Let’s get past February OPEX and then I think it’s giddy up time...wouldn’t be going ballz deep here, maybe another 2-3% more blood to shed vs 30-40% upside down in the end it’s better to get long vs short here
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Well today we were a little range bound with the SPY bouncing around from 446 and 450. Not much happened today in term of market direction and several index charts I look at are diverging. We'll see but I still think the market move up before taking a big steaming pile of a dump going into the fed rate hike in March. We will see. In the meantime, I'm light this week with the diverging markets all over the place with chop.Comment -
Usually, I am a seller of puts or calls depending on the trend. I went out of my zone today and bought a couple of out of the money calls on a few of these beaten down tech stocks that are still solid and have great growth potential. Obviously rising rates on the horizon has caused traders and companies to adjust this potential and rightly so but valuations are seemingly becoming more reasonable after being chopped 50-70%.
Sure the market could fall more from here I'm not calling a bottom by any means. My exact timing is never right which is why I am giving a few of these trades time to breathe. Looking further out I see us recovering and being higher than where we are right now though. I mainly focused on July and August calls (6 months) with the delta in a range of .92-95 thus spending about half as much as buying the stock outright and getting nearly the same movement.
The risk/reward I feel is a good opportune time to take on these positions, but I could be dead wrong. Will see how it pans out. In the meantime, I'll be selling covered calls on them while I wait.Comment -
GL CHASER !! I agree with you on the time horizon you have indicated because it appears to give ample time for the current climate to settle piece by piece between now and July/Aug. the only concern i have is the geopolitical pressure events as those tend to take much longer to settle and right now we have a simmering that is increasing to a boil.Comment -
Thanks Homie your definitely right about the geopolitical issues it is a concern and will most likely continue to be for a while. Hopefully we can climb the "wall of worry" like I have seen happen many times in the past but if things do boil over, I'll admit defeat and take a loss. I might exit early if we get a couple good days like today, but I would like to give it some time and get a nice run especially in two I bought - Airbnb (ABNB) and Zschaler (ZS).
I really like these. We all know Airbnb and Zschaler is a cybersecurity stock that is growing fast with a lot of growth ahead as well. The other two were Upstart (UPST) and Asana (ASAN). Asana had a nice 12% pop today I am almost tempted to take the profits and close it out. Don't want to become a hog and get slaughtered but don't want to give up potential gains either which I think could be a lot more to go too.Comment -
It looks like the SPY will be able to shake off that pesky $450 level and remain in the bullish side of the tape led by the leading indicators IWM and the $DJT. The divergences have worked there way out and now only the QQQ is lagging slightly. I think we get a nice bull run here as I have been saying for the last week or so. Remember however it is still a sell the rip scene so there is always a chance of this thing falling apart. I don't think that happens today however. Tomorrow is another story and if things go especially well today, that may set up a catalyst situation for tomorrow. I'll be back after the close when I get a better handle on things, but if you are long enjoy the ride today. It looks like a suck them in kind of day if I had to give it a name.Comment -
don't forget to go into the Bitcoin thread where i just posted some info on a crypto spec.
will leave it there soas not to crowd are stock thread with crypto.
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Just a trendline breakout target, let's see if this one plays out....Last one(yellow arrows) played very nicely....Comment -
What a day. Closed out ASAN and UPST about 10 minutes to close. Hard to pass up 20%+ gains in 2 days. I'll get back into them if we get any pullback or if they consolidate. I still want to hold onto ABNB and ZS I'm into these for more of the long term...unless it keeps ripping but maybe we settle out here after 3 big days but who the hell knows for sure.
Still been holding onto Salesforce and Disney. Nice pop after hours in Disney up about +18 for the day. I got a covered @160 expiring Friday so it might get called away. I hope it can be taken off my hands I've had it since last September.Comment -
CHASEr well done !!Comment -
It certainly looks like the market is poised for a little bit of a rocket ride here. Yesterday the SPY, IWM, QQQ, SMH all moved up to or almost to anyway resistance levels. This morning we get the CPI data and if you look at the expectations of 0.5 month to month and 7.3 yearly, those are giant crappy numbers to hit. It wont be hard to make these phony numbers beat the estimate and ignite the rocket ride today. Even if we get a 0.3 month over month and a 4.8 yearly, those are really crappy numbers but a big beat of expectations so its off to the races.
I'm still looking to sell the rip however so after the fuel is expired, I'll be buying the puts.
This is a portion of a post I made on 1/24/22 (#11099)
This trade is still on and it looks like it is setting up pretty nicely.
So we had our short term pivot now what?
