1. 06-06-12 11:01 AM #1
    shari91
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    Djokovic vs Federer

    Djokovic: -175, -3 -108

    Federer: +164, +3 +100

    o/u 40.5 -105

    (Pinny lines)

    These two have met 26 times but only 5 on clay. And only 2 of those times were within the past 3 years with Djoko straight setting Fed 2 weeks ago in Rome and Federer winning in 5 last year here at the French.

    As of now, I'm leaning Djokovic although I don't like laying chalk like that. I would love to see Federer win this one but it's extremely hard to go against Novak when he once again as proven how hard it is to actually get the win from him. Guy is a beast who refuses to lay down and die. Federer hasn't played exceptionally well throughout this tournament and I don't believe he can keep up the fight for a 5 setter against Djokovic at this point in his career. For him to win, he'll need to play as close to perfectly as possible and he is just too error-prone for me to be willing to risk my money on that. Even as a dog.

    * For those who may be banking on Fed because he beat Djoko in the same spot last year, just keep in mind that they used Babolat balls last year for the first time. It was a big drama throughout the tournament, with the top players complaining constantly because the balls moved faster, farther and were easier to use for topspin shots. Those balls have now been ditched.

    For the total, the over almost seems too easy which is enough to frighten me off of it. I will be on the over 3.5 sets instead if I decide to go near that at all.

    Hopefully it'll be another epic match!
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  2. 06-06-12 11:04 AM #2
    RGG
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    Joker is on fire now. I'm on him.
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  3. 06-06-12 11:07 AM #3
    jjgold
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    Joker real easy
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  4. 06-06-12 11:33 AM #4
    shari91
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Joker real easy
    I'm starting to think that too. DelPo's knee restricted his movement after the 2nd set and his energy faded. Whereas Djokovic was playing a guy who was serving like a demon for a large chunk of the match and going after everything. Federer's backhand was poor again yesterday and DelPo was punishing him for that in the first 2 sets until the physical side let him down. Novak will be able to sustain it through the entire match.
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  5. 06-06-12 11:41 AM #5
    gaebiskon
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    This will be real exciting can't wait
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  6. 06-06-12 12:21 PM #6
    raydog
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    i have 2 excellent tourney futures here... fed +950 and djo +335 to win...(although i believe they are both dead in the water unless nadal loses his left arm in the next 2 days, but waddayado, couldnt stay away from the tasty prices after the draw)

    at least 1 set here goes 7-6...im playing over 40.5 -105 pretty large... with thoughts of fed mentally knowing the 3rd set yesterday crushed all del potros confidence from winning the 1st 2 sets(yeah yeah, the knee wasnt good for delpo, but he was completely gassed after 2 sets too)...fed sees any weakness at all and he pounces...mental strength allows him to win at least 1 set tomorrow...and nobody but nadal on clay can sweep djok... over 40.5 is golden

    match lines have been all over the place, dunno if you get better than -175ish anywhere again and def dont think you see -165 or lower ... best play here is something live, imo...

    gl boyzzz
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  7. 06-06-12 12:33 PM #7
    MCherry281
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    Line is way too high for Djoker. Yeah, he's fought well but has been hitting so many errors. Federer hasn't played well either though so who knows. If I had to play a side pre-match I'd take Fed +1.5 sets -110, but I'm just going over 40.5. I certainly don't see straight sets and I don't see the guy down 2 sets to 1 going down easily in the 4th. I'd assume 1st and 4th sets should be super tight. If they can just avoid a 2nd or 3rd blowout set then over 40.5 should be good.
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  8. 06-06-12 12:49 PM #8
    jjgold
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    Joker is off 10% from last year

    He is hitting way more errors than last year part of that was he played unreal last year

    Fed gets very tight in the big grand slam matches or even any tourney late rounds against the 2 big boys
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  9. 06-06-12 12:56 PM #9
    Inkwell77
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    Joker is winning this tournament, folks. Don't get it twisted. If he is + money in the finals it is a joke.
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  10. 06-06-12 01:17 PM #10
    Demonata
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    Nadal could win this tournament too.
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  11. 06-06-12 01:30 PM #11
    YorkHunt
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    I would take joker -3 -108 and hedge it with federer +164....If joker wins I think it will be by at least 3 points
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  12. 06-06-12 01:31 PM #12
    Hangoverblack
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    A. Tsonga had 4 match points yesterday.

    B. Seppi had him 2-0.

    I refuse to lay juice against Roger. There is no pressure on Roger. All the pressure to hold the four trophies is on Novak. How is he handling it? See A, B above.

    Books begging you to take Djoker.
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  13. 06-06-12 01:32 PM #13
    SBR Lou
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    Djokokvic won't win a set. Quote this post if you have the marbles once all is said and done.

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  14. 06-06-12 01:50 PM #14
    yisman
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    Djokovic will win a set.
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  15. 06-06-12 01:52 PM #15
    paco
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    Should we go all in Shari?
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  16. 06-06-12 01:54 PM #16
    jjgold
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hangoverblack View Post
    A. Tsonga had 4 match points yesterday.

