1. #1
    stevenash
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    Baltimore Orioles +161 is my play of the evening

    Las Vegas odds makers one again (imo) over pricing the New York Yankees at home, and showing no love for the Baltimore Orioles.

    Ivan Nova starts for the Yankees, he's an overachiever, yes, but the league is catching up to him, if not caught up to him.

    Baltimore Oriole meat of the order, Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Chris Davis, pretty much have their way with Nova.
    Overall, the roster hits Nova well, .286 (31-109) Wieters especially makes Nova his personal meat puppet, 5 for 11 lifetime, 2 of those five hits are big flies.

    Jake Arrieta has some success versus the Yankees in the past. Yankees are 28 for 117 (.239) versus Arrieta. He does have some trouble with Granderson though, 5 for 16 with two taters. Jeter and Tex can hit him, but not for damage.
    Cano hasn't touched him in the past, Swisher is 0 for 16 lifetime (not in the lineup)

    Another thing I want to point out about Arrieta is his WHIP ration, a very impressive 1.09.
    ERA is mediocre at 4.45, is striking out batters (24 so far this season)
    The reason for the 1.09:4:45 ratio is the two homers given up last start to Oakland.

    If Arietta keeps the Yankees in the park tonight, and it's not a home run hitting night weather wise tonight, damp, cool and raw, raining most of the day, I see an Oriole cruise job win. Because the Orioles,I believe, will rake Nova.

    I still like Arietta in this spot at a very generous +161, Buck Showalter treats these games like playoff games, Arrieta is not trash (not Cy Young, but not trash) and Nova has come back down to earth.

    2* Baltimore at +161 is my play


    BALTIMORE ORIOLES CAREER STATISTICS VS. IVAN NOVA
    BATTER AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
    Ryan Adams 3 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 .333 .333 .667 1.000
    Robert Andino 11 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 .091 .091 .182 .273
    Wilson Betemit 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 .400 .400 .600 1.000
    Endy Chavez 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
    Chris Davis 7 4 1 0 0 1 0 1 .571 .571 .714 1.286
    J.J. Hardy 14 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 .143 .143 .214 .357
    Adam Jones 13 4 0 0 0 2 0 3 .308 .267 .308 .574
    Nick Markakis 12 4 2 0 0 0 4 1 .333 .500 .500 1.000
    Ronny Paulino 5 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 .400 .400 .400 .800
    Nolan Reimold 12 3 1 0 0 0 1 3 .250 .308 .333 .641
    Mark Reynolds 10 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 .200 .333 .300 .633
    Brian Roberts 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .667 1.000
    Matt Wieters 11 5 1 0 2 3 1 0 .455 .500 1.091 1.591
    Totals 109 31 11 0 2 9 8 20 .284 .328 .440 .768

  2. #2
    as99
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    On the opposite side.

  3. #3
    BigDaddy
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    Quote Originally Posted by as99 View Post
    On the opposite side.

    same here

    1st 5

    - 1/2

  4. #4
    stevenash
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    ^
    all good

  5. #5
    kfranz31
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    maybe orioles money line but not the straight up side

  6. #6
    stevenash
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    ^
    money line is +161, you mean *run line*?

  7. #7
    dj_destroyer
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    I've learned this past month to not doubt stevenash...

    Guy is sharp... I kinda liked Nova here but he's right, Baltimore is a good look.

  8. #8
    KingJD31
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    took spankies and under, nova has won 15 straight decisions cant go wrong, but I like arrieta's stuff capable to throw a no hitter any day

  9. #9
    dodger33
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    Yanks haven't lost a series at home in like a year. I am not sure what nova's deal is. Well probably his control but he has some great stuff. As always I like and aprreciate your analysis Nash.

  10. #10
    KingJD31
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    literally the second I posted that homerun wieters, not saying a word anymore

  11. #11
    ebbearsfb1
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    Soon as I put it on homerun, just thre my yankee ticket out, I need a break can't pick a winner to save my life... I play juiced plays I lose,play dogs I lose... yankees sucks

  12. #12
    qsilver335
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    The O's are looking good so far. I am on it as well, I was able to get it last night at +165. Good luck!

  13. #13
    a4u2fear
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    This hamburger is fukkin good!

  14. #14
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    This hamburger is fukkin good!
    Cheese on that burger?

  15. #15
    dj_destroyer
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    Extra cheese for me... stevenash making my account swell!

  16. #16
    stevenash
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    ^
    thanks, I'm nothing special, 2 things, my passion is baseball, been my passion since I was seven, and I'm a numbers freak, I enjoy crunching the numbers every day, as long as you guys are respectful, I don't mind sharing.

  17. #17
    blackeyeshamus
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    ^
    thanks, I'm nothing special, 2 things, my passion is baseball, been my passion since I was seven, and I'm a numbers freak, I enjoy crunching the numbers every day, as long as you guys are respectful, I don't mind sharing.

  18. #18
    Samfourteen
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    Steve Nash for president!!!!!

  19. #19
    paco
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    Great work Nash!!!



    Chipppopooerrrrrrrrr!!!


    What a game in Atl!

  20. #20
    dj_destroyer
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    ^
    thanks, I'm nothing special, 2 things, my passion is baseball, been my passion since I was seven, and I'm a numbers freak, I enjoy crunching the numbers every day, as long as you guys are respectful, I don't mind sharing.
    I've learned no matter how hot you run... a couple bad days and the birdies come out. Keep it going though, clear and simple, stick to the basics.


  21. #21
    Pete0
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    ^
    thanks, I'm nothing special, 2 things, my passion is baseball, been my passion since I was seven, and I'm a numbers freak, I enjoy crunching the numbers every day, as long as you guys are respectful, I don't mind sharing.


  22. #22
    thechaoz
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    Great call on the orioles, congrats

  23. #23
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer View Post
    I've learned no matter how hot you run... a couple bad days and the birdies come out. Keep it going though, clear and simple, stick to the basics.

    True, but I'm strictly a doggy player, with a few short faves thrown in, if I lose, it's a flat wager, you'll neversee me post a -150 or greater fave, you'll rarely see me post a -130 or higher fave.

    Nothing sticks out yet today so far, I'm not laying -175 with Nieman, but that's the logical play, I might try Phelps with NYY tonight at -133, kids stuff is incredible.

  24. #24
    as99
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    Steve Nash great call. I'll take the loss, would never have seen Yankees being shutout.

    Keep it up, like your analysis of games.

  25. #25
    BigDaddy
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    nice call nash

    you were spot on


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