So the trade I'm willing to hit sets up like this: Buy IWM PUTS (33%) at $208 strike with about 4 weeks to close, and (66%) at $212 strike with the same 4 week close. So long as the IWM price doesn't creep up to the price. If it goes up and hangs out just under the price target, that is a clue that the price is gaining momentum to move higher and the trade is off the table.
This is a slightly more than a year for the IWM chart with daily candles. Look at that $208 level, that spot has been resistance and support for quite a while now. Just above it there is another level of support / resistance at $212. This is an obvious spot that if reached I will be buying some PUTS. If it happens this week, I'll get the March 31 termination date.Comment -
Great info, Slurry. GL Mate.Comment -
Stocks will get slaughtered when these cowards can no longer hold off on rates with these higher than expected reports.Comment -
Worse than expected numbers this morning when the expected numbers are really bad. Ouch, we are headed for some record breaking hardship in the U.S.A. That IWM trade remains on hold and it may be awhile before we see that level again. We'll see if the markets can shake off the negative news. Sentiment was looking up this morning for a while.Comment -
Anyone that trades daily is a dead loser
Totally random
Laugh at them
Long term a different storyComment -
Whispers Of An Emergency Fed Rate Hike As Soon As Tomorrow
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Day traders almost all go broke. Don't think I have seen anyone in here trading that way. Swing trading, utilizing options is very successful.
Long term works if those that hold can ride through the ups and downs. Not my game though except maybe a couple but even then, just rent out your stock with covered calls for income to bring down that cost basis.Comment -
So it was a tough tape today to decipher and I originally thought that my IWM trade wasn't going to happen, but sure as shyt the buy the dip crowd gave the finger to the worst inflation in 40 years and bought up IWM and spiked that biatch to @209.05. You know I jumped on board at $208 like I laid it all out for you several weeks ago and reminded you today. The PUTS that expire March 22 with a 208 Strike cost $5.65. When I bought them at 10:37.32. What did it close at? How about $8.00. That's $2.38 per contract or 42.1%. Fully kicked ass.
If you took the trade, I'm telling you to take some profits tomorrow at the open. The IWM moved around allot today filled the giant gap from a couple of days ago but finished above the gap and inside the breakup candle from 2 days ago. This believe it or not is bullish don't give away 40% tomorrow when it moves back up.
That brings me to this trade, I'm gonna do the same trade again except I'll wait until IWM gets to $212 this time.
The SPY has a bull flag pattern going on and it will look that way until it gets below $444.
I actually expect a rip you a new one rescue operation tomorrow and maybe Monday. This time $457 wont be as resistive as it has been the last 2 times up there and I think it has a chance to come close to $471 if the hype gets going enough.Comment -
Sell high, buy low. This is a dick market now. It is playing with your head. Day trade the S&P 500. When it moves 90 points go the other way and take the profit. Go for the SDS on the downside and whatever index u follow for the upside. Good luck but right now keep your eye on the index. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. Keep your eye on the market, take profits, and cut losses. Look for a breakout above 4500 or stay neutral or short for now. Don't let this market play mind games for you now.Comment -
Closed Board Meeting on February 14, 2022
Government in the Sunshine Meeting Notice
Advanced Notice of a Meeting under Expedited Procedures
It is anticipated that the closed meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at 11:30 a.m. on Monday, February 14, 2022, will be held under expedited procedures, as set forth in section 261b.7 of the Board's Rules Regarding Public Observation of Meetings, at the Board's offices at 20th Street and C Streets, N.W., Washington, D.C.. The following items of official Board business are tentatively scheduled to be considered at that meeting.
Meeting Date: Monday, February 14, 2022.
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True inflation is close to 20%.
These morons would still be "talking" about raising rates while inflation hits 50%.Comment -
Hey it happens, sometimes even I get the forecast for the day wrong. Today was a melt down day, and I thought we would get a melt up day. Either way, it is a good thing to take profit when you get something that has made a substantial move. The snipet above represents 20% of my initial 33% buy in of IWM puts, 208 strike that expire on Mar 22,2022.
So to keep the books on this trade. I bought 10 of these things at $5.65 x 10 x 100 = $5650.
I sold 2 of them today as shown above for $7.93 X 2 X 100 = $1586.
So all told I have $5650 - $1586 = $4064 of my money still in this and another $1586 I can invest in something else.
Today's close $11.98. So I have the potential of $11.98 x 8 x 100 = $9584 as a theoretical liquidation price currently. That's almost double people in 2 days. Kind of sucks that I limit myself to 33% position entry but I gotta follow the rules I put there for myself.
I read the tape wrong today and we may be at the start of that next big flush I think is coming. I bought some QQQ, and SPY puts today that are already in the money by like $5. This time they are 50% position puts as I don't have a second spot to buy these at.
