[GunShard]

I'm on Federer on statistical, history and matchup reasons.

Joker can prove me wrong if he finally wins the French open.

[Goat Milk]

Roger makes his own pressure in these big matches
Fed is playing well
It should be close

I took Fed future and taking Fed here. I took Fed last year in the french and he woulda won the whole thing if he didn't choke to Nadal. Federer can beat Djokovic for sure--not with the way he's been playing but I expect another level from Fed tmrw. If Federer serves lights out he is still the 2nd best player on clay after Nadal. I don't know what the chances of him serving 70%ish his first serve, but if he does, Djokovic will lose tight sets because Fed still has one of the best serves in the game. And his game is just suited better for clay now. The courts give him more time to catch up to balls and he has a whole bag of tricks and dropshots that just are more effective on clay

[plankton43]

I like Federer over Djokovic tomorrow, hoping that Nadal loses to one of them.

[yisman]

I took Fed future and taking Fed here. I took Fed last year in the french and he woulda won the whole thing if he didn't choke to Nadal.

Well, that goes without saying, because they played in the final.

[Tchocky]

I think Roger has some value. May just take the over.

[tevari]

Going to sit this one out, ladies & gents.

[jjgold]

Should be a good one and good discussion

[SBR Lou]

If you sharp handicappers fancy Djokovic so much, go bet the special line. Thanks in advance.

[shari91]

If you sharp handicappers fancy Djokovic so much, go bet the special line. Thanks in advance.

silly man

[jjgold]

When does this start???

[shari91]

When does this start???

Nadal/Ferrer are up first but it's raining so I'd be surprised if they even played today.

[jjgold]

Good hope rained out

I am not home and want to watch

Tomorrow will be unreal sports day if played along with hottest tennis player alive Sharapova in and out of the bedroom

[Nick Papageorgio]

Sitting out folks, no miracles today. Errani was it yesterday.

[Sawyer]

Nice to see you like Djokovic too, Shari,

I noticed everybody talks about Fed crushed Del Potro 3-2 and Djokovic struggled versus Seppi & Tsonga.

Are you crazy? Did you watched Del Potro vs Federer match?

Fedex lost 2-0 versus Del Potro!
He beat Injuried-Del Potro 3-0.

Last game was very very misleading. It was easy for Federror to defeat injuried-Del Potro but versus a healthy Del Potro he lost 2 sets.

I don't think Djokovic struggled versus Seppi & Tsonga. He didn't played with %100, that's all..And he's a great actor, lol.

Djokovic to win 3-1 or 3-2 for me. GL!

[Nick Papageorgio]

Errani def worth a small shot by the looks of it, they are hammering pova.

[acl123]

Fed is the play folks.

[yisman]

Pinnacle was at -202 seven hours ago. Now they're at -170.

[shari91]

Pinnacle was at -202 seven hours ago. Now they're at -170.

Following Pinny lines only work in tennis a little over 50% of the time for the men. Don't worry yet

[yisman]

yeah but if only sbr didn't close its lines so early I could've avoided betting so big on Djokovic. The sbr special line wound up being worse than the market.

Pretty big line move.

[shari91]

Ok I took the bait and laid the chalk on Djokovic. I very rarely do crap like this so I fully expect to learn my lesson yet again. Beware Djoko backers. If all else fails my over 3.5 sets bet will cover Djokovic. If however Fed wins in 3 I'm hooped royally

[yisman]

heritage and bovada don't have the 3.5 sets bet

heritage has each player +2.5 sets, but at bad prices

5 dimes has -260

[`q1q1q1]

Ok I took the bait and laid the chalk on Djokovic. I very rarely do crap like this so I fully expect to learn my lesson yet again. Beware Djoko backers. If all else fails my over 3.5 sets bet will cover Djokovic. If however Fed wins in 3 I'm hooped royally

