Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

We have a bone e fide rip you a new one rally today. No doubt the catalyst is going to be credited to the phony Russia invasion story. Gold will subside again which is why I secretly was buying DUST starting from a week ago. I still own all the gold and gold miners for the forever term, but from time to time you just know a spike is a spike so you buy dust or even options. Options have high premiums so I try to avoid them unless I'm sure of big move coming.

Which brings me back to the QQQ and IWM, it is a sell the rip story here as all these markets are doing is climbing up the break down candle from Friday. Its a sell the rip call again until the prices can get above the breakdown candles and price levels listed here.

QQQ $356.50, $358 and the line in the sand $365.50.
IWM $208 (remember that one), $211.50, $214.50, and the line in the sand here is way up there at $220.
SPY $450, $453, $458, and there are others on the way up to $472 but I doubt we would need those numbers before it all comes back down.

We are in the volatile market days as the VIX made a big move up on Friday. That predicted a market move in the overall market back up either on Monday or Tuesday as the VIX subsides. This could be it as in a gap and crap because the VIX is sitting right on the 20DMA (25.80) as I type so it can bounce back up and that would be it for the overall market moving higher. Or the VIX can continue down towards the 50DMA (22.10) as I think it will before turning back up.

[chase1]

ABNB is soaring. Got out near the close with another +10 added today. It was time to close it out. I had bought 5 contracts of the JULY calls for 78.25 and sold them for 99.50 for a gain of +21.25 in stock appreciation or 27%. I wanted to get the gains over 10k when I went into the trade, I didn't think it would take only a week. Plus sold 5 more puts at the 150 strike for .90 that will expire Friday since it's up even more in after hours. Hope it pulls back some after ripping for a week. I continue to see good things ahead. Their earnings were outstanding.

Still holding the ZS AUG call. Up another 11+ today. It's just about time to exit this one too, probably tomorrow. My goal was to hold it for months but it's already brough in more than I expected.

Sold puts on UPST and RBLX. One way up and one down a little. They will both expire Friday and will keep the premium. Put buyers lose.

[Slurry Pumper]

So the markets are kind of in no mans land here. It can continue up or crash back down. I'm in the crash back down camp before April but it may have a push here for a little while going into the weekend and coming out of the holiday closing on Monday. What's the holiday? I have no F'ing idea.

Anyway, the IWM is really making a push back up toward the original buying price of 208 for my puts, and if this push continues, I have a date with another buy of those very same puts when the $212 level comes in, and finally I think I might add another buy spot on a larger push up but as of now I can't identify that just yet. I'll pay the premium increase and accept the volatility friend to come through for me.

Yesterday, the PPI came in and the markets could give a shit less. Almost shocking actually how fixated on another phony Russia story is able to move things around. Eventually things will come back to reality and things will hit. Its all part of the catalyst cycle. When they need a positive story they can make one out of anything and use that to move the tape whichever way it is needed.

[Headsterx]

President’s Day on Monday

[homie1975]

President’s Day on Monday

yes, but still two more days to watch until then. Thurs and Fri should be interesting.

[Slurry Pumper]

Thursday was a melt down situation. Today I think we get a little bounce in the morning then probably a sell off into the close as who wants to be holding anything going into the weekend where the phony Russia story can take any turn. I think the real story that would have an effect on the market would be the moves being made in Oh Canada. They are making some dicktator type moves and the banking crack down will have more to do with the stock market than a couple thousand people invading a country most of us can't pinpoint on a map.

Its still the sell the rip story here for the foreseeable future but I would tread lightly as we have option expiration going on and things can move around today so getting whipsawed around is more likely than not.

[Slurry Pumper]

It could be a ride today in the markets.

[d2bets]

Not sure I can direct you to one definitive source of information, but I can tell you my bull thesis from my own research and future macro geopolitical concerns

Do you still like Palantir here under $11?

[chase1]

Looks like a tough week ahead as most stocks are testing the lows we hit a few weeks ago. I was certain we would but thought it might be in March. Thank god I got out of the calls I bought before the turn but not as confident to get back in as I was before. Too much craziness going on although I do think we probably bounce Tuesday or mid-week but doubtful we can build on any gains. In the meantime, I'm going to stay neutral for now until I see any other opportunities.

Fun fact: I heard the other day that Warren Buffet made 95% of his wealth after he turned 65. I found this quite interesting. 99.7% was made after age 52.

https://miro.medium.com/max/1274/1*0qsCgYYtE0ZVkqqFiG9IMA.png

[jjgold]

When do you think a good time to come in?

[Madison]

The Great Devaluation

Author Adam Baratta.

Only a 1/3 in but a very interesting and insightful read.

USA Today and Wall Street Journal best seller.

[Slurry Pumper]

When do you think a good time to come in?

Oddly enough JJ, I'm targeting right after the FED meeting in March as the time to start buying the dip. I think the next few weeks are going to be a rough ride for the long players, buy and holders, buy the dippers, and anyone trying to get a stock for a cheap price. Sure there may be a little rise in the beginning of the week, but I see that as another opportunity to sell that rip and get short.