The market can go to shit if those rumors of the FED coming over the top here in the near future with a emergency rate hike before the March announcement of the rate hike. I don't think it will happen but you never know.
On Monday, unless we have a giant gap open of like 600 points on the dow and a likewise jump in other index markets I follow, I'm going to take the same 20% profit from the others and let the rest ride for a while.Last edited by Slurry Pumper; 02-11-22, 06:45 PM.Comment -
So looking at everything, I am staying defensive in Energy, particularly Oil and Uranium...Commodities should just continue to climb...soft commodities like corn, potatoes could also really start to run...I did open up a few swing trades on some tech names like Zoom, GLBE and PLTR into their upcoming earnings.
I am still in the camp of whatever happens with Russia/China is likely to go hard into cyber warfare...PLTR BBAI are some of the top cyber defense stonks...LMT I am almost certain has developed those flying saucers the Navy just randomly decided to disclose a few years ago...Comment -
Yep, pretty much...the other explanations seem too far fetched and implausible...there are patents already published by navy researchers for gravitational force controlled crafts and fusion generators...there are planes and weapons out there we would be blown away by, pretty sure there are directed energy and electromag pulse weapons which could knock out electronic equipment.Comment -
You gotta watch them Navy people, ever since the village people were welcomed on the aircraft carrier with open arms they have been developing some serious stuff.
Today I'm going to sell a couple more IWM puts off the open or soon after then sit and wait with most of my initial investment back in the account and available for further investment.
It looks like they are going to start the day down in most markets except gold. Remember how I told you all you just keep buying gold and it wont let you down? Well now it seems like when the world is ready to go to shit, the gold markets are going to stand up and represent.
Normally I would think we may have a turn around today, but there is a emergency fed meeting today at 1:30 so I think traders will have the hair trigger waiting for the word of a surprise rate hike coming. For that reason I also suspect the volatility to calm down after the initial rush this morning and going forward. Unless of course that rate hike does come in today sometime. Then things will start to liven up a little bit. I've got Puts in IWM, QQQ, and SPY at this point along with a shyt load of gold and gold mining stocks. Then I have been accumulating "value" stocks that are boring but give a real good dividend.
I'm ready for the world to go to shyt. Not saying I want it to, but it if it does, I'm here to profit off of it.Comment -
What is thoughts if user starts shit. Sold tsla hoping for a drop.Comment -
Mixed day today with some indices going up slightly like QQQ and dow transports while the others went down. Just like I told you earlier I sold 2 more of those IWM puts this morning right outta the gate for $10.60 and I made a mistake in the last post by saying they expired on Mar 22,2022, its actually Mar 21,2020, but who cares I'll be long outta these by then probably.
Anyway so the books look like this:
I bought 10 of these things at $5.65 x 10 x 100 = $5650.
I sold 2 of them Friday as shown above for $7.93 X 2 X 100 = $1586.
I sold 2 more of them today as shown above for $10.60 X 2 X 100 = $2120.
So all told I have $5650 - $1586 - $2120 = $1944 of my money still in this and another $3706 returned so that I can invest in something else.
Today's close $11.28. So I have the potential of $11.28 x 6 x 100 = $6768 as a theoretical liquidation price currently.Comment -
Raked in some nice profits last week. The two left from this set is ABNB and ZS. Got another up day on ABNB so it's been on a good run rising 5/6 (+25%) days since I put it on. I will exit the trade before earnings are announced after the bell tomorrow. Made a mental mistake not looking at the calendar before buying those calls last Monday.
After exiting, I will sell some puts way below the price in case it goes down. Some nice juicy premiums for options expiring Friday. Don't know which strike just yet but eyeing 145's (1.06-1.16) about 25 points away currently. Might go higher or lower depending on what the stock does tomorrow. Worst case scenario, I get the stock at a huge discount if it slices through my bottom strike I take. Don't have a problem with this
The only one I will have left of the 4 set of long dated calls I bought is Zschaler. It's been holding strong up 5/6 days and with it being in the cybersecurity sector, I feel comfortable letting this one grow. If it keeps rolling, I'll need to take my profits and be done with this call buying for now.
I still haven't shied away from my main strategy of selling calls but mainly puts at this time. Too many swing trades made in the last week to mention but it sure is nice taking in all these inflated premiums during volatile times. If you're a seller of options, I hope you have been taking advantage also.Comment -
You sold TSLA hoping for a drop? That means you did good getting out and missing the plunge.
If you still like it, now you can get back in cheaper.
I would sell some at the money calls on it and see if it can be put to you if you want in again. Stock is 875 and the weeklies at the 875 strike bring in $24 per contract. I think the safer route would be to go 35 below to 840 and still bring in $10 pc. All according to how bad you want it.Comment