Djokovic is the only play here to be honest. He has improved his quality throughout the tourney and Federer hasn't looked great. Goffin was giving him problems, Del Potro had him. Federer at times looks quite poor and inconsistent and Novak will make him work and I think Federer is regressing.

your point about the change in balls is huge because you could tell in last year's match along with the wind, that affected Djokovic more

[MoYaL]

Ok I took the bait and laid the chalk on Djokovic. I very rarely do crap like this so I fully expect to learn my lesson yet again. Beware Djoko backers. If all else fails my over 3.5 sets bet will cover Djokovic. If however Fed wins in 3 I'm hooped royally

If however Joker wins in 3 , I'm burrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrried

[shari91]

heritage and bovada don't have the 3.5 sets bet

heritage has each player +2.5 sets, but at bad prices

5 dimes has -260

Ah that sucks. That prop has seriously made me some great cash. I feel much safer taking that than overs now because I can often peg when players are likely to drop one or two but I can't get screwed by lopsided sets like I can with the total.

[MatI]

Ok I took the bait and laid the chalk on Djokovic. I very rarely do crap like this so I fully expect to learn my lesson yet again. Beware Djoko backers. If all else fails my over 3.5 sets bet will cover Djokovic. If however Fed wins in 3 I'm hooped royally

I have the Over 3.5 in the last leg of a parlay. Don't jinx me here Shari!

[yisman]

Eurosport: "Djokovic vs. Nadal in the finals: What happens?"



jumping the gun a little, aren't we?

[shari91]

Yisman I got it at -225 two days ago so the -260 isn't that bad. Still a risk obviously though.

[shari91]

Djokovic is the only play here to be honest. He has improved his quality throughout the tourney and Federer hasn't looked great. Goffin was giving him problems, Del Potro had him. Federer at times looks quite poor and inconsistent and Novak will make him work and I think Federer is regressing.

your point about the change in balls is huge because you could tell in last year's match along with the wind, that affected Djokovic more

Yeah I think if someone didn't watch that DelPo match they're at a big disadvantage as far as picking a winner here goes. Of course Federer can win this and he might've even been able to come back even if DelPo wasn't hurt, but I don't have that confidence in him any more. He's burned me too many times in big matches in the past year and a half or so and I haven't seen an improvement at all. Even though Novak isn't walking on water any more like he was all of last year still is the better player today. More fight, less errors, stronger shots, better shot selection. I still think Tsonga could've taken Federer out if they had met. And the change of balls really was a massive deal last year which again I think will lead people astray if they're basing this match on last year's result.

Despite my bets a part of me still hopes Fed wins because I'd love to see him and Nadal in the Final but I've bet on him too many times with my heart when my head was saying no. This time I'm betting based on what I've seen and know.

[yisman]

http://www.thefirstrow.eu/watch/1259...atrier%29.html

itv, whatever that is, sure advertises a lot of gambling. First you have a betfair ad (advertising that it has better odds on 14/16 teams for euro 12 than bet365, 15/16 than william hill, 15/16 than lad brokes, which is ridiculous. Betfair is an EXCHANGE. Of course it has better odds), followed by a bet365 ad!

[yisman]

Yisman I got it at -225 two days ago so the -260 isn't that bad. Still a risk obviously though.

I didn't realize where to check on 5 Dimes so while I wanted to see if I could get the -225, I just assumed I couldn't bet it.

5 Dimes probably posted it later anyway (listed as a 'prop' and they don't put up the props section for some time), so I doubt -225 was available there.

[yisman]

players leaving the court. No telling when we start.

[baskets]

clear skies for Rafa match... and now this will be fukking Hurrican Katrina

[shari91]

unreal rain again

[tevari]

I said I was staying away but I made this play cause I'm a total action junkie.

[Hangoverblack]

Djokovic is too easy at these odds.

I never feel comfortable with djokovic under -200. He just ran through Federer in Rome,
And Fed has looked very underwhelming so far, yet here we are, with the line moving toward fed in the all important closing moments.

A lot we don't know, and cannot handicap.