[chase1]

I agree with Slurry that a good time to start buying will be around the Fed meeting or maybe right before it. If it continues to go down after that I would continue accumulating and dollar cost averaging. Nobody can time the market just right it's a hard call to make. To play it safer, you might consider selling some puts on your favorite stocks you wouldn't mind owning. Premiums are high right now and will probably continue to be around that time.

When it gets so bad that everyone throws their hands up and you see panic selling, that will be the time to step in. I think we are getting close to that point. The sentiment around the market is starting to remind me of March 2020 when stocks sold off and there were no buyers. We had steeper, fast 1000-2000 point drops then but this time it has been a longer consistent decline for months. I'm just recalling our last correction. The market has been suffering from a death by a thousand paper cuts. It will go higher eventually... the FOMO crowd will jump in and hedge funds will start investing in growth once again. It's going to be harder under this current administration though we might have to grind it out for a while.

[nyplayer33]

Most options expire worthless

[d2bets]

I agree with Slurry that a good time to start buying will be around the Fed meeting or maybe right before it. If it continues to go down after that I would continue accumulating and dollar cost averaging. Nobody can time the market just right it's a hard call to make. To play it safer, you might consider selling some puts on your favorite stocks you wouldn't mind owning. Premiums are high right now and will probably continue to be around that time.

When it gets so bad that everyone throws their hands up and you see panic selling, that will be the time to step in. I think we are getting close to that point. The sentiment around the market is starting to remind me of March 2020 when stocks sold off and there were no buyers. We had steeper, fast 1000-2000 point drops then but this time it has been a longer consistent decline for months. I'm just recalling our last correction. The market has been suffering from a death by a thousand paper cuts. It will go higher eventually... the FOMO crowd will jump in and hedge funds will start investing in growth once again. It's going to be harder under this current administration though we might have to grind it out for a while.

Funny to think that the s&p is still now nearly 100% higher than the March 2020 lows. Also about 33% higher than the pre-pandemic highs. At this point it's only fallen less than 10% from ath. When the fed acted in 2018, the market fell almost 20% before they reversed course.

[hehfest]

[homie1975]

^ and that's why i own Blackrock stock.

[chico2663]

When do you think a good time to come in?

April

[False Start]

Why do certain posters only talk about the S and P? Here in NYC area, the focus is on the Dow Jones...that's why it's always announced first on radio reports. And don't forget about Nasdaq.
Buy into these three exchanges and hold until retirement. It's time in the market, not trying to time the market.

[d2bets]

Why do certain posters only talk about the S and P? Here in NYC area, the focus is on the Dow Jones...that's why it's always announced first on radio reports. And don't forget about Nasdaq.
Buy into these three exchanges and hold until retirement. It's time in the market, not trying to time the market.

Among those 3 indices, the S&P 500 is certainly the most relevant. The Dow is 30 stocks. That certainly doesn't represent the market. The NASDAQ is tech stocks primarily. It's a tech stock index. S&P500 is the largest 500 overall, which does include the Dow and a lot of tech too. Of course none of those captures the mid and small cap stocks.

Radio reports? What's a radio?

[homie1975]

Among those 3 indices, the S&P 500 is certainly the most relevant. The Dow is 30 stocks. That certainly doesn't represent the market. The NASDAQ is tech stocks primarily. It's a tech stock index. S&P500 is the largest 500 overall, which does include the Dow and a lot of tech too. Of course none of those captures the mid and small cap stocks.

Radio reports? What's a radio?

Phawken D2er, every time i see you in this thread, i just know my stock portfolio is in the tank !!

JK man LOL

I agree that the S&P 500 is the bedrock, the top 500 public companies listed.

However, the NAZZY with all of the tech high flyers is definitely the future and for high growth and all things tech, this is the index of the future.

trading at a big discount that will get a little bigger in the coming days and weeks but the BTFD crowd is waiting with baited breath to pounce again.

[chase1]

Most options expire worthless

Yep most options do which is why I am a seller of them almost all of the time. Premiums collected by the buyers of call or put options provides a steady flow of income.

Not that call buying shouldn't be done. Better to go out a few months and buy an option at the money with a delta at +.90 or above if you're going to do it. That way you will get close to the same movement as if you owned the stock.

I would never advise anyone to buy out of the money calls or puts unless you have a real good feeling. The payoff is great if your right but that's where that 90% expire worthless comes in because most of the time you will lose whatever you paid for the option.

[chase1]

Funny to think that the s&p is still now nearly 100% higher than the March 2020 lows. Also about 33% higher than the pre-pandemic highs. At this point it's only fallen less than 10% from ath. When the fed acted in 2018, the market fell almost 20% before they reversed course.

Great point it puts things in perspective. It was hard to believe it kept climbing and climbing past the pre-pandemic highs. The market had to correct it was way too hot. The S%P like you said is still 30% higher but a lot of stocks, especially tech, are touching those pre-pandemic tops as I'm sure you're aware.