    B. Seppi had him 2-0.

    I refuse to lay juice against Roger. There is no pressure on Roger. All the pressure to hold the four trophies is on Novak. How is he handling it? See A, B above.

    Books begging you to take Djoker.
    Roger makes his own pressure in these big matches
    Fed is playing well
    It should be close
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  17. 06-06-12 02:11 PM #17
    shari91
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    Quote Originally Posted by paco View Post
    Should we go all in Shari?
    Normally I'd say hell no but I'm tempted to after Lou's post. If anyone can mush a player, he sure as hell can. Jelena Jankovic anyone?
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  18. 06-06-12 02:25 PM #18
    EaglesPhan36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Inkwell77 View Post
    Joker is winning this tournament, folks. Don't get it twisted. If he is + money in the finals it is a joke.
    I think Nadal has something different in mind. I think given the struggles of both this week, the total is pretty difficult to gauge. If it goes four, no guarantee that it goes over 40.5. Have to think on this one, but I tend to agree with Shari that the best bet is the Over 3.5 sets again although it is going to have some pretty retarded juice attached to it - guessing -220 at least.
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  19. 06-06-12 02:26 PM #19
    EaglesPhan36
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Lou View Post
    Djokokvic won't win a set. Quote this post if you have the marbles once all is said and done.

    Isn't it kinda early to be blazin' up at the office?
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  20. 06-06-12 02:31 PM #20
    shari91
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    I think Nadal has something different in mind. I think given the struggles of both this week, the total is pretty difficult to gauge. If it goes four, no guarantee that it goes over 40.5. Have to think on this one, but I tend to agree with Shari that the best bet is the Over 3.5 sets again although it is going to have some pretty retarded juice attached to it - guessing -220 at least.
    Almost spot on: -225 at 365 right now. Same as Murray/Ferrer today so I'm going to take it now because I think it'll move. Or it should anyway.
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  21. 06-06-12 02:36 PM #21
    shari91
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    Oh and for those interested in Ferrer vs Nadal (not even bothering to start a thread for that one) there aren't any Pinny lines up yet but as a guideline 365 has Nadal -1400, Ferrer +800.
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  22. 06-06-12 03:55 PM #22
    Pew Pew
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Lou View Post
    Djokokvic won't win a set. Quote this post if you have the marbles once all is said and done.

    put money where mouth is and let us bet "not federer in 3 sets" @ -400 if you're that confident
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  23. 06-06-12 03:56 PM #23
    shari91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pew Pew View Post
    put money where mouth is and let us bet "not federer in 3 sets" @ -300 if you're that confident
    hell yeah Pew!!!

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  24. 06-06-12 04:01 PM #24
    SBR Lou
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pew Pew View Post

    put money where mouth is and let us bet "not federer in 3 sets" @ -400 if you're that confident
    Don't insult me by asking for a terribly off-market #.

    All I ask is you admit you were dead-wrong when Federer doesn't drop a set. If you're right, I'll do the same. Simple.

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  25. 06-06-12 04:02 PM #25
    jjgold
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    I say Joker 3-1
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  26. 06-06-12 04:55 PM #26
    EmpireMaker
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    Quote Originally Posted by Inkwell77 View Post
    Joker is winning this tournament, folks. Don't get it twisted. If he is + money in the finals it is a joke.
    I don't know what you are smoking but it must be strong.
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  27. 06-06-12 04:57 PM #27
    EmpireMaker
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    what will joker be against Nadal + 280 ?
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  28. 06-06-12 05:03 PM #28
    Pew Pew
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Lou View Post
    Don't insult me by asking for a terribly off-market #.

    All I ask is you admit you were dead-wrong when Federer doesn't drop a set. If you're right, I'll do the same. Simple.

    ok looking forward to your post
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  29. 06-06-12 05:16 PM #29
    yisman
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    Quote Originally Posted by EmpireMaker View Post
    what will joker be against Nadal + 280 ?
    Lower, IMO.
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  30. 06-06-12 05:33 PM #30
    trytrytry
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    this will be 3-1 FED .. count on a FED underdog win here..
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  31. 06-06-12 10:18 PM #31
    motabl50
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    dj wil win.....federer was lucky because del potro was injured
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  32. 06-06-12 10:23 PM #32
    sportfan
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    Sharapova tomorrow shari ?
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  33. 06-06-12 10:44 PM #33
    paco
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    Joker and nadal ml parlay (Hugh) don't let me down Shar bear
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  34. 06-06-12 11:02 PM #34
    Sawyer
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    Djoker -3
    Over 39.5
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  35. 06-06-12 11:17 PM #35
    baskets
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    I'm afraid this is a blatantly obvious result when you think things thru, when think about the past and present ... and the future. When you step back and look long-term.

    I've had trouble with this kind of wager in the past b/c of the emotions.... but it appears absolutely clear to me.
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