1. 05-01-12 06:54 PM #1
    Scratch
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    Kentucky Derby Article

    last year an article was written by SBR Staff that narrowed the Derby field down to 2 horses based upon history and past trends. One of the horses was Animal Kingdom that went on to win at 20-1 odds I believe.

    Has this article been written for this years Derby?
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  2. 05-01-12 08:06 PM #2
    mikemca
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    Think you have something confused , maybe someone picked him but he sure didn't have any history or trends on his side.


    He was the first horse to have never raced on dirt to win the derby.The first since 1956 to win off a 6 week layoff and I know Big Brown won on less but he was the first since 1918 to win in 5th career race.

    The only things he had going for him were that he closed strong in his prep and he was working really well leading up to the derby.
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  3. 05-01-12 08:11 PM #3
    Br0nxer
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    Think you have something confused , maybe someone picked him but he sure didn't have any history or trends on his side.


    He was the first horse to have never raced on dirt to win the derby.The first since 1956 to win off a 6 week layoff and I know Big Brown won on less but he was the first since 1918 to win in 5th career race.

    The only things he had going for him were that he closed strong in his prep and he was working really well leading up to the derby.

    mike who do you like this year
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  4. 05-01-12 08:14 PM #4
    Poppa Catfish
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    Think you have something confused , maybe someone picked him but he sure didn't have any history or trends on his side.


    He was the first horse to have never raced on dirt to win the derby.The first since 1956 to win off a 6 week layoff and I know Big Brown won on less but he was the first since 1918 to win in 5th career race.

    The only things he had going for him were that he closed strong in his prep and he was working really well leading up to the derby.
    No he is right, I remember that post as well. I wish I remember who did it, but they laid out the ground work for the selection in great detail.
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  5. 05-01-12 08:23 PM #5
    chico2663
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    not true he ran at turfway park
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  6. 05-01-12 08:26 PM #6
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by chico2663 View Post
    not true he ran at turfway park
    I believe Turfway Park is a synthetic track.
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  7. 05-01-12 08:58 PM #7
    Justin_sane
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    I believe Turfway Park is a synthetic track.
    Bingo.
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  8. 05-01-12 11:23 PM #8
    yamark
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    Ohhhh do I ever remember that article...it was a fantastic breakdown and analysis. I thought it was so useful that I bookmarked it. Moneyline Express was the author and here is the link:

    http://moneylineexpress.mysbrforum.c...cky-derby.html
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  9. 05-01-12 11:42 PM #9
    Louisvillekid1
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    nice article, lets see what his formula produces for this year
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  10. 05-01-12 11:42 PM #10
    Jayvegas420
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    Wasnt Uncle Mo a scratch?
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  11. 05-01-12 11:53 PM #11
    ttwarrior1
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    trend ? /

    well he was the only horse in the field that ran 1 1/4 mile

    I also picked him for that reason
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  12. 05-02-12 12:12 AM #12
    Louisvillekid1
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    His formula produces

    Creative Cause and Dullahan has his 2 top contenders followed by Union Rags and Take Charge Indy...
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  13. 05-02-12 12:28 AM #13
    GOIRISH
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    Take charge Indy for the win
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  14. 05-02-12 05:51 AM #14
    yamark
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    Wasnt Uncle Mo a scratch?
    Yes. He was scratched the day before the race. I believe this guy wrote this right after they drew the PP's.
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  15. 05-02-12 06:08 AM #15
    mikemca
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    Quote Originally Posted by Br0nxer View Post


    mike who do you like this year
    Post positions get drawn today.Don't know yet.


    Quote Originally Posted by chico2663 View Post
    not true he ran at turfway park

    Stick to sports betting.


    Quote Originally Posted by yamark View Post
    Ohhhh do I ever remember that article...it was a fantastic breakdown and analysis. I thought it was so useful that I bookmarked it. Moneyline Express was the author and here is the link:

    http://moneylineexpress.mysbrforum.c...cky-derby.html

    Not to nitpick as that was a very well thought out post but he would have landed squarely on Pants On Fire because of this "Don't pick a horse with a new jockey" rule.Johnny V picked up the mount after Robby Albarado got hurt .
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  16. 05-02-12 07:57 AM #16
    DMBcardinal
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    Wow good article. Looking forward to this years.
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  17. 05-02-12 06:37 PM #17
    Scratch
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    Thanks yamark for the link.

    I'll be sure to keep it this year.

