troll. It is just childish. I started this thread to get away from the shit in the last one and here we go again. Guy can't even make his own plays and trolls winners. What's next? The janitor having a go at the CEO for being a bad businessman?

    Brett: I'm sticking away from these huge spreads for a while. Too many variables. Jack needs the rest though IMO, rather than a hit out.

    prior: not that I know of. Most non-Aus books won't put up lines until teams are announced on Thursday night (our time, so Thurs morning ET). I don't like your chances of finding something. Maybe ask 5dimes to put up totals.
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  7. 06-11-12 11:13 PM #7
    brettels
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gee View Post
    I have my first troll. It is just childish. I started this thread to get away from the shit in the last one and here we go again. Guy can't even make his own plays and trolls winners. What's next? The janitor having a go at the CEO for being a bad businessman?

    Brett: I'm sticking away from these huge spreads for a while. Too many variables. Jack needs the rest though IMO, rather than a hit out.
    Jack has a ligament strain in the ankle, 90% sure to be rested. As for the big lines GWS have covered most, true?? 58 is a low line for a GWS game though. If it was the natural 70's + line i would expect them to cover easy. The power of home ground advantage in AFL will show in this match.

    Carlton could cover, they are hungry and west coast isn't exactly 100%......Adelaide should cover the saints at home, 3 goals isn't much to ask.
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  8. 06-11-12 11:14 PM #8
    raydog
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    hey ghenghis...do you mind not starting this stupid shit in the afl threads? if you want to act like fukking child and stalk him, maybe just leave the real threads alone? am i asking too much? i seriously dont want to read the kiddie whoreshit when trying to discuss the weeks plays...


    Adelaide and West Coast look like solid 1-39 plays to me right now
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  9. 06-11-12 11:18 PM #9
    Coopertrooper
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    Like WCE -22.5 as well, also jumped on at IAS. Hoping their promotion will be on that line this week too, they are usualy only $50 free bets but they are pretty good for those who play in units of $50 (like me).

    prior, I don't use them but pinnacle are meant to have good AFL lines, and I think they are a US bookie? Not certain though, I'm in AUS so don't use US books.
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  10. 06-11-12 11:40 PM #10
    brettels
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    Any of you aussies see you can bet on the melbourne metro trains to be running on time or not, funny stuff.
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  11. 06-11-12 11:50 PM #11
    Gee
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    Quick Brettels. Go put a 50c piece on the line just as the train leaves Richmond for Hawthorn at 4:25PM.

    I will pound the late line.
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  12. 06-12-12 12:41 AM #12
    brettels
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    haha....it was only this morning i think, i follow bookies as well as all footy clubs on twitter. Good to see where the money is going. Like all of us, some win some lose but geez some people bet dumb with big amounts.
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  13. 06-12-12 02:20 AM #13
    brettels
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    About time

    http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsartic...7/default.aspx

    Patton to finally debut.
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  14. 06-12-12 03:15 AM #14
    ACoochy
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    Eagles stood out for me as well Gee....GL

    Adelaide -15.5 also stands out as coming off the bye and will be raring to go imo...
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  15. 06-12-12 04:07 AM #15
    Coopertrooper
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    Anyone else think Brisbane are getting too big of a start there? The +46.5 looks fairly generous.
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  16. 06-12-12 04:18 AM #16
    quarterback
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    Brisbane could get beat by 60 plus
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  17. 06-12-12 04:22 AM #17
    Gee
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coopertrooper View Post
    Anyone else think Brisbane are getting too big of a start there? The +46.5 looks fairly generous.
    And that's the 2.10 line. The -110 (1.91) line is 50.5!!

    Not playing any of these big spreads. Last year I said they were too hard and they have been my undoing this season. 3 shitty teams and it can be hard to stay away.
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  18. 06-12-12 04:44 AM #18
    quarterback
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    Hey Gee where are you from mate.
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  19. 06-12-12 04:45 AM #19
    hawley
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    Will see what the model spits out later in the week.

    Leaning Bulldogs for now.
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  20. 06-12-12 04:47 AM #20
    quarterback
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawley View Post
    Will see what the model spits out later in the week.

    Leaning Bulldogs for now.
    I'm interested to see what this model is all about.
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  21. 06-12-12 04:48 AM #21
    Bbr
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    Adelaide -15.5 stands out for me. Also like the bulldogs. Maybe a weeks rest is what they needed to re-group
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  22. 06-12-12 04:57 AM #22
    quarterback
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    West coast over 15.5 Pts @ $1.48

    Hawthorn Over 39.5 @ $1.55

    Both are pretty good plays at those odds.

    Carlton haven't been the same team since the rested a lot of players against gws plus injuries have taken there toll.

