1. #1
    stevenash
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    Baltimore Orioles +158 is my play of the evening


    Orioles have been very, very good to me this season, and I like them a lot tonight.

    -168/+158 is, in my opinion, is a whacked out line, and here is why.

    First off, Baltimore is actually the better team, sitting on top of the AL East,3 games better than the last place Red Sox.

    I've seen Wei-Yin Chen pitch a few times this season, impressed with his arsenal.
    He's a control specialist who works around 92mph with a plus breaking ball as his put-away pitch.
    That 92 mph heater looks 100 after he throws that curve of his, I'm telling you people, he has a serious Uncle Charlie.

    His last start was off, he did have command trouble, but I really think that's an exception, not the rule tonight. All starters will have 6 very good and 6 very bad starts a season, it happens.

    Chen enters tonight 4-2 on the season 3.75 ERA 1.33 WH/IP ratio, (he's better than that 1.33, last start inflated that number) those are good numbers pitching in this division.

    Beckett goes for the Sox tonight, in case you haven't noticed, Beckett isn't that very good any more, sports a mortal 4.26 ERA, WH/IP ratio is actually kind of low, 1.23. but he's good for at least one gopher ball a game, and he doesn't strike out 8.5 a game any more, it's 6.5 a game these days, and, in case you haven't notices, Baltimore can rake with the NY Yankees and Texas Rangers of the world.
    Adam Jones is having a MVP type season, won't win it, but he's .312 16-35 and is 11-35 (.314) lifetime versus Beckett. Chavez is .370 (10 for 27) Mark Reynolds has taken Josh deep twice, Andino at the top of the order is 5 for 12 against Beckett, Hardy spanks him, even Wieters.

    Overall Orioles are 45 for 153 (.296) lifetime against Beckett, I took Markakis out of the equation, now some of you don't put much credence in lifetime hitters versus pitchers, but I do, I have a large sample size of 153, and 4 regulars hit Beckett hard, I can't ignore that data.

    Love the Orioles at a very generous +158, I personally think the line is 18 cents off in my favor, and I am going to exploit that 3* If it goes south, it goes south, so be it, but I can see another Reynolds bomb or Adam Jones going deep, and I can see a 5th inning Beckett exit.





    Points Awarded:

    ParlayininHTown gave stevenash 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    GamblerSpirit
    TheCentaur, Spankie gone fishing :(
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    Bro, I been following your leans for the last month or so, but you seem to know your sports (in this case MLB), so I'll tail you this one time, and hopefully I don't regret it. Good luck buddy!

  3. #3
    will2survive
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    I don't see anything special about Chen and I wouldn't touch this game. Beckett is inconsistent; he's either Cy Young or Hideki Irabu (RIP) but Chen had a poor outing at Tampa and also pitched poorly against the Sox earlier in the season. I love hitters like Hardy, Weiters, and Jones but when Beckett is on, he's one of the best. Chen doesn't thrill me either way. Good luck

  4. #4
    Ra77er
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    Going along with you Steve, good luck to us

    Ticket Accepted Date Risk To Win Status Wager
    123925241-1 6/6/12 2:41pm $250.00 $395.00 Pending 6/6/12 7:10pm MLB Baseball 921 Baltimore Orioles +158* vs Boston Red Sox (W Chen - L must Start J Beckett - R must Start)

  5. #5
    stevenash
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    @ Will2Survive:
    Chen was off last game, yes, I've seen two of his starts, and the both times I've seen him he was filthy.
    I can't resist the +158, pass, tail or fade, it's all good.

    Your input is always welcome.

  6. #6
    Gndias
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    don't like the o's...but can never go against steve....i always loose

  7. #7
    brahmabull117
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    Steve I'm usually on board with your picks but I'm baffled by your positive opinion of Chen. This guy is just not a good pitcher - he's given up 13 earned runs just in his last 3 outings (and he gave up 4 runs in 5 innings in an earlier start against Boston). His 1.33 whip is usually more indicative of an era around 4.5 (so he's due for some regression). The Sox offense has been red hot as they've averaged about 6-7 runs a game at home over the last month or so. The Sox seem to be a lock to score at least 5-6 runs

  8. #8
    ThaTopMoron
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    ^^^^ we know Nash has a winner now

  9. #9
    Ra77er
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThaTopMoron View Post
    ^^^^ we know Nash has a winner now



  10. #10
    samgurt
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    Quote Originally Posted by brahmabull117 View Post
    Steve I'm usually on board with your picks but I'm baffled by your positive opinion of Chen. This guy is just not a good pitcher - he's given up 13 earned runs just in his last 3 outings (and he gave up 4 runs in 5 innings in an earlier start against Boston). His 1.33 whip is usually more indicative of an era around 4.5 (so he's due for some regression). The Sox offense has been red hot as they've averaged about 6-7 runs a game at home over the last month or so. The Sox seem to be a lock to score at least 5-6 runs
    O's RRL +230

  11. #11
    You mad bro
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    Quote Originally Posted by samgurt View Post
    O's RRL +230

    im like seconds away from pullin the trigger on that one hahaha

  12. #12
    stevenash
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    I just put my plays out there, nobody has to tail.
    O's get it done tonight.