    Thanks LouisvilleKid for the current analysis.
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  18. 05-02-12 07:24 PM #18
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    His formula produces

    Creative Cause and Dullahan has his 2 top contenders followed by Union Rags and Take Charge Indy...
    Good to hear as my top 2 are Unions Rags and Creative Cause. I am looking at using Gemologist and Bodemeister (I know, chalk) underneath.
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  19. 05-02-12 07:41 PM #19
    Louisvillekid1
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    Ion with u lt, but threw out gem
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  20. 05-02-12 07:44 PM #20
    Br0nxer
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    im likin alpha
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  21. 05-02-12 08:16 PM #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Ion with u lt, but threw out gem
    I know gem's speed figures aren't the best but I like his 2.73 dosage,
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  22. 05-02-12 10:57 PM #22
    SBR Chris
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scratch View Post
    last year an article was written by SBR Staff that narrowed the Derby field down to 2 horses based upon history and past trends. One of the horses was Animal Kingdom that went on to win at 20-1 odds I believe.

    Has this article been written for this years Derby?
    Scratch, there will be an article or two getting thrown up shortly and i¨ve put up props already on Friday¨s race at Churchill Downs, glad you liked last years breakdown. You can place your point bets here. Hopefully this year's article will be just as good. I¨ll keep you all updated with the props as they go up...roll on the Derby.


    May 04 - 4:45 PM CHURCHILL DOWNS: 2012 KENTUCKY OAKS: 1 1/8MILES
    1 GRACE HALL +250
    2 BROADWAYS ALIBI +400
    3 ON FIRE BABY +400
    4 SUMMER APPLAUSE +1500
    5 BELIEVE YOU CAN +1000
    6 EDENS MOON +1200
    7 JEMIMAS PEARL +1200
    8 AMIES DINI +1000
    9 AND WHY NOT +1800
    10 KARLOVY +2000
    11 HARD NOT TO LIKE +2000
    12 YARA +3000
    13 COLONIAL EMPRESS +5000
    14 SACRISTY +5000
    Last edited by SBR Chris; 05-02-12 at 11:01 PM.
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  23. 05-02-12 11:06 PM #23
    imack
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    A buddy of mine called the winner AND The tri last year and my 9-year old wanted to bet some of his piggy bank on it. My wife (admirably) kiboshed his gambling and the little guy is still pissed. Probably best if he loses his first several bets so he isn't here hanging with you degenerates in ten years.
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  24. 05-03-12 07:25 AM #24
    BOA12
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    with u on alpha
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  25. 05-03-12 01:40 PM #25
    SBR Chris
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    Preview and our odds.
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  26. 05-03-12 01:54 PM #26
    Madison
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    Think you have something confused , maybe someone picked him but he sure didn't have any history or trends on his side.


    He was the first horse to have never raced on dirt to win the derby.The first since 1956 to win off a 6 week layoff and I know Big Brown won on less but he was the first since 1918 to win in 5th career race.

    The only things he had going for him were that he closed strong in his prep and he was working really well leading up to the derby.
    Hey Mike,

    Gonna be betting as much of the card as I can watch from the couch. Will you be offering a few opinions on the entire card for us challenged handicappers?
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  27. 05-03-12 02:32 PM #27
    mikemca
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madison View Post
    Hey Mike,

    Gonna be betting as much of the card as I can watch from the couch. Will you be offering a few opinions on the entire card for us challenged handicappers?

    Yeah definitely,Saturday's card is reaaaaallly wide open though which is a good thing but it is going to be hard to nail every race.Hopefully I can hit one or two big ones.
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  28. 05-03-12 02:52 PM #28
    blackbox
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    GREAT input in this thread- love to watch these races. However way too horses to follow. My 2 favorite gentlemen whose opinions are respected most highly are both named Mike. Mr. MikeMca the above poster, and Mike Batagglia.;sp wrong please excuse] AND Mike hit the nail on yhe head with a remark about wagering on horses for myself. I stick to sports handicapping and follow the horses. Mike you know Walt Matson? formally from Tahoe. Good day gentlemen and my sincere good luck.
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  29. 05-03-12 05:22 PM #29
    DanL32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Br0nxer View Post
    im likin alpha
    same
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  30. 05-03-12 05:45 PM #30
    unluckysob
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    AGREE---if a young gambler hits first few bets-----thinks its easy---
    Quote Originally Posted by imack View Post
    A buddy of mine called the winner AND The tri last year and my 9-year old wanted to bet some of his piggy bank on it. My wife (admirably) kiboshed his gambling and the little guy is still pissed. Probably best if he loses his first several bets so he isn't here hanging with you degenerates in ten years.
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  31. 05-04-12 07:39 AM #31
    Ketch
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    Is there a write up for this year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    His formula produces

    Creative Cause and Dullahan has his 2 top contenders followed by Union Rags and Take Charge Indy...
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  32. 05-04-12 08:15 AM #32
    Louisvillekid1
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    No I just ran the numbers
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  33. 05-04-12 10:23 AM #33
    Madison
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    Yeah definitely,Saturday's card is reaaaaallly wide open though which is a good thing but it is going to be hard to nail every race.Hopefully I can hit one or two big ones.
    Much appreciated. I'll be looking for your post. Thx!
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  34. 05-04-12 10:32 AM #34
    stuntin909
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    thanks for the info guys. very useful
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