    Hawthorn are a quality team and buddy is a machine up forward 40 points against the Brisbane lions could be done by halftime.
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  23. 06-12-12 06:52 AM #23
    sando
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    Eagles -22.5 looks like good value. They needed the rest and will be hungry after the Brisbane debacle (they've dropped from first to third on the ladder and given up premiership favouritism). Also lets not forget they are playing the team Judd left them for. Carlton will no doubt explode at some point but I don't think the time is yet. They had every chance to win the Geelong game but they just weren't good enough. They cannot cover the loss of Murphy and Carazzo in the midfield, they simply aren't deep enough, plus Judd is currently a shadow of his former self, clearly something isn't right at Carlton. Kerr, Priddis and Scott Selwood should run right through the depleted Carlton midfield and the under is also worth a look in as poor weather is expected in Perth for this clash...

    *Carlton is coming off their third 6 day break

    *West Coast has won their last 2 coming off the bye

    *Carlton won contested possessions and clearances against the Cats yet still lost!

    (Carazzo and Scotland have travelled with the team but both will need to prove their fitness to make the 22)
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  24. 06-12-12 07:03 AM #24
    Lookingtostart
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gee View Post
    Name: AFL Round 12.jpg Views: 241 Size: 44.9 KB
    Crows/Saints strikes me as an over game too, depending if its set at around 190. Anything around there, I'll take over if the weather is good.
    It's not going to rain in Adelaide, might drizzle a little or rain for 5 mins. Not sure about wind, may be a little strong.
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  25. 06-12-12 07:07 AM #25
    quarterback
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lookingtostart View Post
    It's not going to rain in Adelaide, might drizzle a little or rain for 5 mins. Not sure about wind, may be a little strong.
    How far are you from stadium ?
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  26. 06-12-12 07:17 AM #26
    Lookingtostart
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    Quote Originally Posted by quarterback View Post
    How far are you from stadium ?
    Ha, in Adelaide, everything's close. Put it this way, I can see what the weather's like above the Stadium if I just look up in that direction. Doesn't matter, it's not going to rain... well now that I posted this it might!
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  27. 06-12-12 07:19 AM #27
    quarterback
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lookingtostart View Post
    Ha, in Adelaide, everything's close. Put it this way, I can see what the weather's like above the Stadium if I just look up in that direction. Doesn't matter, it's not going to rain... well now that I posted this it might!
    Ok cool. I'm from Sydney I live about 5 minutes from gws stadium in blacktown
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  28. 06-12-12 07:33 AM #28
    Coopertrooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by quarterback View Post
    Brisbane could get beat by 60 plus
    They've been playing better footy this year. The line looks like a bit of a trap to me, but my record for lines this year has been really poor, and this year has thrown up a big spread of results. The deviations from what you would expect have been much larger than usual.

    And yeah, I was thinking about playing that extra points line Gee, but it is tough to know. Might wait and see if there is any movement first. Could be one just to leave alone, but I think most of these games (barring the eagles) are fairly sharp, so hard to know where else to play. Looks like it could be another week for the totals.
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  29. 06-12-12 07:40 AM #29
    quarterback
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coopertrooper View Post
    They've been playing better footy this year. The line looks like a bit of a trap to me, but my record for lines this year has been really poor, and this year has thrown up a big spread of results. The deviations from what you would expect have been much larger than usual.

    And yeah, I was thinking about playing that extra points line Gee, but it is tough to know. Might wait and see if there is any movement first. Could be one just to leave alone, but I think most of these games (barring the eagles) are fairly sharp, so hard to know where else to play. Looks like it could be another week for the totals.
    Maybe 60 was over the top but my point is that they should cover a low spread easy
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  30. 06-12-12 01:09 PM #30
    raydog
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    Quote Originally Posted by quarterback View Post
    I'm interested to see what this model is all about.
    ahaha... so is he... the number crunching team is working around the clock right now!!!

    Hawlaaaaayyy
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  31. 06-12-12 04:39 PM #31
    hawley
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    Ray I had to wait out the early rounds to collect sufficient data to enable to model to accurately produce results.

    I have been data mining the past 72 hours almost non-stop and am very close to generating the first predictions.

    Will post when they come out.
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  32. 06-12-12 06:13 PM #32
    quarterback
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawley View Post
    Ray I had to wait out the early rounds to collect sufficient data to enable to model to accurately produce results.

    I have been data mining the past 72 hours almost non-stop and am very close to generating the first predictions.

    Will post when they come out.
    Where are you from hawley?
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  33. 06-12-12 06:26 PM #33
    Gee
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    Hawley

    Can't wait for the first prediction. "My model agrees with Gee. Lets get it."

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  34. 06-13-12 06:14 PM #34
    msharris1428
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    Hawley - any picks yet? New to Aussie rules betting and any help would be awesome. Thanks for your help!
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  35. 06-13-12 06:15 PM #35
    hawley
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    Quote Originally Posted by msharris1428 View Post
    Hawley - any picks yet? New to Aussie rules betting and any help would be awesome. Thanks for your help!

    Model likes West Coast tonight. Will be playing them for 0.5 units to see how we go
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