  13. #13
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThaTopMoron View Post
    ^^^^ we know Nash has a winner now



  14. #14
    coop
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    Sources tell me Beckett won the clubhouse beer pong tournament during yesterday's game. I expect a hangover

    O's -1.5 +230

  15. #15
    Jeff Grant
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    Beckett was 1-2 with a 7.03 ERA in four games against the Orioles last year - his highest ERA against any AL team in that span

    Bullpens basically wash each other out in this matchup

  16. #16
    jlee
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    Beckett hasn't faced BAL this season, but last september, his final two starts he allowed 6 runs to Baltimore in short starts.

  17. #17
    john49ers
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    I have 1,800 on redsox moneyline , I think beckett will even up his record tonight , and I will take redsox lineup over O's offenense nice balance tonight I'm sure marlon Byrd will get a spot start , pedroia back in lineup nava, middlebrooks , salatmachhia is doing his thing , youkillis coming around there scoring runs of late without much from
    Adrian gonzo counting on some good key at bats from gonzo I think this will be a good spot for redsox

  18. #18
    No coincidences
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    I highly doubt Chen and/or Beckett will ultimately decide this bet.

  19. #19
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    I highly doubt Chen and/or Beckett will ultimately decide this bet.


    Chen will get hit for 3-5+ runs in this game, there's no doubt in my mind about that. I'm just having a hard time gauging how Beckett will pitch. He's been so up and down this year and then he was terrible against Baltimore last year

  20. #20
    JMon
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    like Balt here too...bol

  21. #21
    PedroG
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    thats a good price, Ill give it a shot .... Thanks for telling us why you like it ( anybody can come in here and say just bet em and thank me later ..)

  22. #22
    a4u2fear
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    lets get it steve, love the pick

  23. #23
    Grits n' Gravy
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    I won't touch this game but Mr. Nash's logic for the play is very sound. He is a consistent capper and a gentleman. Good luck.

  24. #24
    thebestthereis
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    The funniest thing here is that when Beckett is +145 vs Lee a couple weeks ago nobody comes a callin. Now he is -160 vs Chen Ming Wang or whatever the fukking guys name is and their sucking his dick. It's amazing ...yet it's not amazing how stupid people are. It's Baltimore here or nothing, that's it period.

  25. #25
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by thebestthereis View Post
    The funniest thing here is that when Beckett is +145 vs Lee a couple weeks ago nobody comes a callin. Now he is -160 vs Chen Ming Wang or whatever the fukking guys name is and their sucking his dick. It's amazing ...yet it's not amazing how stupid people are. It's Baltimore here or nothing, that's it period.

    probably because Cliff Lee is much much much better than Wang. Wang will get hammered in this game, only way sox lose is if beckett and the bullpen gives up 6-10 runs IMO (which is totally possible, if maybe not probable)

  26. #26
    You mad bro
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    Quote Originally Posted by brahmabull117 View Post
    probably because Cliff Lee is much much much better than Wang. Wang will get hammered in this game, only way sox lose is if beckett and the bullpen gives up 6-10 runs IMO (which is totally possible, if maybe not probable)

    lol .... beckett isnt the same old beckett


    i expect a high scoring game ...

    prob a 7-5 or even 8-7 win from either team

  27. #27
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by You mad bro View Post
    lol .... beckett isnt the same old beckett


    i expect a high scoring game ...

    prob a 7-5 or even 8-7 win from either team

    that wouldn't necessarily surprise me. Beckett's been fantastic at times but he's also had 3 or 4 miserable starts

  28. #28
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grits n' Gravy View Post
    I won't touch this game but Mr. Nash's logic for the play is very sound. He is a consistent capper and a gentleman. Good luck.
    Thank you for that, I can have my testy moments, but that was a classy post.

  29. #29
    Da Manster!
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    Not a bad play, SteveNash!....GL to you!.........I played this game as well....did the over 8.5!.......and also the Cleveland/Detroit game over 9!...Even units on each game!

  30. #30
    stevenash
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    Aviles SS
    Pedroia 2B
    Youkilis 1B
    Ortiz DH
    Middlebrooks 3B
    Gonzalez RF
    Saltalamacchia C
    McDonald LF
    Byrd CF
    (Beckett P)

  31. #31
    face
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    anyone else like reds -1.5? +130, i think they shell lincoln

  32. #32
    rumnblack
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    Quote Originally Posted by face View Post
    anyone else like reds -1.5? +130, i think they shell lincoln
    yes. And yes. In that park Lincoln could be gone by the 4th

  33. #33
    mp5070
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThaTopMoron View Post
    ^^^^ we know Nash has a winner now

  34. #34
    Jesus Christ
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    Tailing ya here..best of luck

  35. #35
    Khiaao
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    Going in

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