I do remember 2018 with the Fed. I think that is the only negative year in the market over the last 12.

[jjgold]

goof stuff men

[Slurry Pumper]

Mixed day today with some indices going up slightly like QQQ and dow transports while the others went down. Just like I told you earlier I sold 2 more of those IWM puts this morning right outta the gate for $10.60 and I made a mistake in the last post by saying they expired on Mar 22,2022, its actually Mar 21,2020, but who cares I'll be long outta these by then probably.

Anyway so the books look like this:

I bought 10 of these things at $5.65 x 10 x 100 = $5650.
I sold 2 of them Friday as shown above for $7.93 X 2 X 100 = $1586.
I sold 2 more of them today as shown above for $10.60 X 2 X 100 = $2120.

So all told I have $5650 - $1586 - $2120 = $1944 of my money still in this and another $3706 returned so that I can invest in something else.

Today's close $11.28. So I have the potential of $11.28 x 6 x 100 = $6768 as a theoretical liquidation price currently.

OK this IWM March 21,2020 Strike Price PUTs that I have march on. I'm selling another 1 of the 6 I have left here for the price of $13.34 at 1:22.45. The books are below as to how this trade has been going so far.

Bought 10 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $5.65 * 100 * 10 = $5650 (2/10/22)
Sold 2 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $7.93 * 100 * 2 = $1586 (2/11/22)
Sold 2 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $10.60 * 100 * 2 = $2120 (2/11/22)
Sold 1 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination for $13.34 * 100 * 1 = $1334 (2/22/22)

In play is 5 IWM $208 Strike March 21 termination current price $13.34.

So far I put in $5650 and extracted $5040 so I have a total of $610 left of my initial investment with almost an entire month to sit and wait. It would be very difficult at this point not to make a profit on this trade.

[False Start]

The S and P gets discussed the least on Wall Street. I should know. I worked on the floor for 21 years. Now I'm an investment broker.

[False Start]

Oh, and our team projects the following by the end of 1st half fiscal of this year: Dow 28,000-29,000.
Nasdaq 11,000-11,500.
And S and P 3,500-3,700.
Buy low on QQQ.

[homie1975]

Oh, and our team projects the following by the end of 1st half fiscal of this year: Dow 28,000-29,000.
Nasdaq 11,000-11,500.
And S and P 3,500-3,700.
Buy low on QQQ.

wow 11,000 on the Nazzy would be ~31% down from the high last NOV of 16,057.

hard to see that happening.

too many FOMO'ers have CASH.

[guitarjosh]

wow 11,000 on the Nazzy would be ~31% down from the high last NOV of 16,057.

hard to see that happening.

too many FOMO'ers have CASH.

Not enough to offset the big boys if they sell into strength.

[RangeFinder]

I saw something last night that suggested selling on a military build up, and buy on the invasion. Every conflict, if you were to do just that, you made something like 20% in the first 5 month's after the invasion.

[Slurry Pumper]

Oh, and our team projects the following by the end of 1st half fiscal of this year: Dow 28,000-29,000.
Nasdaq 11,000-11,500.
And S and P 3,500-3,700.
Buy low on QQQ.

Or you can also sell short the QQQs for the time being. Then later buy low as well.
I don't know anyone who plays the DOW as an index, but it is there so I guess some people must do it. I trade mostly the S&P because it is the one index that pretty much shows you a broad indication of the market. Even before I buy an individual stock, I look to see where the S&P is likely to go. That doesn't mean that I will not make a trade but it is an awareness of what to expect.

[k13]

wow 11,000 on the Nazzy would be ~31% down from the high last NOV of 16,057.

hard to see that happening.

too many FOMO'ers have CASH.

11 000 is nothing.
8000 would not be shocking.

Should really be 3000 with normal interest rates.

Most tech stocks are already down 50% +, a few big companies holding up the index from falling even more.

[Madison]

Synthetic gene manipulation

Ginko Bioworks (DNA). Just read an amazing email by Luke Lango "Innovation Investors".

Truly futuristic stuff. I'd send the amazing article but it was an email.

Worth a look in my opinion as a long term play.

[homie1975]

11 000 is nothing.
8000 would not be shocking.

Should really be 3000 with normal interest rates.

Most tech stocks are already down 50% +, a few big companies holding up the index from falling even more.

that's 2000 dotcom bubble burst stuff right there.

i don't see it. the valuations are not as "off" as they were 22 years ago.

i would be stunned if it even touched 12,500 let alone 11,999 (black swan or cataclysmic event notwithstanding)

[d2bets]

that's 2000 dotcom bubble burst stuff right there.

i don't see it. the valuations are not as "off" as they were 22 years ago.

i would be stunned if it even touched 12,500 let alone 11,999 (black swan or cataclysmic event notwithstanding)

In 2000, the Nazzy fell 77% from it's highs. This year, Nazzy almost touched 16k at peak. 8k would only be 50% drop. 77% would require 3,680. Now that would indeed be shocking.

12,500 would not be stunning at all.